What happens in 2042?

[CastAStone]

This all certainly adds to the “buy direct” value equation; I’ve been having a hard time justifying the additional cost when I can practically cut my initial investment cost of by half by buying resale

It’s unjustifiable.

You have no way of predicting your vacation habits in 2042. In 17 years if your Polynesian or CCV or whatever resale contract isn't making you happy, sell it any buy something that does. In the mean time save yourself some money.

 

[Cfabar1]

Ditto. RIVs point charts are some of the most expensive right now but come 2042 they'll be looking pretty friendly. Nothing says I can't use my RIV points in studios (if available, I know, BIG if) and 1BRs at BC/BW and take advantage of the point charts until 2042 and still have the points for another 28 years.

Everyone says this, but I am not entirely convinced of that....

It seems to me that DVC has decided that VGF and Poly are the "high mark" in points. It makes sense, they are the two "flagship" resorts.

So, it seems to me, there is a limit as to how high BW and BC can be. Now, a big question is how the trust factors into this - if you aren't buying specific ownership and just access to a certain amount of points, that could change the equation - but I think the result will be buy at a home resort you want to.

I personally would not buy direct for the guarantee of future resorts... Who knows what that will mean in the future.

 

[Sandisw]

Everyone says this, but I am not entirely convinced of that....

It seems to me that DVC has decided that VGF and Poly are the "high mark" in points. It makes sense, they are the two "flagship" resorts.

So, it seems to me, there is a limit as to how high BW and BC can be. Now, a big question is how the trust factors into this - if you aren't buying specific ownership and just access to a certain amount of points, that could change the equation - but I think the result will be buy at a home resort you want to.

I personally would not buy direct for the guarantee of future resorts... Who knows what that will mean in the future.

The charts though are formed based on the current cash rate at the time.

So, I think we could see those 2042 resorts come back higher than what VGF and PVB are today.

 

[Chili327]

The charts though are formed based on the current cash rate at the time.

So, I think we could see those 2042 resorts come back higher than what VGF and PVB are today.

They definitely could!! And it would make sense, imagine what rack rate will be in 16-20 years.
How much has a hotel room at Boardwalk gone up since 2004?

 

[Sandisw]

They definitely could!! And it would make sense, imagine what rack rate will be in 16-20 years.
How much has a hotel room at Boardwalk gone up since 2004?

I think before discounts it was around $200?

 

[AstroBlasters]

Unless they tear them down, which I think is very reasonable to expect.

As long as they are DVC then I would venture direct and grandfathered points would still work just like they do for other new DVC resorts.

 

[matt and beth]

That’s exactly what we bought into RIV - to give ourselves an “affordable” Epcot-area resort post 2042.

We have a lot of BC points.

Almost, and almost agree with RIV being Epcot resort, but you’re dependent on the Skyliner for it to be that. Walk out of International Gateway on NYE and you suddenly have the stark reality RIV isn’t really an Epcot resort. Anymore than a monorail resort is

 

[intamin]

Everyone says this, but I am not entirely convinced of that....

It seems to me that DVC has decided that VGF and Poly are the "high mark" in points. It makes sense, they are the two "flagship" resorts.

So, it seems to me, there is a limit as to how high BW and BC can be. Now, a big question is how the trust factors into this - if you aren't buying specific ownership and just access to a certain amount of points, that could change the equation - but I think the result will be buy at a home resort you want to.

I personally would not buy direct for the guarantee of future resorts... Who knows what that will mean in the future.

I don't think there's any chance that BC and BW don't come back higher than VGF and Poly in 2042 if they do come back. We're talking prime walking distance to 2 theme parks. I don't think it's lost on Disney the demand these resorts have and they know they could charge up the wazoo and people will pay it for the convenience these Crescent Lake resorts offer.

 

[Cfabar1]

I don't think there's any chance that BC and BW don't come back higher than VGF and Poly in 2042 if they do come back. We're talking prime walking distance to 2 theme parks. I don't think it's lost on Disney that they know they could charge up the wazoo and people will pay it for the convenience these Crescent Lake resorts offer.

I fully realize I am in the minority on this compared to others but I tend to feel a few things about this that will serve as a "check" on this:

1. Magic Kingdom is extremely inconvenient to get to unless staying on Disney property - ideally on the MK monorail line. That is worth a points premium.
2. So much of the "Disney magic" mythos - especially with young kids - is centered around MK. The three monorail resorts occupy a special place and are worth a price/points premium based on that somewhat emotionally, and somewhat practically (when that 4 year old is on the verge of a meltdown, get back to the hotel now!)
3. Disney itself calls the Grand Floridian the "flagship" - now they could teardown Beachclub and build a new flagship, but I'm skeptical.
4. Marriott/Tishman operates massive properties steps away from these resorts, which will, I believe continue to be downward pressure on prices.
5. When I have looked, the monorail cash room rates are more expensive than the crescent room cash rates.

I do think they could choose to say, keep Beach Club & Yacht Club, and demolish Boardwalk and put something more high-end and very unique and luxurious there. I am skeptical the analysis justifies it.

My view has always been they could do nothing to the BC and BW after 2042, and price them at the Riviera or even Poly/VGF points charts and they'd have a hit on their hands. I am not convinced they will demolish or meaningfully renovate anything. Without really knowing, I find it unlikely they would be able to get the ROI.

 

[patm95]

No one really knows what will happen by 2042. It’s anyone’s guess. My guess is that a few years prior to 2042 Disney will announce their plans and give decent incentives for current DVC owners to stay DVC.

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

Almost, and almost agree with RIV being Epcot resort, but you’re dependent on the Skyliner for it to be that. Walk out of International Gateway on NYE and you suddenly have the stark reality RIV isn’t really an Epcot resort. Anymore than a monorail resort is

We’ll end up buying some BC2, but who knows how much it will cost at that point. I agree that it isn’t as convenient as Beach Club, but we like Riviera well enough and I strongly prefer the skyliner to the monorail.

 

[intamin]

I fully realize I am in the minority on this compared to others but I tend to feel a few things about this that will serve as a "check" on this:

1. Magic Kingdom is extremely inconvenient to get to unless staying on Disney property - ideally on the MK monorail line. That is worth a points premium.
2. So much of the "Disney magic" mythos - especially with young kids - is centered around MK. The three monorail resorts occupy a special place and are worth a price/points premium based on that somewhat emotionally, and somewhat practically (when that 4 year old is on the verge of a meltdown, get back to the hotel now!)
3. Disney itself calls the Grand Floridian the "flagship" - now they could teardown Beachclub and build a new flagship, but I'm skeptical.
4. Marriott/Tishman operates massive properties steps away from these resorts, which will, I believe continue to be downward pressure on prices.
5. When I have looked, the monorail cash room rates are more expensive than the crescent room cash rates.

I do think they could choose to say, keep Beach Club & Yacht Club, and demolish Boardwalk and put something more high-end and very unique and luxurious there. I am skeptical the analysis justifies it.

My view has always been they could do nothing to the BC and BW after 2042, and price them at the Riviera or even Poly/VGF points charts and they'd have a hit on their hands. I am not convinced they will demolish or meaningfully renovate anything. Without really knowing, I find it unlikely they would be able to get the ROI.

You're right that these aren't the flagships and if Beach Club and Boardwalk were released at the same time as VGF and Poly there's no doubt that the MK resort point charts would be higher than the Crescent Lake resorts. MK is the most visited theme park in the world. No question. However, we're talking about 18 years from now. I have a hard time believing there isn't enough point chart/cash inflation by that point to push BC and BW past VGFs and Polys charts. VGF and Poly I think will continually set a new high when their new charts come out every 50 years, but I don't think they will always be the highest during the entirety of their 50 year duration of all DVC resorts.

If BC/BW sells with RIVs point charts in 2042, those things will sell like hot cakes unless the price per point is insane.

 

[CastAStone]

I do think they could choose to say, keep Beach Club & Yacht Club, and demolish Boardwalk and put something more high-end and very unique and luxurious there. I am skeptical the analysis justifies it.

I think it’s a slam dunk. As I’ve noted here before, no one in their right mind in 2025 would lay out a property in that manner, nor exclude indoor dining spaces, nor leave that much physical dead space on such valuable real estate. The monorail resorts are far more efficiently designed, especially CR/BLT. I’d expect something closer to that come 2045ish.

 

[CastAStone]

The charts though are formed based on the current cash rate at the time

Yes, the current cash rates *relative to the other resorts*.

That’s why BRV and CCV are the same - it’s not that the cash rates for WL didn’t change in 15 years, it’s that the property went from one of the least expensive deluxes to…the least expensive (non-DVC exclusive) deluxe. So it gets the point chart to match.

Which is to say that as long as BW and BCs cash rates in 2043 are lower that GF and Poly, the point charts will be too.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think it’s a slam dunk. As I’ve noted here before, no one in their right mind in 2025 would lay out a property in that manner, nor exclude indoor dining spaces, nor leave that much physical dead space on such valuable real estate. The monorail resorts are far more efficiently designed, especially CR/BLT. I’d expect something closer to that come 2045ish.

I really hope this is during a “creative” era for Disney and not a “bean counter” era for Disney.

 

[Chili327]

I really hope this is during a “creative” era for Disney and not a “bean counter” era for Disney.

Agree!!

Mainly the focus is “the boardwalk” which is why there is no indoor dining, they want people to use the boardwalk.
It would be like BLT pool facing MK instead of the lake, so the open end faces MK, the focus is what makes a place what it is. Otherwise they would all be like the Disneyland Hotel just rooms efficiently stacked with no real views in mind.

 

[matt_in_nh]

Does OKW stay available til 2057 for resale owners of resorts that started pre restrictions?

 

[eticketplease]

Does OKW stay available til 2057 for resale owners of resorts that started pre restrictions?

Yes that is why IMO SSR is the best resale resort for SAP as you would still have access to SSR, OKW, AKL, BLT, AUL, VGF, PVB and CCV even after 2042.

You can really get great value using the SSR points at AKL which has a better point chart when looking at standard rooms and you can 7 month there for the life of the SSR contract.

 

[eticketplease]

My thinking was you could get a 150pt price, but split it between two resorts on "fire" sale.
I mean it would count towards blue card right?

I love your idea but it would not work at least for the way DVC does business right now.

You could certainly purchase the 2 75 pointers and qualify for blue card as long as 150 is still the minimum at that time.

However for the fire sale to get the best deal you would have to purchase what qualifies for incentives. Incentives are different per resort. I don’t think I have seen incentives on a 75 point contract. Sometimes they don’t even offer them on 100 point contracts. The sweet spot seems to be in 200-300 point range.

So you possibly do 3 75 pointers for 225 points but it would have to be at one resort.

https://dvcexplorer.com/fin/m/Polynesian_Member_DeveloperCredit.pdf

 

[bookbabe626]

It’s unjustifiable.

You have no way of predicting your vacation habits in 2042. In 17 years if your Polynesian or CCV or whatever resale contract isn't making you happy, sell it any buy something that does. In the mean time save yourself some money.

LOL. In 2042 DH and I will be in our 70’s, and we don’t have kids. He intentionally requested our resale contracts be 2042 resorts, so they would just evaporate when we were “done” with them and he wouldn’t have to deal with it. We’ve got a direct VGF to cover some yearly trips after 2042, and his plan is to go back to cash stays for the rest if needed. Who knows what our travel preferences will be like by then, so saving a ton in the short term by buying the shorter resales seemed to him like a better plan.