What are your percentage odds that Avatarland actually happens?

[tentaguasu]

Disney keeps saying that Avatarland is happening and I keep hearing that things are moving, work is starting, etc.

Yet it feels like no one here really believes it will happen. It's almost like everyone is just waiting for the word that they're backing out.

Is that based on:

1. Past experience on Disney announcing and then bailing out?

2. On continued disbelief that this is a good idea (and that Disney will figure this out)?

3. Your own personal lack of enthusiasm for the project?

When will we hear details? When can we feel confident that it will actually happen?

And most importantly, at the end of the day, as we stand here now, what are your percentage odds that we, in fact, will see Avatarland built to completion roughly as currently envisioned?

 

[magicbob]

Disney keeps saying that Avatarland is happening and I keep hearing that things are moving, work is starting, etc.

Yet it feels like no one here really believes it will happen. It's almost like everyone is just waiting for the word that they're backing out.

Is that based on:

1. Past experience on Disney announcing and then bailing out?

2. On continued disbelief that this is a good idea (and that Disney will figure this out)?

3. Your own personal lack of enthusiasm for the project?

When will we hear details? When can we feel confident that it will actually happen?

And most importantly, at the end of the day, as we stand here now, what are your percentage odds that we, in fact, will see Avatarland built to completion roughly as currently envisioned?

I think they've already back-pedaled some from the concept of a full "Avatarland." We're now hearing (rumors) that they are going to have one ride, a gift shop, and maybe a QS restaurant.

Much of the speculation (my own included) is based on #2 and #3 above. Many are hoping they back out.

 

[RunnerMomO]

Anyone remember the America themed park that was announced in Virginia back in the early 1990's and then got lots of folks not happy (as well as many like me happy). They scrapped it in the end..a little different, but not unheard of to announce and then not follow through.

 

[twebber55]

Well insiders on magic have said millions have already been spent and that the budget still looks like 400 million or so. We can speculate all we want after all thats what this board is for but most post here are based on personal bias not towards actual facts. I think august should tell us a lot. They wouldnt move FOtlk for nothing though

 

[tjkraz]

95% sure it happens. And the only reason it wouldn't (IMO) is if Cameron essentially scuttles the project.

Disney has had plenty of time--literally years--to rethink the decision and they keep reinforcing the idea that it's coming. They want to be in business with Cameron.

At the end of the day, if the attraction(s) are good, the theme is secondary. The Disney parks could use a little jolt of something other than Disney characters from time-to-time.

 

[skier_pete]

I would say it is probably happening. The fact that they put up the walls in Africa to build a new theater for FotLK tells me it's moving forward. I have not seen or heard a single reliable account of it NOT happening. I am expecting to see basic concept stuff coming out of D23 in August and probably construction to start in earnest come October. Unless it gets totally buried at D23 - then that means it won't be happening. I think you will know with 100% certainty either way come August.

My percentage odds would be 90 % that it will happen.

Most of negativity around it are naysayers upset that Disney isn't giving them what THEY wanted - therefore clearly Disney's changed their minds and aren't doing it. That and that Disney sometimes DOES announce things it doesn't do. (Hyperion Wharf anyone?)

 

[Reddog1134]

That and that Disney sometimes DOES announce things it doesn't do. (Hyperion Wharf anyone?)

Have you noticed that Disney doesn't "cancel" projects? The most you'll get out of them is "We are reassessing our plans." Which is either followed by new plans or no mention of the project ever again.

 

[ChrisnKim913]

98.5% chance. A new FotLK building is being built. The Adventurer's Outpost has opened for character meet and greets. That gets rid of everything in Camp Micky Minnie. Now they can start construction. I really think once FotLK moves to the new building, construction will quickly begin.

 

[KYMickey]

AvatarLand may be a very neat concept but in reality the Avatar franchise hasn't shown that it's got the longevity required for that kind of investment. Even the Cars franchise would be pushing demonstration of longevity. The only new concept being discussed for a new Land that has proven longevity is Star Wars. That combined with the fact there are multiple new movies planned for Star Wars that probably will be the next major investment. You may see an individual ride for either or both of the others but I really don't think you will see an entire Land based on either of them.

 

[disney is my life]

I would say mostly #2 and#3. I dont understand why disney would do it. Avatar is old news. I could understand star wars going in hs much more than avatarland in ak.

 

[twebber55]

haha here we go again.......this stuff never gets old i guess

 

[LockShockBarrel]

I say it's 50 50. I don't disagree that AK could use something, especially a new ride but for them to say the fantasy creature idea they originally had was stupid but to go to Avatarland instead is just silly. Those traditional fantasy creatures are age old stories and myths that everyone knows and grew up with. Avatar, not so much.

 

[beer dave]

haha here we go again.......this stuff never gets old i guess

Right... go on any thread with Avatar in the name and all you get is " I think it is stupid" Please start a thread entitled "I think Avatar is stupid" and you can all complain there.

As for percentage, I would say it is pretty high.

But then again, 63% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

 

[twebber55]

Right... go on any thread with Avatar in the name and all you get is " I think it is stupid" Please start a thread entitled "I think Avatar is stupid" and you can all complain there.

As for percentage, I would say it is pretty high.

But then again, 63% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

I would say the best thing we could do is wait until d23 to hear whats in store for avatar as well as dhs

 

[skier_pete]

AvatarLand may be a very neat concept but in reality the Avatar franchise hasn't shown that it's got the longevity required for that kind of investment. Even the Cars franchise would be pushing demonstration of longevity.

Since you started it, I'll point out that its a good thing Song of the South is still so popular, else no-one would be riding Splash Mountain.

Point being: Franchise popularity does not equal quality theme park experience. Radiator Springs racers will still be a great ride long after Cars is gone. (And honestly I don't think Cars is going anywhere - anything that you can appeal to 2-8 year olds as easily as that (TALKING CARS!) should be easy to keep around if they want to.)

I do agree Avatar will be completely forgotten in 10 years - so they better make the theme park experience worth doing in itself.

 

[10_Kyle_10]

At least 80% sure it will come to be in the future.

Avatar 2 is not set to be released until 2015, opening it before then would not make sense to me.

 

[Reddog1134]

Point being: Franchise popularity does not equal quality theme park experience.

Here is an excellent example: the Waterworld live action show at Universal Hollywood. The movie was a critical and financial flop. However, not only is the show still going strong in Hollywood after 18 years, they opened a new version in Singapore in 2010.

 

[Zooshoveller]

We took the DVC tour a couple of weeks ago, and our van driver talked about Avatar. He said it may be a whole land or just one ride. He made it sound like there is definitely something coming but plans are still not finalized. Everything else he said was spot on.

Meh. I'll wait for official announcements.

 

[dwheaton]

It's definitely true that you can make a great attraction from a bad franchise. However, Disney is clearly looking to find some way to offer an alternative to Harry Potter. The fact that they're moving so slowly likely indicates they may be doing it but aren't in a hurry.

I give it a 50/50 chance of being there. It seems weird that we're hearing nothing about it, so that makes me wonder if it will ever see the light of day. Adding that to likely plans for Star Wars attractions (a no brainer) at DHS makes me think they may just push it under the rug.

The other possibility is they're doing the planning but will wait to see how Avatar 2 does before committing. They've been very cautious with new attractions lately.

 

[twebber55]

Who says it s a bad franchise?