Rents normally go for $12-15/point. MFs are 6, or thereabouts.
So, assume $13/point to rent, $6 if bought. Now, I'm going to make lots of assumptions and you know what people say about assumptions.
Let's also assume an average contract in today's resale world for every other year trips. Just as an example, I'll say AKV 150 points at $85/point.
Let's say you would want to stay a week every other year in at least a 1br if not 2br - due to your DH having his MIL there and growing kids.
So, estimate you'll use 300 points every other year.
Now, let's look 10 yrs out, a decent horizon for
DVC ownership.
300 points x 5 trips at $13/point (inflation will almost certainly push lowest rent price to $13 within 10 years):
$19,500 for five wonderful trips to WDW.
Now, resale:
150 points x $85/point to buy (throw in $500 closing) is $13,250.
MF $6 x 150 pts x 10 yrs = $9,000. (Add $1,000 for creeping MF costs) = $10,000
Total cost to buy - $23,250.
Up front, It's cheaper to rent, in this example by $4,250. But that's not the whole story.
If you sold at 10 years, given historical resale patterns, you'd likely recoup your original investment of $13,250, or close to it. If you made $12,000 from your sale of AKV in 2025, then you'd be in the same place as renting: five great trips, no assets.
Cost: $19,500 to rent.
$11,250 to own.
Much cheaper to own and there is a substantial additional value of being able to control your reservations. I don't think that value could be easily underestimated. Just one blown trip because you couldn't reschedule renting but could have managed your own points affects this equation by thousands of dollars.
I'd buy resale. I did, in fact.