What Happens in 2042 and 2057?

[ScottJayhawk]

Do we know what happens when all these leases of all these DVC properties are all up? And all up at the same time?

If it's not know for sure does anybody have any theories on what might happen - chances to extend? Disney resells again starting in those years for new contracts to a new generation of owners?

Just something to think about and comment on.....

Thanks

 

[SSR]

I'm inclined to think they would offer extensions. For example, in our case, if we're still in SSR in 2054 when it expires, I anticipate my son to be in his 40's and enjoying the points with his family. If that's the case, I think it would be a no-brainer for Disney to implement a "right-to-extend" or "right-to-purchase" with current owners. It'd be easy sales for Disney.

But, then again, who knows what the remaining useful life of the resort(s) will be, and/or whether Disney might need the real estate for something else besides a resort(s).

Tough to predict either way.

 

[chalee94]

1) DVC might decide to offer extensions (especially at standalone resorts like OKW and SSR).

OKW owners were offered a chance to extend from 2042 to 2057 for $15 per pt (or $25 per pt if you waited). most of us decided that was a lot to pay for pts you wouldn't be able to use for 35 years. and IMO, there were a few legal hiccups along the way that might hinder DVC from offering other extensions...

2) DVC could do some renovations on the structures and rent them like hotels - unlikely but possible. ownership reverts completely to disney at 2042 if they don't offer extensions.

3) DVC could just sell 30 to 50 year contracts for those structures after the initial owners' contracts expire.

 

[drusba]

They will come in the middle of the night at the end of January 2042,and bulldoze all the buildings at BWV, BCV, VWL, HH and VB. They will then say they got that idea from the soon to be former Mayor Richard Daley and his handling of Meigs Field.

My best guess is that DVD will eventually offer extensions but not soon since it learned its lesson with OKW that now isn't the right time for an extension to succeed.

 

[Dean]

Technically the appropriate resorts drop out of DVC and return to DVD's control. They may or may not offer extensions and if they do, it might be conditional (? add on) or over priced (OKW). The real question is HOW will they end when they do end. Given the UY setup there is not enough points to cover everyone to use what they have those last couple of years. They will have to prorate in some way or another and there are several ways they could approach it, my guess is they will prorate everyone to a % of the last 2 UY with appropriate dues for those points. They could offer the points optionally and no fees for those that opt out the last year or 2, they could have a lottery, etc.

 

[sweetdana]

I bet the re-do or a sell a new 50 point contract for BCV and points are close to double what they are now. Then sell them at 200 $ a point. (Okay, market rate what ever that may be in 2040 ish. ) They could have a pre-and after point chart and after a contract uses up all borrowed points from 2042, then sell it.. Maybe even offer and unreasonable incentive to current owners.

I also bet BWV to be much higher, but not as high as BC.

Due to they will have previous knowledge of it being a fav resort, they will price them way more than allowing a standard BWV room to be less points than an SSR room. .. That will come into play.

OKW, SSR I bet get extened like OKW did before.
And WL gets additon before an extention. .. and since we are making up rumors here.. I bet Poly gets exteneded too, as it will be added by 2042.

 

[Halle]

I think they'll bulldoze OKW.

 

[paults]

I'll be 92 or is it 93,94 I don't remember and I guess I won't care if I'm gone.

I just hope WALT (Disney) finished the new park (up there) by then and they have free fast passes forever

 

[Deb & Bill]

I think they'll bulldoze OKW.

Nope, there are a lot of members who own until 2057.

But I really won't care in 2042 because I either be dead or no longer an owner if I am still alive.

 

[Dean]

Nope, there are a lot of members who own until 2057.

But I really won't care in 2042 because I either be dead or no longer an owner if I am still alive.

I wonder what the actual percentage of owners at OKW are that own until 2057. My guess is it's relatively few. On one hand they could level a significant portion of the resort and still accommodate those that own. On the other hand, those owners actually own a UDI of specific buildings which could present a dilemma for management at that time. I doubt they'll resell it because I don't think they could successfully through a retail venue. They could try to lay it off on existing members and to get the none extended owners to extend, most likely for free or a small fee to cover closing near the end.

 

[Chuck S]

After nearly 50 years, (65 in the case of OKW) the way technology is changing, the resorts may need extensive renovation to be comparable to any other hotel at that time. Who would pay for that renovation? My guess is they'll fully renovate, or rebuild as necessary, then sell new contracts, rather than offer extensions to existing owners. They may offer expired owners a discount on those contracts.

I agree with Dean, the real question is how they will phase out the resorts with the staggered use years in the system. Perhaps DVD will assume the maintenance for 2042, and allow owners to use their final year of points before shutting down the resorts for rehab.

 

[palaemon]

After nearly 50 years, (65 in the case of OKW) the way technology is changing, the resorts may need extensive renovation to be comparable to any other hotel at that time. Who would pay for that renovation? My guess is they'll fully renovate, or rebuild as necessary, then sell new contracts, rather than offer extensions to existing owners.

Who will pay for the renovations? I think the members are paying and will continue to pay. The basic structure for a hotel hasn't changed in like 100 years, and technology (for the most part) can be retrofitted.

My point is that if they continue to renovate, like what they're doing to OKW, then the resort/resort grounds could still look like new in 2057.

 

[went503]

What about the people who buy in like 2030. It would suck to own for so little time. I would think the break even point would change dramatically.

 

[Chuck S]

Who will pay for the renovations? I think the members are paying and will continue to pay. The basic structure for a hotel hasn't changed in like 100 years, and technology (for the most part) can be retrofitted.

My point is that if they continue to renovate, like what they're doing to OKW, then the resort/resort grounds could still look like new in 2057.

Every building reaches the end of its useful life, no matter how good the upkeep has been during that time. There are only so many retrofits worth doing before it is more cost effective to rebuild the structure than to retrofit. Especially if they can pay for a new building almost immediately by selling new point contracts.

If you think basic structure for a hotel hasn't changed in 100 years, you haven't been to the same hotels I've been to. Yes, a room still looks like a room, but building materials used are no longer brick and wood, who knows what types of materials there will be in 40 or 50 years?

Remember, the Contemporary tower has settled so much over the years that the original plans of removing the rooms, renovating them, and sliding them back into place, is no longer possible. And it is less than 40 years old.

 

[Husurdady]

Do we know what happens when all these leases of all these DVC properties are all up? And all up at the same time?

If it's not know for sure does anybody have any theories on what might happen - chances to extend? Disney resells again starting in those years for new contracts to a new generation of owners?

Just something to think about and comment on.....

Thanks

I know what I am going to do in Jan 2042, call [in my casket with my cell phone]to OKW and make reservation for an elevator building . .............they say the weather is nice there in JAN..................Don't you just a NUT.

 

[SSR]

What about the people who buy in like 2030. It would suck to own for so little time. I would think the break even point would change dramatically.

Won't the price per point be significantly lower in 2030 than it is now to reflect the fewer number of years remaining?

 

[chalee94]

Remember, the Contemporary tower has settled so much over the years that the original plans of removing the rooms, renovating them, and sliding them back into place, is no longer possible. And it is less than 40 years old.

http://www.yesterland.com/contemporary.html

Won't the price per point be significantly lower in 2030 than it is now to reflect the fewer number of years remaining?

i would guess so, but it depends on inflation and demand.

i believe DVC has dropped the direct price of OKW and SSR lately, so it's not impossible that they will sell the older resorts for less...but inflation might also be a factor pushing prices up.

 

[Anthony1971]

From what I heard from a boat driver on my last trip they will force all 2057 owners of OKW in 2040 to agree to have ownership in a specific number of buildings near the HH. The rest will be knocked down in Feb 2044 and a model site for OKW memorial gardens will be built. The expect sales to start shortly after the forcing I mean signing of the consolidation contracts on 2040.
I personally will hold out for the same with SSR as I should make it that far and recover some of what I have paid into SS if that still exists...

Truth be told I will be almost 83 when mine expires... My kid can fend for himself.. but hopefully by the time I am 70 he will be supporting me and taking me to DVC at the newly built POLY phase 3

 

[Dean]

Won't the price per point be significantly lower in 2030 than it is now to reflect the fewer number of years remaining?

As Chuck says, it depends. We have no way of knowing and there are variables including whether we're talking retail or resale, specifics on any extensions at the time, other variables within the club, etc. Things are different now than they were 10 years ago and 3 years ago. Common sense would suggest that the prices and valu7e will ROUGHLY match the remaining useful life modulated by dues, perception of the system and the value of alternate options like regular hotel rooms or direct rental prices for DVC. Historically it seems that RTU properties have devalued more quickly as the end gets closer, sometimes overaly so. They really have to do something to deal with the minority extension contracts in such a large resort. Maybe they could condense owners deeds to a few buildings and do whatever with the rest. Plus they'll have such a system and infrastructure by then (already do) that condensing down to a smaller admin system when that time comes may be problematic. It should be interesting.

 

[Chuck S]

http://www.yesterland.com/contemporary.html

Perhaps, perhaps not, the article really doesn't state that it was never planned or considered. But it does also state that the rooms settled. Structures do have a practical useful life.