Weather service backing down on hurricane season predictions

[schlepsnort]

Our computer has a news ticker that runs across the top of the screen. I just saw that the federal forecaster are changing their predictions for this years Hurricane season. Looks like fewer named storms and fewer actual hurricanes with maybe only 3 having winds of over 100mph.
Not to say that they won't happen, besides these are only predictions, not a crystal ball! But I feel a 'little' better about our chances in Sept. That and WDW clarifying their tropical storm refund/reschedule policy helped!

 

[disneymac]

I hope they're right this time! Is there a smilie with it's fingers crossed? Thanks for this info!

 

[Lizziejane]

Well, I guess they have themselves covered nicely, don't they?! First their predictions were "greater than normal", but it's been relatively quiet, so now they say (surprise!), "not as bad as predicted"! Now, if things pick up, they'll say, "oh, well, if you recall, we did initially predict this..."

I swear, in my next life, I"m coming back as a meteorologist (sp?). Apparently, they get paid a decent salary, and it doesn't really matter if you're right or wrong!!

 

[schlepsnort]

Amen to that, and did you ever notice that the meteorologists on t.v. always have the nicest smiles? I wonder if dental work is thrown in on top of the other benefits...
I wish I could do that when people want me to tell them information, like when my kids ask if they can have dessert:
Well there is a chance of pudding but it's only 40% unless the plate is clean then that increases to 90% but with a strong onslaught of whining the chances of pudding decrease to 10%.
I never truly say yes, and I never truly say no.

 

[EnnEss]

Meteorology is fairly accurate within 2 - 4 days and at school in geography (which is the umbrella meteorology falls under and what you get your degree in) they teach that there is no way a long range forecast is going to be over 50 percent accurate. Its really just educated guessing.

Even with only some university courses in it though, I can simply look at the sky and predict the weather over the next few days fairly well, granted many can do this with experience and without schooling but its a really interesting subject if you appreciate the science behind it. I think a lot of the frustration regarding weather reports comes from the fact that very few understand what it means when they say 10 percent or 40 possibility of percipitation. No ones really to blame for that though, the terms they teach you just don't make obvious sense if you weren't taught them, PoP is just one of many that are like that.

As for hurricane forcasts, isn't that based a lot on miniscule changes in ocean temps? I'm scared of a hurricane happening in September as well, I much prefer the lingering threat of a massive earthquake that we deal with on the west coast.

 

[eeyoreiscool]

I figured they just picked up the newest Farmers Almanac and read to see what the predictions should be for the upcoming days. However it is nice to see their current radar loops to figure out when we will be hit by a thunderstorm, not that it has happened recently though.

 

[schlepsnort]

Yeah we like to watch the radar loop as well. We'll see what looks to be a very promising thunderstorm barrel it's way towards us, get about a fingertip distance from our area...and disappear!
We get all excited (we love thunderstorms and the rain is great for my garden!) and nothing ever happens lately...
Oh well, I just keep hoping for no tropical weather unless it's the kind where you are on the correct side of it and all you get is cooler less humid temperatures...that I am ALL for!