When Do You Predict GF DVC Will Open For Sales?

[tjkraz]

How did the announcement about Eagle Pines play out? I remember seeing artist renderings for it and didn't they do that also for Aulani?

They did issue a press release before construction even began, but that was nearly 10 years ago. Their--ahem--attitude toward release of information has changed a bit since then.

If memory serves, Eagle Pines was announced in late-September 2001--a couple weeks after 9/11. As time passed and the full impact of the travel slowdown became apparent, EP fell by the wayside.

In January or February 2002 Saratoga Springs was handed the reins. That's after Disney decided it made most sense to close the Disney Institute. I don't know what official statements they ever made with regard to Eagle Pines. Perhaps none. But we all know the end result.

In the case of Aulani, they announced with great fanfare back in 2007 (?) when the land was purchased. Took about a year before groundbreaking commenced.

I'd say all of the recent announcements are very measured decisions. In the case of BLT, they avoided an announcement for so long because they were afraid it would negatively impact SSR and AKV sales. (Apparently they were right on that one since BLT has far out-sold the other two over the last 3 years.) Same rules could hold true for GF.

With Aulani, they probably felt they had more to gain by letting members (and prospects) know that a Hawaii resort was in the works. "Buy BLT and in a few years you can use the points to stay in Hawaii." I don't think they lost a lot of sales from people who decided to wait for Aulani instead of buying BLT, VGC, AKV or SSR.

 

[dizkrazkate]

I would venture to guess it will get announced spring of 2012, with sales beginning later that fall, with an opening of 2013.

 

[DVC Dude]

GFV will probably start to sell at $160pp and eventually break the $200pp a year or two later.

 

[drusba]

They did issue a press release before construction even began, but that was nearly 10 years ago. Their--ahem--attitude toward release of information has changed a bit since then.

If memory serves, Eagle Pines was announced in late-September 2001--a couple weeks after 9/11. As time passed and the full impact of the travel slowdown became apparent, EP fell by the wayside.

In January or February 2002 Saratoga Springs was handed the reins. That's after Disney decided it made most sense to close the Disney Institute. I don't know what official statements they ever made with regard to Eagle Pines. Perhaps none. But we all know the end result.

Eagle Pines had one press release on July 23, 2001 (Google: "disney unnamed eagle pines DVC resort july 2001") and there were even some artist's renderings (Google images: "disney eagle pines artist's rendering") of the resort released at that time, and then it was never heard from again. Disney did not even call it Eagle Pines since it had no name at the time. 9/11 put everything on hold. Disney shut down Disney Village area soon after 9/11; and in 2002 SSR was announced. Nothing was ever said again about Eagle Pines. Its complete, never-to-be-resurrected death was confirmed when Disney and Four Seasons announced in March 2007 that Four Seasons would be building in that Eagle Pines/Osprey Ridge golf course area. (Note, the Four Seasons resort has itself been significantly delayed as a result of the recession with opening now estimated in 2014).

 

[mjc2003]

GFV will probably start to sell at $160pp and eventually break the $200pp a year or two later.

My question is, is there a breaking point at which people won't buy in and what is it? I see them with mostly "premium" point rooms, MK views or "water view" or the like. Using the BLT point chart as a guide, this would mean the average 1 BR will be about 310 points for a week; the average 2 BR will be about 410.

At $200, that means it's going to cost over $60-80,000 for a buy in for 1 weeks worth of points. Add to that the dues, about $12-$1600 per year. So if you buy enough for a 2 BR, after 15 years you've spent approx $105k for 15 weeks vacation. That's 7k per week for just a room.

For a 1 BR, you are still talking about nearly 80k with MF's. That's $760+ per night for 15 years.

I get that people will pay these prices for GF for a few nights or a week. But I don't know that those prices are sustainable or logical over a longer term.I also think at those prices, nobody with GFV point will want to use those points outside of GFV. I personally wouldn't want to spend so much that I lost my flexibility.

 

[dizfan]

For GF, it depends entirely on whether or not they plan to convert existing rooms to DVC. If yes, then they could announce and begin selling any day now. Rooms could be ready by summer 2012.

But if all of the villas will be new construction, we're probably looking at a late-'13 / early-'14 opening and no announcement for approx 18 months.

Interestingly, TSMIII posted some links to documents that appear to be related to VGF on the OCC.
One had an expiration date of December 31, 2013.

The other was related to work for the model units at SSR and had an expiration date of June 30, 2013.

 

[CMOORE185]

My question is, is there a breaking point at which people won't buy in and what is it? I see them with mostly "premium" point rooms, MK views or "water view" or the like. Using the BLT point chart as a guide, this would mean the average 1 BR will be about 310 points for a week; the average 2 BR will be about 410.

At $200, that means it's going to cost over $60-80,000 for a buy in for 1 weeks worth of points. Add to that the dues, about $12-$1600 per year. So if you buy enough for a 2 BR, after 15 years you've spent approx $105k for 15 weeks vacation. That's 7k per week for just a room.

For a 1 BR, you are still talking about nearly 80k with MF's. That's $760+ per night for 15 years.

I get that people will pay these prices for GF for a few nights or a week. But I don't know that those prices are sustainable or logical over a longer term.I also think at those prices, nobody with GFV point will want to use those points outside of GFV. I personally wouldn't want to spend so much that I lost my flexibility.

When they sell a new property you get 50 years of vacations not 15. So if you use your 2 bedroom scenerio sold at $200 pp and figuring dues, it would cost about $450 per night. That is still too high of a number to be worth it. To me BLT is selling at $150 pp because they have very few points left and feel they can get some people unaware of resale to bite on that price because they want BLT, or sell to existing members looking for a small amount of points that are hard to find resale. I really believe they will start GF at about $140 with a $20 to $25 discount letting you in at about $120 pp. Just my opinion of course.

 

[tjkraz]

My question is, is there a breaking point at which people won't buy in and what is it?

Certainly every time Disney raises prices, they alienate a portion of their market. But only time will tell if there is some ceiling that has been reached at which point prices are unsustainable.

The economy will play a role in that, too. Back in the fall of 2008, BLT debuted at a price of $120 per point with incentives around $10-12. Hundreds of contracts were sold at that level. But in the months following the stock market decline / recession, by spring 2009 they piled on incentives which brought prices into the low $90s.

There is no firm ceiling--Disney will continue to probe the waters, weighing the impact of price increases and adding extra incentives when sales need a boost.

I get that people will pay these prices for GF for a few nights or a week. But I don't know that those prices are sustainable or logical over a longer term.

I agree with this to the extent that I don't see members continually adding-on at $150 per point. But there are always new customers entering the pipeline--each of whom are candidates for a piece of GF.

I also think at those prices, nobody with GFV point will want to use those points outside of GFV. I personally wouldn't want to spend so much that I lost my flexibility.

Initially that may be the thought but time has a way of tempering those emotions. After 5 or 10 or 20 years or ownership, I don't think most members will particularly care how much they paid once they decide they want to try a BoardWalk or Aulani stay, or a Disney cruise on points.

 

[wbl2745]

GFV will probably start to sell at $160pp and eventually break the $200pp a year or two later.

I would think that a wide range of point prices in purchasing directly from DVD would cause problems. The only advantage in purchasing VGF points at $160pp is in getting the home resort advantage of booking before the rest of DVC.

It would seem more likely to me that the point costs at a VGF resort of the rooms would be higher. This would require buyers to purchase more points for a given unit to stay the same length of time. Consider the cost of a 1 bedroom for 1 week at the Villas at the Grand Californian during the Adventure season (lowest cost), which is 235 points. At OKW the same season and room type is 157 points.

I wouldn't be surprised if all of the active selling resorts (SSR, AKV, Aulani, and "VGF") might have very similar price per point, maybe $10 difference, but that the number of points you need to purchase to stay in a given room type would differ significantly.

 

[spiceycat]

Since BLT is currently at $150 with incentives of $8-12 off, I'd say that's the ballpark you're looking at for Grand Floridian. If they started selling tomorrow, they could go a little heavier on the incentives to attract some kneejerk add-on sales. Maybe $150 less $15 for a 100+ add-on. But no way it would be any lower than that (IMO)--and it could be even higher (say $160 base with $10 off.)

tim really think they will find some what to move up BLT price before it sell outs to $200 - so they can start GF at $250.

they have been moving up BLT price all year for no reason (at least to me)

 

[CMOORE185]

tim really think they will find some what to move up BLT price before it sell outs to $200 - so they can start GF at $250.

they have been moving up BLT price all year for no reason (at least to me)

There comes a point when it costs more than it is worth. If it got as high as $200 to $250, I've got to think it is getting close to that point where it is not worth it. That is why I do not think it will get even close to that high, but I could be wrong.

 

[spiceycat]

There comes a point when it costs more than it is worth. If it got as high as $200 to $250, I've got to think it is getting close to that point where it is not worth it. That is why I do not think it will get even close to that high, but I could be wrong.

definitely understand - but there is no reason to kept putting the price of BLT up - unless it is so people will not be surprised at the price of GF.

 

[Greysword]

If I were advising management on pricing, I would make this suggestion: price VGF for the flagship market it is becoming a part of, and use the resort to enhance sales at AKV.

In more detail, I would price VGF between $200-$230/point retail. I would then offer a very short (and heavily lauded) window for pre-sales to current DVC members at a 20% discount ($160-$184 per point), heralded as a perk (maybe even offered only to members with direct bought points from other resorts).

Once sales open for the general public, I would heavily extol the virtues of owning a part of the WDW flagship resort, especially all the benefits (tangible, intangible, and possibly social) of DVC and the GF resort on the tour and sales presentations.

I wouldn't offer many discounts (maybe 5%-10%), since VGF will likely sell the limited number of points without the need for this. Instead if a potential customer felt sticker shock at the current price point, sales should "come to their rescue" by offering AKV points (at the current sales price w/discounts) as an alternative, making it clear (and reiterating frequently) that AKV points may be used at the seven-month mark for VGF rooms!

I feel this strategy will work for several reasons:

1) VGF points will be limited in number compared to BLT, and will be the only MK resort at that time for sale.

2) The high price point is to be expected at WDW's flagship resort. Celebrities and more affluent families will likely be willing to pay this price without discounts simply for the relative privacy and access to the GF amenities.

3) Members on these boards have already mentioned that they will not be purchasing VGF points due to the costs, and this is likely to be reflected by the public at-large. New members who can not afford VGF are likely to accept AKV as a significantly less expensive alternative to getting VGF rooms.

In the end, it is a win-win for WDW.

1) By offering a pre-sale for existing members, DVC is answering the call for more perks and benefits.

2) By holding firm on the price, DVD will earn significantly more per point in the initial year (or more) and provide the exclusive feel to both the GF resort and for those who purchase at a high price point.

3) I believe AKV points will be sold more rapidly, as they will appear to be a bargain in comparison.

4) If VGF sells out relatively rapidly (within 2.5 years), then DVD will know any DVC at the Poly could be priced just as high, since the Poly appears to be the most sought after potential DVC resort on Earth!

Those are my thoughts.

 

[dizfan]

they have been moving up BLT price all year for no reason (at least to me)

The average person buying DVC doesn't follow the price changes every month.
By increasing the price for BLT, it makes SSR at $99 and AKV at $120 appear to be a significant bargain.

Perception of a bargain is one of the best ways to sell an item.

 

[CMOORE185]

definitely understand - but there is no reason to kept putting the price of BLT up - unless it is so people will not be surprised at the price of GF.

I think BLT's price is a reflection of it almost being sold out. For people that do not know or are not interested in resale, this is their last chance to buy BLT. It also may appeal to existing owners wanting to buy a small amount of points in a specific use year they are unable to find in the resale market. It is easier to stomach that price if you are buying a small amount of points. I really believe if BLT still had alot of points to sell, it would'nt be priced as high as it is.

 

[tjkraz]

tim really think they will find some what to move up BLT price before it sell outs to $200 - so they can start GF at $250.

they have been moving up BLT price all year for no reason (at least to me)

I wouldn't rule anything out. But to put BLT in perspective, the price started at $120 less incentives back in 2008 and today it's at $150 less incentives. That's only an increase of $10 per year over the 3 years BLT has been selling.

A lot of it depends upon when the announcement occurs. If it's within the next few months (D23 Expo next week?), I still think $150...maybe $160...will be the base. If the announcement doesn't come for a year or two, that base could certainly rise. The economy will play a big role in that.

Generally speaking, I don't know if DVC would be satisfied with the level of sales if they go with a truly elite price. Aulani sales are going to be a challenge. Saratoga Springs is (finally) almost gone. I think a lot of current owners who spent 10-15 years waiting for a monorail resort are happy with BLT. Add-on sales probably won't be as brisk for GF.

They certainly COULD set the price at $200+ and there will be buyers. But again, I'm just not sure if sales would be brisk enough to satisfy the pencil pushers. Would also be tough to sell buyers on an $80 price spread between GF and AKV.

I think DVC will do a lot better with a combination of a modest price increase and a modest increase in point charts (which gives them more points to sell, thus higher profits.)

 

[Shamus]

IMHO -

GF Point requirements will be @ 10-15% above BLT.
This will put GF MK View at nearly 1.5X the VWL/BCV/BWV(PV) point requirements.
(And nearly TWICE that of OKW).

Base price* range for all "Actively Selling" DVC properties will be:
6/1/2012 - $150 - $155
6/1/2013 - $160 - $165
6/1/2014 - $175 - $185
6/1/2015 - $190 - $200
*Individual Property Incentives will vary based on actual vs. projected sales.

Look for a Late 2013 Early 2014 GF Opening.

So I would expect GF pre-sales to be $165 and go to $175 at Opening.
Various Incentives could reduce the actual price to $10-$15 below that.

Again - JMHO

 

[Shamus]

I wouldn't rule anything out. But to put BLT in perspective, the price started at $120 less incentives back in 2008 and today it's at $150 less incentives. That's only an increase of $10 per year over the 3 years BLT has been selling.

Actually it started at $112 and just went up to $140 this past June - But that still comes out to about $10 per year.

 

[Greysword]

They certainly COULD set the price at $200+ and there will be buyers. But again, I'm just not sure if sales would be brisk enough to satisfy the pencil pushers. Would also be tough to sell buyers on an $80 price spread between GF and AKV.

I was thinking this as well, Tim, but is it a negative?

I was thinking; if the volume of points at GF are low (closer to VGC or VWL), would DVD use this high price variance to increase sales at AKV (which does have a high inventory)?

 

[disneynutz]

I wonder if the "Wedding View" room category will have the same level of premium as the BLT "Theme Park" view?

Bill