I'm with y'all: I have a flight to the beach on 8/19, and returning 8/26. It will be interesting to see how it plays.
I think the bigger risk for the 20th is the pilots and flight attendants honoring the pickets
I think this is the issue. If it is just the mechanics, the planes will mostly fly---NW is prepared for that. If the FAs honor the picket, the airline is close to grounded---NWA has 9000 FAs, and the 1000 replacements they have (a) aren't fully trained (unlike the replacement mechanics) and (b) won't cut the mustard except on the most profitable (ocean-hopping) routes. If the pilots honor the picket, then they may as well just close up shop---I am not aware of any replacement pilots in the wings.
If I were a betting man: I'd place a bet that the mechanics are definitely going to strike. The two sides are no where near an agreement. I'd lay good odds (90-10) that the pilots *won't* honor the picket line---they've already agreed to significant cuts, and think the other two unions should follow suit. I'd say its about 60-40 that the FAs *won't* honor the picket; they've been told by their union that their contract allows NW to replace them if they honor the picket. On the other hand, the FAs face the same sort of new contract proposal that the mechanics do---significant layoffs, and 25% pay cuts for the remainder. That might just be enough to push them over the edge.
As for what to do: If you already have
trip insurance, call their help line *now* to see what they will do for you in the event of a strike that (a) stops the airline completely (most will pay for one-way tickets in the same class of service as your canceled flight) or (b) cancels/significantly delays your flight (generally less generous). If you don't have trip insurance, see if there is any company that will still sell you a policy that will cover this. Be very careful: some policies consider the declaration of impasse to be a "strike announcement" and won't pay no matter what. Other policies don't consider impass to be an announcement, because the strike might still not happen. You'll want to call the company underwriting the policy you are considering before committing.
If your insurance will cover a flight, know in advance what your flight options will be, and be ready to call the *instant* the conditions for reimbursement are met. On some policies, that's grounded for 24 or 48 consecutive hours, so those of you flying on the 20th may not be able to do anything right away. However, calling another airline directly and letting the insurance company sort it out later may get you home faster than letting NWA try to rebook you.
If you absolutely, positively, must get somewhere (i.e. you'll lose your job, miss your wedding, what-have-you) then you should buy a fully refundable ticket as a backup RIGHT NOW. Don't wait, because if NW starts cancelling flights, other flights will get full in a hurry. If you don't need it, no problem---you'll get your money back. If you do need it, you'll have it. It won't be reimbursed by NWA, and may not even be covered by applicable insurance, but you won't lose your job/marriage.