"What am I even doing with my life?" Comments Welcome!

StacyStrong

DIS Veteran
Joined
May 8, 2018
Depends on what the goal for the race is.
I would be happy to be around 13:45 average for the whole run, but would SECRETLY (not so secret) like to be closer to 13:30. I haven't run a race over a 10k yet. I also haven't run a 10k faster than 14:01 during a race, so we will see what actually happens....
 

DopeyBadger

Imagathoner
Joined
Oct 15, 2015
I would be happy to be around 13:45 average for the whole run, but would SECRETLY (not so secret) like to be closer to 13:30. I haven't run a race over a 10k yet. I also haven't run a 10k faster than 14:01 during a race, so we will see what actually happens....
I'd say it is plausible. It comes down to the question of a would you rather:

A) 15% chance at 13:25 pace vs 85% chance at 14:20 pace
B) 35% chance at 13:35 pace vs 65% chance at 13:45 pace

Essentially the thought experiment is, how much are you willing to risk the potential of success for the drawback of completely blowing up. Choice "A" is being risky, and choice "B" is being conservative. Neither are the right or wrong choice, simply whatever you want out of the race experience.

According to the training plan we developed, the projected 15k time under ideal conditions would be a 2:04:13 (13:20) based on the MM back in April. According to your T+D adjusted 10k time from June (1:24:07), your 15k projection would be a 2:09:17 (13:52).

So would you rather be an "A" or "B" type riskiness on this race?
 

StacyStrong

DIS Veteran
Joined
May 8, 2018
I’m thinking B because I think I would be really upset if I was at or over 14:20, but would be happy with 13:45 (faster than prior 10k). While 13:25 would be better than 13:35, I would still be really happy with 13:35. The 10 second pace difference isn’t worth the risk, I don’t think. At least not this early on in my running journey!
 
  • DopeyBadger

    Imagathoner
    Joined
    Oct 15, 2015
    I’m thinking B because I think I would be really upset if I was at or over 14:20, but would be happy with 13:45 (faster than prior 10k). While 13:25 would be better than 13:35, I would still be really happy with 13:35. The 10 second pace difference isn’t worth the risk, I don’t think. At least not this early on in my running journey!
    Best I can tell, this is a fairly flat race:

    Screen Shot 2019-10-25 at 11.43.42 AM.png

    So no pace adjustments needed for hills when viewing the race as a per mile split. Maybe Mile 2 at +9 seconds at the most.

    I'd say let's base the pacing off the T+D adjusted 10k from June. So that says a 13:52 min/mile (assuming the T+D stays under 100). So I think you should start around a 13:55-14:05 min/mile. Then as the miles progress after mile 2, start to drop the pace by a few seconds every mile. Something like:

    1-14:00
    2-14:00
    3-13:55
    4-13:55
    5-13:50
    6-13:45
    7-13:40
    8-13:35
    9-13:30

    This way, Miles 1-4 stay above what was calculated in June to be your 15k pace (13:52). If you can truly pick the pace up starting with Mile 5, then do so. If you can't, that's fine and try to hold on to the 13:50-13:55 pace window. Think of it like the M Tempo + HM Tempo you just did, just a touch longer. This would be a pacing strategy for balancing lower risk with moderate reward. This does not mean it will be easy. It's still going to be hard. But you can do this!
     

    StacyStrong

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 8, 2018
    Thanks - this helps and seems feasible. So if I’m at timing mats approximately at the following times, I should be good?

    5k - 42:00
    10k - 1:24:00

    Hopefully I can shave some seconds off at the end as well, but it's good knowing I can conserve early and still aim for under 14:00.

    Now to figure out my run intervals. I might try to do 80/30 throughout and adjust my run pace accordingly for the earlier miles.
    Or do you think I should start 60/30 and transition to 80/30?

    eta- my phone really struggled to type this. Wow
     

    DopeyBadger

    Imagathoner
    Joined
    Oct 15, 2015
    Thanks - this helps and seems feasible. So if I’m at timing mats approximately at the following times, I should be good?

    5k - 42:00
    10k - 1:24:00
    You would be way ahead of pace with both of these splits as these are both 13:30 pace. My math says approximately a 43:27 5k and 1:26:29 10k split would be on pace with above.

    Now to figure out my run intervals. I might try to do 80/30 throughout and adjust my run pace accordingly for the earlier miles.
    Or do you think I should start 60/30 and transition to 80/30?
    If you do roughly the same pace 12:29/18:00 for 60/30 it gets you right around a 14:00 min/mile. So start with 60/30 and then around mile 5 move to 80/30.
     

    StacyStrong

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 8, 2018
    You would be way ahead of pace with both of these splits as these are both 13:30 pace. My math says approximately a 43:27 5k and 1:26:29 10k split would be on pace with above.



    If you do roughly the same pace 12:29/18:00 for 60/30 it gets you right around a 14:00 min/mile. So start with 60/30 and then around mile 5 move to 80/30.
    #badatmath

    thank you so much!!!!
     
  • StacyStrong

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 8, 2018
    I was looking at my estimated v02 max data on my phone. It’s gone up since last year. While I was looking, I noticed that I can see my average heart rate, lowest heart rate, and highest for the past year. My highest clocked in at 198 in January 2019. Since then it’s hit over 195 a couple times.

    snap!!!! that’s high. I think my max HR is higher than I thought. Or I’m dying! Haha
     

    StacyStrong

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 8, 2018
    My goal might need to be changed. It may change to “start the race and finish”.

    I thought I was feeling better, but apparently it was a trick. I’ve had a fever the past day and a half now and my throat is on fire. I’m really annoyed because I was fine when I went in for a physical on Monday.

    I’m hoping this passes quickly, but I’m currently taking a sick day and struggling to stay awake.
     
  • StacyStrong

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 8, 2018
    I cannot catch a break. My throat doesn’t hurt anymore but I’m hacking up a lung so I got no sleep. I’m currently sitting in my car waiting for the expo to open because I still want to try to run tomorrow lol. I guess I’ll see how the day goes. BUT the expo doesn’t open until 10. I thought it was 9 because I can’t read. Ughhhhhhhhhh.
     

    Toolulu22

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 22, 2015
    I cannot catch a break. My throat doesn’t hurt anymore but I’m hacking up a lung so I got no sleep. I’m currently sitting in my car waiting for the expo to open because I still want to try to run tomorrow lol. I guess I’ll see how the day goes. BUT the expo doesn’t open until 10. I thought it was 9 because I can’t read. Ughhhhhhhhhh.
    It would be disappointing to not run after all your hard work (I just saw your thread so haven’t been here the whole time, but understand the journey you’re on). You’re doc advised to run only if you’re feeling ok. Rest up and run the next race if you are not up to this one. You’ve been preparing, but if you’re lungs are no good, if you have a bug- get healthy first. Take care of you. It’s great that you got to here.
     

    StacyStrong

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 8, 2018
    I ran the Hot Chocolate this morning.

    As of last night, I was still on the fence about even starting it. I was having coughing fits so badly that I would choke myself until I vomited. I know, disgusting.

    I decided to run anyway and set my alarm bright and early. I was very thankful for daylight savings.

    I woke up feeling better than I had been, but really nervous about starting and not being able to finish. I told myself I would just break off with the 5k if I really needed to.

    WELL I did not need to. I ran the first 5k with two friends before they broke off from me.

    Mile 1 felt really rough because we started in a tunnel and I was immediately hot even though it was so cold out. However, it got much better once we came back up into open space. I was feeling “okay” but not great once we hit the 5k. I decided to keep going.

    Everything was fine up until mile 7.5. My lungs just did not want to function. I wasn’t coughing the whole race, but all of a sudden it just started. I ended up adding some more walking and didn’t even bother with the uphills. It was too much. I’m STILL coughing now, hours later.

    My average pace ended up being 14:15, which is obviously shy of my goal, but considering how sick I’ve been the last week, I did better than I anticipated.

    A huge shout out to Coach Billy. Although I didn’t reach my goal, I really think that if I was healthy, I would have a great chance at hitting it. Thank you!!! (Now I just need to convince you to help me with a challenge training plan......)

    As an aside, My watch put me at 14:02 pace with 9.45 miles at the following splits:
    449970
     

    DopeyBadger

    Imagathoner
    Joined
    Oct 15, 2015
    I ran the Hot Chocolate this morning.

    As of last night, I was still on the fence about even starting it. I was having coughing fits so badly that I would choke myself until I vomited. I know, disgusting.

    I decided to run anyway and set my alarm bright and early. I was very thankful for daylight savings.

    I woke up feeling better than I had been, but really nervous about starting and not being able to finish. I told myself I would just break off with the 5k if I really needed to.

    WELL I did not need to. I ran the first 5k with two friends before they broke off from me.

    Mile 1 felt really rough because we started in a tunnel and I was immediately hot even though it was so cold out. However, it got much better once we came back up into open space. I was feeling “okay” but not great once we hit the 5k. I decided to keep going.

    Everything was fine up until mile 7.5. My lungs just did not want to function. I wasn’t coughing the whole race, but all of a sudden it just started. I ended up adding some more walking and didn’t even bother with the uphills. It was too much. I’m STILL coughing now, hours later.

    My average pace ended up being 14:15, which is obviously shy of my goal, but considering how sick I’ve been the last week, I did better than I anticipated.

    A huge shout out to Coach Billy. Although I didn’t reach my goal, I really think that if I was healthy, I would have a great chance at hitting it. Thank you!!! (Now I just need to convince you to help me with a challenge training plan......)

    As an aside, My watch put me at 14:02 pace with 9.45 miles at the following splits:
    View attachment 449970
    Congrats on finishing your first 15k under less than ideal conditions!
     

    disneygpa

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Aug 31, 2018
    Way to go! Congrats on finishing this even when you weren't feeling your best! Maybe now you can rest and recoup!!
     

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