What's the Next DVC Property?

[Epcot Forever Forever]

poly just killed blt2 in my view

Eh. For now. [glances sideways]

 

[nuhusky123]

zero chance before 2030 opening date in my opinion

 

[hhisc16]

poly just killed blt2 in my view

Interesting. Based on the VP DVC remark during the press release, it sounds like BLT2 might be in the future though.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

zero chance before 2030 opening date in my opinion

I’d say zero before 2026. 2030? I dunno. It’s probably close to a coin flip to me.

 

[RoseGold]

I guess everyone was wrong!

https://www.disboards.com/threads/poly-dvc-expansion-coming-2024.3875848/

 

[Marionnette]

I guess everyone was wrong!

https://www.disboards.com/threads/poly-dvc-expansion-coming-2024.3875848/

Well, not everyone! @Jwaire called it earlier in this thread.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I guess everyone was wrong!

https://www.disboards.com/threads/poly-dvc-expansion-coming-2024.3875848/

Well, except all the people contemplating where the next DVC tower would be constructed (Coronado Springs, BLT2, etc.). Plenty of people, myself included, weren't jumping on the "They won't be building anything new for years now after the Reflections cancellation, and everything will be cheap fast money-grab flips" bandwagon.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Well, not everyone! @Jwaire called it earlier in this thread.

Plenty of us weren't buying into the "no new construction" shtick.

 

[RoseGold]

Well, we can all agree Reflections is dead. For now.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Well, we can all agree Reflections is dead. For now.

I agree that there's no appetite for building an entirely new resort, but significant expansion of existing resorts utilizing existing infrastructure seems to be well within their game plan (DLT, PVBT).

 

[tiana1989]

Also, is Reflections really dead? The concept art released for Poly 2 so far looks similar to Reflections, but with Poly-ish flairs lol. It’ll be interesting once they start releasing interior details to see how similar the two actually are/aren’t.

 

[CraigInPA]

This is what I thought DVC would have done before Poly1 was designed and constructed, and the plan that I was ready to buy into. 8 or more stories up and you'd be able to look across 7 Seas Lagoon right at Cinderella's Castle. I can see a deluxe restaurant on the top floor, with nightly fireworks viewing, being the hottest spot on property. One aspect of this plan is that the new tower is going to have to have its own pool. The current Poly pool is already over crowded, and adding another 100 villas isn't going to work. Architecturally, I think they can recycle the "look", and a smaller version of the footprint, of Aulani and have a winner.

I called it days ago, although the concept art looks less like Aulani and more like any generic waterfront hotel in Florida. Check the pool box, the location, and likely the restaurant on the top floor.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Also, is Reflections really dead? The concept art released for Poly 2 so far looks similar to Reflections, but with Poly-ish flairs lol. It’ll be interesting once they start releasing interior details to see how similar the two actually are/aren’t.

I promise. Yes. It’s dead.

Whatever they build on that spot in the future will be significantly different from what they announced a few years ago.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I promise. Yes. It’s dead.

Whatever they build on that spot in the future will be significantly different from what they announced a few years ago.

I'll keep saying until I'm blue in the face: they need new resort rooms to sell, not new resorts. I'd bet that site sits vacant until it's swallowed by the swamp like Discovery Island.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I'll keep saying until I'm blue in the face: they need new resort rooms to sell, not new resorts. I'd bet that site sits vacant until it's swallowed by the swamp like Discovery Island.

I would take the other side of that bet. It’s shovel ready and on Seven Seas Lagoon; it’s the only plot of land like that.

Now, will it be used for a DVC? I am much more skeptical there.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I would take the other side of that bet. It’s shovel ready and on Seven Seas Lagoon; it’s the only plot of land like that.

Now, will it be used for a DVC? I am much more skeptical there.

I'd like to see the soil report and certs for that land. I know they've dug test pits on at least three occasions. We know they had to leave that pile of overburden in the middle of the TTC parking lot for decades just to get decent consolidation - for a parking lot. Reflections was only a few hundred yards away and didn't enjoy the protection from moisture percolation provided by all that parking lot paving to help it dry out. My gut is that while the Reflections site is/was their first choice, it may have relatively marginal bearing capacity and that they were looking at some significant soil stabilization/underpinning/deep caissons or piers for adequate foundation that made it cost-prohibitive. Buildable versus cost-effective may not always align. As to other uses, I was only really addressing the construction of a Reflections/DLT/BLT/PBVT type tower. Now, something less than a 10-story tower? You'd get better than even odds from me on THAT scenario.

 

[McCrae]

BLT 2026 is my guess.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I find it fascinating that even in this thread, we have people talking about the Reflections project, while placing it in two separate locations. We have the "7 Seas Lagoon" crew who will tell you it was going in the old Mediterranean Resort/Venetian Resort location next to the TTC and that it has now been sodded over, and you also have the "Bay Lake" crew who'll tell you it was going in at the old River Country site and that the location is still strewn with construction debris (cement storm drain pipe, and a big pile of dirt).

Fascinating

 

[Jwaire]

We know where Reflections was going. It was on the River Country site. I didn't realize that was up for debate. We also know from former VP of Resorts Bob Holland that the plot of land between TTC and Contemporary, the site of the proposed Eisner-era Mediterranean Resort, is buildable. (Link)

My random thoughts about PVB2.

There's a lot of discussion online, including from DVCFan, that this has to be a new condo association because it's new construction. I don't think that's going to happen. Here's why.

1) Project Timeline. This project has been in play since before the original Poly DVC flip. Tikiman first discussed it on his Web site back in 2012. It was always a two phase project, the first phase of which was up for debate but end up being the hotel conversion. I have no doubt Disney didn't plan on waiting this long to do Phase 2.

2) Expiration Date. Poly opened in 2015. It expires in 2066. Adding on to the existing condo association just makes sense, since there's going to be 42 years left on the contract when the expansion opens in 2024. This isn't a Wilderness Lodge situation where a 20 year gap exist between phases. For comparison, The Villas at Grand Floridian opened in 2013 and the expansion will open in 2022 (9 year gap).

3) Selling Point: All Room Types. The resort would now have all available room types including deluxe studios, 1 bedroom, 2 bedroom and 3 bedroom units with premium view options. In addition, it would have 2 bedroom bungalows. There's even some speculation there may be a few tower studios. This thing will sell.

4) Reallocation Potential. The bungalows are not being used as expected. If you were going to reallocate points at a resort, this would be one to do it at. There will be a minimal impact to owners because of all the studios, new room types and premium view options. Getting the bungalows down to a 15-20% point premium over the Copper Creek cabins would do a lot for their occupancy.

5) Press Release Language. The language in the press release consistently refers to this an expansion.

Orlando, FL (March 15, 2022) – Today, Disney Vacation Club announced proposed plans to develop new Disney Vacation Club villas at Disney’s Polynesian Village Resort.

“It’s no secret that our Members and Guests love the monorail resorts at Walt Disney World,” said Bill Diercksen, senior vice president and general manager of Disney Vacation Club. “Expanding our Disney Vacation Club offerings at the Polynesian would give our Members and Guests yet another incredible option for staying close to the magic while making vacation memories that last a lifetime.”

Inspired by the early concepts for Disney’s Polynesian Village Resort, the Imagineers of today are honoring the past while furthering the resort story with this innovative addition. Projected to open in late 2024, the proposed vacation ownership property would complement the existing resort and evoke the spirit of the Pacific Islands.

Situated on the shores of Seven Seas Lagoon, the proposed property would join the rest of the resort in offering stunning views of the Magic Kingdom. Proposed plans would offer additional rooms, new recreation offerings and dining options. More information and project details will be shared at a later date.

Since 2015, Disney’s Polynesian Villas & Bungalows has been a favorite resort destination, offering an island paradise in the middle of the magic. Disney’s Polynesian Villas & Bungalows currently has 380 Disney Vacation Club villas, including the largest Deluxe Studios at any Disney Vacation Club resort at Walt Disney World and unique two-bedroom Bora Bora Bungalows, located over the waters of the Seven Seas Lagoon – the first of their kind at Disney.

 

[DonMacGregor]

We know where Reflections was going. It was on the River Country site. I didn't realize that was up for debate. We also know from former VP of Resorts Bob Holland that the plot of land between TTC and Contemporary, the site of the proposed Eisner-era Mediterranean Resort, is buildable. (Link)

“We” know, but others seem not to…just look at how many 7 Seas references there are.