what happens in 2042

[sunking]

guys...
just wondering...dvc is supposed to end in 2042...hope i'm still around to deal with it but what do you all think will happen with dvc then...when will they stop selling since no one in the right mind would buy in towards 2042...
just wondering...
sunking

 

[Granny]

There has been a lot of speculation on what happens in 2042. Will Disney just create a new 50 year program and "resell" memberships (with 40-50 year old resorts)? Will they turn into cash ressie locations only?

I'm sure Disney has a master plan for this, but they probably don't need to formalize it for at least 10 years. With most of us figuring a 5-10 year "pay back" break even timetable, DVC will remain viable even as a 30 year proposition.

Another related question regards the new resorts that are built after BCV. Will they start a DVC II with a different ending date?

These topics have been debated here before and no one really knows the answer. But it's fun guessing!

 

[KNWVIKING]

They'll installed alot more handicap ramps. Up the wheelchair inventory about 10 fold. Have early bird specials at Olivia's. Bingo at the community center.

 

[EROS]

2042?????!!!!!!????

I just hope that I'll remember the way from Boardwalk to Epcot by then

 

[wdwnut]

too bad we can't get into any of the old posts. we had quite a thread going on "geriatric dvc" a year or so ago. requests for all the rooms to be near the elevators, regular vs. motorized wheelchair races, senior discounts, etc. we'll be well into our 80's and 90's at that time- dvc, what dvc? i can just hear us now.

 

[Werner Weiss]

It's quite possible that the executive who will ultimately make the decision of what will happen to the current DVC resorts in 2042 hasn't even been born yet.

 

[Granny]

Originally posted by Werner Weiss
It's quite possible that the executive who will ultimately make the decision of what will happen to the current DVC resorts in 2042 hasn't even been born yet.

I know your post is somewhat whimsical, but I have a hard time believing that Disney doesn't have a few scenarios on what to do with the DVC homes already in the hopper.

I think that'll be my kids problem anyway.

 

[dianeschlicht]

LOL, Werner! That was a good one!

 

[firemankenpfd]

My wife and I will be in our mid-70's so let's just enjoy it while we are young and let the future just happen....We are looking forward to enjoying Disney with our kids and our grandkids down the line....

 

[lrodk]

I just returned from a 2 week trip to WDW(stayed at the Dolphin). I'm a DVC member at BWVs and have several contacts within the DVC sales dept. I have news directly related to the 2042 expiration date. While not official, and I cannot name the source for purposes of anonymity, I've been told from a very reliable source that Disney is in the process of considering a very attractive DVC Renewal program, which in affect would extend the contracts of current members beyond the 2042 expiration date. The fees would be modest and would allow members to pass along rights and usage of their vacation ownership to family members past the 2042 date.

My source went on to add that more and more guests are opting for "home-away-from-home" type accomodations vs traditional hotel room accomodations, something that I appreciated on this trip after having stayed at BWVs for the first time this past May. Once you stay at a 1 or 2br suite with children in tow there's just no turning back. Food alone is outrageously expensive if you rely on dining at the parks/resorts every night. I really missed our DVC room during this stay. Anyway, demand is spreading like wildfire for DVC, which is the reason they're working on the renewal program. At some point, if the new program is in fact launched, new members will receive a new expiration date beyond the 2042 calendar year once the legal isuues of current contracts, and how they would relate to the proposed renewal contracts, are worked out. DVC is currently the best business model for Disney right now at WDW, consistently showing positive interest during a time when other on-property resorts are struggling. DVC is here to stay, and it seems that current members will have a wonderful option that will allow them to extend their usage should they decide to take advantage of it. I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm very excited about this.

 

[Dean]

If they have newer resorts with a later expiration (Eagle Pines if it really happens), it would make sense to extend the entire group of resorts and it would make things much more simple for Disney. I have heard this rumor as well.

 

[PamOKW]

Along the lines of DVC moving into geriatric territory....I found it interesting that the latest VM talked about the 15 new wheelchairs OKW has purchased. I know they are important but it struck me as funny that maybe there is "increased demand" as we hit the 10 year mark.

 

[mikek]

i Never understand this talk of a later date or DVC II. Why would they give anyone more as long as they can sell it the way it is without any problems?

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by mikek
i Never understand this talk of a later date or DVC II. Why would they give anyone more as long as they can sell it the way it is without any problems?

Part of the problem is that it is unlikely they will actually be able to sell Eagle Pines "the way it is" with an expiration of 2042. Since it's such a large resort, will start selling in 2004 AT THE EARLIEST and will likely take some 10 years to sell out; it is unlikely to have an ending date of 2042. If it did, there would only be some 38 years remaining at the start and 28 at the end. IMO, they must extend it at least to 2050 and it's likely they would extend it to 50 years from initial sales, hopefully 2054.

I'm sure they wouldn't give it away, what they'd likely do is offer to extend the time for a fee. Something like an extra $15-20 per point to extend for the extra length of time. Remember that we would be buying only some additional 10 years or so in 40-50 year old resorts with high maint fees.

 

[mikek]

I hear ya Dean, but i dont see the problem untill at least eagle pines and maybe even after. If i remember correctly there was a camp whjo though wilderness lodge would need a later date, and quite a few times it's come up that BCV 'must' be the start of DVCII. Didnt think about eagle pines taking so long till you pointed it out, so i'll have to mull that one over.

Everyone calculates the payback at 10 or 15 years. I think they could easily sell it still with a 20-30 year time frame, your payback is still half the life of the thing. We (those who own already or buy soon) got a GREAT DEAL, why wont people buy it when its just a good deal? They arent going to discount a thing by lowering the price (or giving longer duration for the same cost) until people stop buyiing the way it is now. I think the resale market backs me up- the trend is up and up and up if you take out the current economic mess- if it still wasnt a great deal the prices would at least stay stagnant.

At some point I wholeheartedly agree they will need to stop jacking the price every year. I never bothered to work it out on a spread sheet, but i think its very late in the game before they need to actually reduce the cost or lengthen the contract. Once they stop jacking the cost, inflation devalues the cost every year for them.

Who says they even need to decide when they start selling eagle pines. If people stop buying, stop declaring inventory into DVC and only then start DVCII- no?

 

[Caskbill]

One thought about a DVC II, say Eagle Pines with a new 50 year term, Disney could easily find themselves in competition with the current DVC.

Let's say Eagle Pines is trying to sell in 2010, after being open for about 5 years. They would then be offering 45 years, at (just for an example), $100/point. Also, by then, many current owners may start thinking about selling their DVC memberships, since they'll be down to 32 years left. This just might be about where the prices begin to drop, or at least level off, as we start toward the downhill side of the original 50 year contract. In this case, let's say that resales start to go down in price. Just for example, say at that time they'd be $70/point.

Now, if you're a brand new buyer, which is more attractive to you? 45 years at $100, or 32 years at $70?

Numbers are for illustration, but I think the point is clear.

 

[Dean]

A few points I've made before. First, no real need for a DVC II. There's nothing in the setup that would preclude having a new resort in the system with a different expiration date. There's even a provision for extending any of the resorts and they could extend one resort without extending others if they wanted.

As for price competition, that is going on now and DVC is doing OK. Don't forget, they have ultimate control. As long as they excercise their ROFR, the prices will remain fairly close to retail. I think DVC could hold their own in sales at the prices Casbill quoted. The price difference now is $75 vs around $60 with all ending dates the same and DVC doesn't seem to be suffering.

Also remember that Eagle Pines will be directed far more at new sales than add ons which is somewhat different that WL and BC, slower economy, higher prices and likely more points per unit will all factor in. As for the value of DVC in terms of getting our money's worth, it varies with each family. From my standpoint, I'm not sure DVC has saved me any money, it's simply allowed me to have better options at around the same price.

I think BC can sell with an expiration of 2042 but think it's possible that they will have a later one if they are going to go that route anyway with Eagles Pines, they may want to get the benefits now. In the Timeshare world, less than 30 years seems to be the time when prices start to suffer. I just don't see DVD taking the the chance that they'll have a resort with less than 30 years that they'll have trouble selling. Remember this is still for the money and Eagle Pines is actually larger than OKW in terms of number of rooms and likely far larger in total points costs to fill the resort. I know I personally wouldn't have bought as my first DVC purchase at Eagle Pines with less than 30 years for around $100 and 350 or more points for a 2 BR and I suspect most people new to the concept wouldn't either and that's the people that will need to buy most of the points to sell such a large resort. There are only so many sales you can get from present owners. Obviously it partly depends on what gimmick they come up with and they will need a gimmick. Something along the lines of the free passes but it will be something else.

 

[CaptainMidnight]

[QUOTE/]They'll installed alot more handicap ramps. Up the wheelchair inventory about 10 fold. Have early bird specials at Olivia's. Bingo at the community center.[/QUOTE]

Very good, got a good chuckle from this one.....

 

[gmboy95]

There are only three questions i can think of that are relevant in 2042

1) will my kids take me out of the "home" long enough for me to travel to disney world?

2) Is sipping oatmeal through a straw a pleasurable experience?

3) Will my social security check cover the cost of admission to disneyquest?

Please keep in mind people....it is my stated goal to make sure when I croak, my kids will find a $0 balance in all of my accounts....I look forward to sending them to a reasonably priced college and then immediately turning their room into a TV den, complete with sattelite TV....then I will sell my house after they graduate, and spend all of that money foolishly at Disney.....and yes I will tack my wrinkled behind to disney in 2042 to make sure i have maximized all of my assets!!!!!......So as to the question "what happens in 2042"....WHO CARES!!!!....its my kids problem..hahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!

 

[CaptainMidnight]

Great news, lrodk. Thank you for sharing. I would probably extend my ownership in order to pass along some extra time to my children for them to continue the magic with thier kids. They can remember dear old Dad shooting it out with them on Buzz Lightyear or holding them as we shoot down the water rapids and have some wonderful experience with thier children and maybe grand children.....