What will DVC have to sell?

[TSMIII]

And don't forget OKW 2057. They had a good quantity of points on hand when the extension was offered and can always ROFR resale 2042 points to convert to 2057 contracts. Coupled with the undeclared segments of AKV, BLT & SSR-THV, I think they'll have more than enough to get them to the first Hawaii declarations/sales. Plus there's always the potential for DVC at National Harbor if Hawaii is delayed.

 

[chris1gill]

If BLT and VGC have only a few months left of sales, what will DVC be selling in six months? I'm not sure how far along the Hawaii project is, but I would think it's pretty far from starting sales.
Is SSR sold, or is there still points there?

Thoughts?

MG

I don't think BLT is within months of selling.... I was just at the Hawaii site 3 days ago and it's really just barely begun, I have a ton of pictures, I just have to separate them out from others I took. They're moving dirt and have 3 walls up currently.... so although they are working all day just about every day minus Sunday, Hawaii is quite a ways off. I think the anticipated date is 2011.

 

[Bob Price]

Maybe SSR Phases 6, 7 and 8?

The gorilla is growing.

 

[JasonDVC]

We added on at BLT at the Boston show. I told our guide that what I really wanted was GF. She said that GF and Poly are coming in the next 5-6 years. I've already started saving. She also said that they are looking at a "ski destination"; they are looking into the possibility of a DVC Cruise ship due to the high level of interest in DVC members trading for DCL cruises; and the plan is to "dot" the resort area with DVC (yes, including Mods and Values).

Not spreading rumors, just relaying what I was told by our guide.

Hawai'i will likely be the bridge to GF and Poly sales and we'll see what comes after that.

 

[Dean]

We bought into VB in January of 2001 and they were just about to begin VWL. It seemed like they were finishing up with VB, but not truly sure when they completely sold out.

I don't think DVC knows when it sold out as well. They announced it as "sold out" at about 11-12 months into sales and around the time BCV started selling. They were anticipating it would finish selling out based on member add ons and those who insisted on owning there. Well that didn't happen so after about 6 months they reopened sales officially for another roughly 6 months. Thus I think that makes BCV the fastest to sell out so far though given it's size and situation, one would expect CA to take that record. I'm thinking BCV was about 13-14 months until announcement give or take a month or so.

 

[arthur06]

We added on at BLT at the Boston show. I told our guide that what I really wanted was GF. She said that GF and Poly are coming in the next 5-6 years. I've already started saving. She also said that they are looking at a "ski destination"; they are looking into the possibility of a DVC Cruise ship due to the high level of interest in DVC members trading for DCL cruises; and the plan is to "dot" the resort area with DVC (yes, including Mods and Values).

Not spreading rumors, just relaying what I was told by our guide.

Hawai'i will likely be the bridge to GF and Poly sales and we'll see what comes after that.

I really don't put any faith in any of these statements! Nothing against you, but a guide will say anything.

GF and Poly would be the most likely to be new DVC's in the future, simply because they are deluxe resorts in prime location with a following.

I don't see values being added to DVC, simply because you can't call DVC a premium product when you are less then premium as an alternative.

If I was to simply guess that DVC was going to put new DVC's at an international or domestic location next, I would be right, wouldn't I?

The Poly and GF rumors won't die! They are just to logical and I think that guides know this.

 

[tjkraz]

I still think a second CR tower makes the most sense as the next big construction project. (That's not to say that they couldn't do something small like conversion of some Grand Floridian buildings in the interim.) Of course, we'll have about a 3-year heads-up if they decide to bulldoze the South Garden Wing. They won't be too successful in deflecting inquiries this time around.

(Could that be part of the reason that DVC seems to currently be pushing BLT points at the expense of the other options? Hard to use the "get 'em while they last!" sales pitch on BLT when you have a second 300-room tower going up next door. Hmmmmmm. )

 

[oakmanner]

Maybe SSR Phases 6, 7 and 8?

We can only hope! I would be in favor of some more condo style DVC units at WDW instead of more hotel style rooms with endless hallways and long walks to get to your room that exist at some of the other DVC resorts.

 

[BostonDisneyKid]

GF and Poly would be the most likely to be new DVC's in the future, simply because they are deluxe resorts in prime location with a following.

I don't see values being added to DVC, simply because you can't call DVC a premium product when you are less then premium as an alternative.

Let it be known my flame retardant suite is on... so flame away !!!
I think the most logical next step for DVC is for them to broden the spectrum of the DVC resorts by providing a non-deluxe, somewhat inexpensive alternative. This conversation has taken place a few times since I have been on the disboards since 2004. I think now more then ever, with the economy being where it is, this would/should be considered and welcomed from the DVD and WDW Corps (maybe not so much from DVC members but I could be wrong). If so, I think the most logical location would be the partially developed, unused location at Pop - The Legendary Years location.

"Legendary Hall" (I.E. This part of the Pop Century Resort's combination registeration, restaurant & retail area). All standing there, empty." (from JimHillmedia.com - photo by Jeff Lang)

"Hourglass Lake, across the Generation Gap Bridge" (from JimHillmedia.com - photo by Jeff Lang)

(from JimHillmedia.com - photo by Jeff Lang)

Parcel ID - 31-24-28-0000-00-005 : Taxable Value - $174,112,221.00 : Land Value - $79,200,000.00 : Building Value - $94,912,221.00 : Taxes Last Paid - $2,439,354.01

As you can see the resort is seperated by hourglass lake and could easily be transformed into something much different then originally intended. The "unused land" is nearly idential to what we know as Pop Century today with it being half of what POP was originally designed to be. They continue to pay taxes on the land and unoccupied buildings to the tune of 2.4 million a year which seems very un-disney-like (to loose money on any venture). This portion of the land parcel was originally intended and declared to be 2880 standard value rooms which could be reconfigured in many ways to provide a DVC Value location. I would think with the infrastructure (plumming, electrical, foundation, building itself, roadways, telecommunications, etc) already being in place it would be a quick build and would fill a void in their portfolio which doesnt exist today.

 

[Dean]

Let it be known my flame retardant suite is on... so flame away !!!
I think the most logical next step for DVC is for them to broden the spectrum of the DVC resorts by providing a non-deluxe, somewhat inexpensive alternative. This conversation has taken place a few times since I have been on the disboards since 2004. I think now more then ever, with the economy being where it is, this would/should be considered and welcomed from the DVD and WDW Corps (maybe not so much from DVC members but I could be wrong). If so, I think the most logical location would be the partially developed, unused location at Pop - The Legendary Years location.

"Legendary Hall" (I.E. This part of the Pop Century Resort's combination registeration, restaurant & retail area). All standing there, empty." (from JimHillmedia.com - photo by Jeff Lang)

"Hourglass Lake, across the Generation Gap Bridge" (from JimHillmedia.com - photo by Jeff Lang)

(from JimHillmedia.com - photo by Jeff Lang)

As you can see the resort is seperated by hourglass lake and could easily be transformed into something much different then originally intended. The "unused land" is nearly idential to what we know as Pop Century today with it being half of what POP was originally designed to be. They continue to pay taxes on the land and unoccupied buildings to the tune of 2.4 million a year which seems very un-disney-like (to loose money on any venture). This portion of the land parcel was originally intended and declared to be 2880 standard value rooms which could be reconfigured in many ways to provide a DVC Value location. I would think with the infrastructure (plumming, electrical, foundation, building itself, roadways, telecommunications, etc) already being in place it would be a quick build and would fill a void in their portfolio which doesnt exist today.

We've had two major rounds of discussion on this issue over the years. IMO it would not be a good choice for the current situation and I don't think it's very feasible to tie it in as a regular part of DVC. However, they could spin it off with some type of interaction with DVC, say a non home, none system priority of 6 months out. Marriott tried this approach with Horizons and it failed. I think it was a good idea but they over priced it. I think Poly, GF and a stand along are far more likely for DVC. I doubt we'll see much if any non theme park related options until we see how HI does and only if it sells well.

 

[BostonDisneyKid]

Dean: We've had two major rounds of discussion on this issue over the years.

Indeed...

Dean: I don't think it's very feasible to tie it in as a regular part of DVC. However, they could spin it off with some type of interaction with DVC, say a non home, none system priority of 6 months out.

I do agree. I think it would need some type of seperate inventory, point structure and/or system as not to reduce the demand/value of the current DVC. Maybe even setup as a seperate corporation possibly, so it would be as if it were a "trade", as is with RCI with an additional cost to stay there ($95.00/7-14 days stays maybe?) in order to reduce demand from current dvc owners booking there for long periods of time; depending on the "trade value" established...

 

[DVCGeek]

(Could that be part of the reason that DVC seems to currently be pushing BLT points at the expense of the other options?

Don't want to argue but BLT has the smallest incentives right now of the 4 active resorts last I checked; how is that "pushing" them? Did I miss something???

 

[tjkraz]

Don't want to argue but BLT has the smallest incentives right now of the 4 active resorts last I checked; how is that "pushing" them? Did I miss something???

All of the recent sales presentations have focused on BLT. DVC is spending the entire month giving tours of the not-yet-opened tower to prospective members. Kidani is already open yet no such events were held there.

By all accounts, the webcasts and Boston regional event held last month were geared almost entirely toward BLT.

With the lower dues and longer contract, BLT should be commanding a higher price. I'm not really sure why DVC tried to sell AKV and BLT at identical prices for a few months.

 

[DVCGeek]

All of the recent sales presentations have focused on BLT. DVC is spending the entire month giving tours of the not-yet-opened tower to prospective members. Kidani is already open yet no such events were held there.

By all accounts, the webcasts and Boston regional event held last month were geared almost entirely toward BLT.

With the lower dues and longer contract, BLT should be commanding a higher price. I'm not really sure why DVC tried to sell AKV and BLT at identical prices for a few months.

OK, I get it and now agree with your pushing comment 100%. I guess I look at things ONLY from a price perspective personally and forgot about marketing efforts entirely! Your part about "should be commanding a higher price" also definately rings true. Duh on my part...

 

[paults]

the Swan and Dolphin they will rename it

THE BELLE AND THE GASTON

and the new theme will be (guess what)

BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

the BEAUTY will be redone for DVC while THE BEAST will be done in a 40% DVC and 60% resort.

 

[DVCGeek]

Hadn't heard anyhting about Disney "taking back" Swan & Dolphin before... Are they on a fixed length lease of some kind where that is a real posability someday?

 

[Maistre Gracey]

All of the recent sales presentations have focused on BLT. DVC is spending the entire month giving tours of the not-yet-opened tower to prospective members. Kidani is already open yet no such events were held there.

By all accounts, the webcasts and Boston regional event held last month were geared almost entirely toward BLT.

With the lower dues and longer contract, BLT should be commanding a higher price. I'm not really sure why DVC tried to sell AKV and BLT at identical prices for a few months.

Very true about the marketing being concentrated on BLT.
Conversely, I hear almost nothing about VGC. Even when we were at the preview center doing my add on, many DVC people seemed shocked that I was adding at VGC.

MG

 

[BostonDisneyKid]

when disney takes back

the Swan and Dolphin they will rename it

I dont think they can "take them back" - Disney owns the land that the Swan and Dolphin are on but doesn’t own the hotels themselves. They are owned in a joint venture by the Tishman Hotel Corp. and MetLife and are operated on behalf of the two companies by the Starwood Corporation which is the company contracted to manage the Swan and Dolphin. Westin owns one of them and the other is under the Sheraton "Brand". Westin and Sheraton are not actual stand alone companies but branded divisions of Starwood.

The Swan/Dolphin are the result of an Isner deal gone bad and he tried to pull out of it long ago after signing the dotted line and was threatened with outrageous lawsuits to the tune of like 300 or 400 million or something like that. Today they'd be worth over a billion so I dont think you will see disney "take back" anything, not without paying out some BIG money which wouldnt be worth it to them; hence why they are there.

 

[tjkraz]

I dont think they can "take them back" - Disney owns the land that the Swan and Dolphin are on but doesn’t own the hotels themselves. They are owned in a joint venture by the Tishman Hotel Corp. and MetLife and are operated on behalf of the two companies by the Starwood Corporation which is the company contracted to manage the Swan and Dolphin. Westin owns one of them and the other is under the Sheraton "Brand". Westin and Sheraton are not actual stand alone companies but branded divisions of Starwood.

The Swan/Dolphin are the result of an Isner deal gone bad and he tried to pull out of it long ago after signing the dotted line and was threatened with outrageous lawsuits to the tune of like 300 or 400 million or something like that. Today they'd be worth over a billion so I dont think you will see disney "take back" anything, not without paying out some BIG money which wouldnt be worth it to them; hence why they are there.

IIRC, the initial deal was reached before Eisner came on board. He tried to break the agreement but relented under the threat of a lawsuit. Disney did get some concessions from Tischman in the process.

The two hotels are covered under a 99 year lease so they won't be going back to Disney anytime soon. And really I don't see why they would be interested. If anything, Disney is expanding this sort of outsourcing in recent years. Similar agreements exist for Shades of Green, the Downtown Disney area hotels, many DTD shops and restaurants and even some theme park restaurants. These deals can be pretty lucrative for Disney as they provide a steady revenue stream while avoiding many of the day-to-day operational headaches.

 

[dizfan]

I did some research on BLT since the last declaration filing date.

From June 18 through July 15 (3pm Central), there have been just under 1300 new contracts recorded at BLT. That's a lot of sales. Of the few recent contracts I looked at, they ranged form early June to late June.

As the rest of the web cast, end of previous member referral, Boston event, and BLT previews sales show up, this number is definitely going up.

They were hoping for 30% new sales just from the 6000 web cast participants. We were part of the first group, received the documents right away, and sent them back. Ours was just recorded, so I'd expect a whole lot more from those events to show up soon.