What is likely to happen in 2042?

[MJ6987]

Sorry, another newbie question....looking into buying resale and a lot of the ones we are interested in (Beach Club, Boardwalk, etc) have an expiry date of 2042.

Does anyone know, or have a good insight into, what will happen at that point? Are members likely to get the chance to extend (presumably at a cost) as that date approaches or is it best to assume that 2042 is a true end date and that Disney will just absorb the rooms into their own stock?

Thanks.

 

[DVC Doctor]

I personally think either they will offer an extension of 15 years or so to members or they will take it over and do a MAJOR rehab and begin to sell it all over again as a new product.

 

[Msmithmd]

DVC isn't saying. This far out, possibly even the CEO of Disney corp doesn't know.

Rest assured that Disney will do whatever they see as the most efficient route to increased earnings. If that is extensions, they will do that; if a tear down and rebuild, they will go that route.

And this comment isn't intended to criticize DVC or the overall Disney corp. They are good at making money, just like any other Fortune 500 company. They will figure out what is best for the bottom line, and proceed on those terms. Since the DVC members represent some of their most loyal customers, good business practice implies they will want to keep us in the fold. Whether that is good deals on new resorts, or extensions where we currently own, remains to be seen.

In my opinion, the 2042 date shouldn't be a barrier to purchase via the resale market. But in a few more years, it will be one for direct, for those 2042 resorts. DVC might decide at that point to start lowering the direct price for the 2042 expiration resorts. But realistically, that's still a very long way away.

 

[bakerworld]

In 2042 we'll be 86 - possibly still living

 

[chalee94]

Does anyone know, or have a good insight into, what will happen at that point? Are members likely to get the chance to extend (presumably at a cost) as that date approaches or is it best to assume that 2042 is a true end date and that Disney will just absorb the rooms into their own stock?

they actually did offer an extension for my resort (OKW). they tried to charge $15 per pt (later increased to $25 per pt) for points we wouldn't start seeing for about 35 years. it failed miserably - most of us thought that was a terrible deal. (a handful even refused to extend or decline the extension and plan to challenge disney legally to see if they can get the extension for free down the road.)

so a total disaster.

as a result, i don't expect disney to try the extension process again any time soon.

 

[WolfpackFan]

they actually did offer an extension for my resort (OKW). they tried to charge $15 per pt (later increased to $25 per pt) for points we wouldn't start seeing for about 35 years. it failed miserably - most of us thought that was a terrible deal.

I think the problem with that fiasco was that it was done so far ahead of time. I bet if they tried it in say 2037, a lot of people would buy in. Especially as original owners start leaving their contracts to their children. I know we will be leaving our three contracts to our daughter and she will probably want to extend the contract as 2042 approaches. Interesting topic.

 

[tjkraz]

The OKW extension was overpriced, poorly-received and its methodology may have been illegal.

One of the problems is that they cannot selectively extend just a portion of the points at a given resort. It's all or nothing. As appealing as BWV and BCV are, thousands of owners would refuse to extend due to their age (too old to use extra years) or for financial reasons.

My BWV contract is pretty small. But given the fact that I'll be in my 70s when '42 rolls around, I have no desire to give Disney hundreds or thousands of dollars to extend further. Many owners would feel the same, essentially leaving Disney as owner of the contracts which are not extended.

When 2043 rolls around, DVD will own millions of OKW points--which are only good for 14 more years--from owners who did not wish to extend. Simply put, there will not be a brisk market for OKW points which are only good for 14 more years.

With resorts like BoardWalk and Beach Club, I really don't see why they would pursue short-term extensions. Most sensible course of action is to let the contracts expire, refurbish the rooms, and sell new 50 year contracts.

 

[chalee94]

I think the problem with that fiasco was that it was done so far ahead of time. I bet if they tried it in say 2037, a lot of people would buy in.

if they do offer something in the 2030s, i would bet it will cost considerably more than $25 per pt...much closer to whatever the then-current direct cost of a new resort will be.

 

[MJ6987]

Thanks all for your input. As I thought, there are no guarantees right now.

Just that we are in early stages of thinking about DVC (but once I decide on something I can be pretty decisive!). If it wasn't for the 2042 expiry, one of the Epcot resorts would probably be my clear choice but I will "only" be 68 by then and hopefully have a few good years in me! This is making me consider other options like BLT and AKL.

By the way, mods, sorry I keep putting things in the wrong DVC forum!

 

[Msmithmd]

If you think you will consistently go for food and wine festival, an Epcot resort is your best choice. Also if you consistently want BCV in the summer months.

Otherwise, if it were me, I would pick a later expiration date in your circumstance.

The main thing is to buy where you think you want to stay, not where you would still have access 28 years from now.

DVC is a luxury purchase. It really doesn't make sense to make that purchase solely based on potential additional returns that are 28 years down the road. There's a lot of life changes that can happen between now and then.

I'm not saying there isn't value in a later expiration. Clearly there is, if you can confidently anticipate still wanting to go to Disney in 2043. Just saying that since DVC is a strictly luxury purchase, then purchase what you want, rather than what "makes sense on paper."

Good luck with your decision.

 

[Greysword]

When 2043 rolls around, DVD will own millions of OKW points--which are only good for 14 more years--from owners who did not wish to extend. Simply put, there will not be a brisk market for OKW points which are only good for 14 more years.

In the case of OKW, I could conceivably see them offering to extend the remaining owners for free to the 2057 date, just so DVD would not be required to pay maintenance fees on these points until they can take control of all points within the resort.

 

[disneynutz]

As posted it will be about the numbers and money.

Will it be more profitable to offer an extension and let members pay for the rehabs or tear down the buildings and build new larger buildings using current standards with higher point requirements and more units to be sold.

Bill

 

[paults]

Thanks all for your input. As I thought, there are no guarantees right now.

Just that we are in early stages of thinking about DVC (but once I decide on something I can be pretty decisive!). If it wasn't for the 2042 expiry, one of the Epcot resorts would probably be my clear choice but I will "only" be 68 by then and hopefully have a few good years in me! This is making me consider other options like BLT and AKL.

By the way, mods, sorry I keep putting things in the wrong DVC forum!

If I were you and your going to do it I would buy 60 pts at BWV for the standard studios for the food and wine Fest. Then buy pts at a longer resort year that you might want
That's if you like the F&WF But buy both resorts in the same UY

 

[Dean]

Sorry, another newbie question....looking into buying resale and a lot of the ones we are interested in (Beach Club, Boardwalk, etc) have an expiry date of 2042.

Does anyone know, or have a good insight into, what will happen at that point? Are members likely to get the chance to extend (presumably at a cost) as that date approaches or is it best to assume that 2042 is a true end date and that Disney will just absorb the rooms into their own stock?

Thanks.

DVC isn't saying and we really don't know. One thing is there simply isn't enough villas to accommodate all points the last couple of years, that's factual. How they'll deal with it is uncertain but I doubt it'll be done well. Ultimately the last usable time is likely to be a year or so before the RTU expiration. OKW is even more scary because of the mixture of expirations and risk of dues when they try to downsize in some capacity around 2041.

I think the problem with that fiasco was that it was done so far ahead of time. I bet if they tried it in say 2037, a lot of people would buy in. Especially as original owners start leaving their contracts to their children. I know we will be leaving our three contracts to our daughter and she will probably want to extend the contract as 2042 approaches. Interesting topic.

Lots of problems with it. IMO the biggest one to me was the heavy handed nature and the fact they throated a SA which they do not have the legal authority to impose as I read the POS and FL statutes. Not to mention that it was truly over priced, even at $15. At the time I put the ceiling of value at around $8 per point.

 

[tjkraz]

In the case of OKW, I could conceivably see them offering to extend the remaining owners for free to the 2057 date, just so DVD would not be required to pay maintenance fees on these points until they can take control of all points within the resort.

I don't see that happening. Disney will rent the rooms to cash guests at deep discounts before they simply give it away for free.

Or they could market 15-year DVC contracts for bargain basement prices. If people are still renting points for $15-20 each in '42, there will be buyers willing to pay 2-3x that price for 15 years' use of the points.

Or they could look at downsizing the resort to accommodate just owners who have extended.

 

[Dean]

Disney has backed themselves into a corner with the OKW debacle. Now anything they do really has to be commensurate with the OKW option or enough different that most won't be too offended. That's true at OKW and really all other resorts, esp the 2042 ones. I've long though that a sales incentive to extend was the best approach from all angles.

 

[spruce]

I'll be 81, and I'll be thinking how can I keep this ride going to 101. Who knows what they'll do. I loved over the years the though that that CEO may not even be born yet.

 

[Husurdady]

DVC isn't saying. This far out, possibly even the CEO of Disney corp doesn't know.

Rest assured that Disney will do whatever they see as the most efficient route to increased earnings. if a tear down and rebuild, they will go that route.
.

Oh!........... they know what they are going to do....case- in-point;
Shortly after our DVC/Cruise vacation the first part of May, DVC call my house , doing a phone survey of sort........At the last he asked me is their any imput that I would like to ask/add. I then said it would be nice if I could trade in my old DVC resort/points for a new resort/points with a longer expiration date....I told him I would do this in a heart beat. Right than he said there is someone here that I want you to talk to,[ at the DVC office] His name was David, we talk for awhile about this and he said "we here at DVC are talking about the same thing....ironing out all the loop-holes". So.....I have this feeling that DVC will offer the members with old DVC resorts an offer to trade up....at which time DVC will get back all the old resorts, fix them up / rename them and resale them as a brand new DVC resort. TIME-WILL-TELL.

 

[LSchrow]

Just that we are in early stages of thinking about DVC (but once I decide on something I can be pretty decisive!). If it wasn't for the 2042 expiry, one of the Epcot resorts would probably be my clear choice but I will "only" be 68 by then and hopefully have a few good years in me! This is making me consider other options like BLT and AKL.

we prefer having what we truly want & enjoy for less time, over being just "satisfied" for more years (we bought our favorite in 1999, added on 2x elsewhere.....and scramble at 7 months trying to use those "other" points at our favorite every year - years of trying different places led us to find our "happy place").
then again, not everyone has a single resort that manages to take their breath away...every....single...time.... for those, having more years is paramount.
there is no right or wrong here; it is all individual preference. on older resort resales, cost will be close enough to keep the scales rather close, so figure out which tips them for you: finance or emotion.
enjoy your decision

 

[tjkraz]

I then said it would be nice if I could trade in my old DVC resort/points for a new resort/points with a longer expiration date....I told him I would do this in a heart beat. Right than he said there is someone here that I want you to talk to,[ at the DVC office] His name was David, we talk for awhile about this and he said "we here at DVC are talking about the same thing....ironing out all the loop-holes". So.....I have this feeling that DVC will offer the members with old DVC resorts an offer to trade up....at which time DVC will get back all the old resorts, fix them up / rename them and resale them as a brand new DVC resort. TIME-WILL-TELL.

A "trade" is different than an extension. It would involve returning the deed for existing property to DVC while buying a new deed. If such an offer is made, you can be that the financial details will be very much in Disney's favor. They aren't going to do an even trade of BWV points for VGF points--thousands of dollars would still have to change hands.

Over the years, occasionally the question would come up as to whether or not DVC will directly buy-back points from an owner looking to sell. Turns out they would do it for select properties. For example, a Beach Club owner was offered $55 per point from Disney to buy-back those points. Bear in mind, those same BCV points would fetch over $90 each via resale.

Even though the seller wouldn't have to pay commission on a sell back transaction, the prices quoted by DVC were nothing short of highway robbery.

I am quite sure that come 2041/42 DVC will have some offer ready and waiting for owners at BWV, BCV, VWL, Vero and Hilton Head to continue participating. In fact, given the number of OKW contracts DVC will re-acquire on 2/1/42, I wouldn't be surprised if DVC offered to sell the 15 year OKW contracts to owners of the '42 resorts. That will at least keep those owners in the program for another 15 years...likely at a modest price.

But extensions to other properties are an entirely different animal.

To put things in perspective, the OKW extension was first offered in the fall of 2007. Every so often, a poster will claim their Guide told them "oh, we know people want to extend at other resorts. Stay tuned!"

Seven years later...