Weather Forecasts and How to Reliable Are They

[belletw77]

I will be going to DW next week Oct 9th thru the 15th and I have been looking at the forecast for that week and they go from looking wonderful to horrible with rain everyday. Has anyone had any experience in looking at forecast that far in advance and if they are reliable or not. I have also seen two different forecast on different sites. One will say rain all day when the other says sunny. Should I hold any trust in what I am seeing. I amy just so worried that the weather won't be that great, especially for MNSSHP that we are going to. What happens if it rains that night? Does the show still go on? Please someone ease the frustration and worrying that I am having on this.

Tina

 

[mrodgers]

Experience in looking at forecast that far in advance? I catch the news in the morning before getting ready for work to check the local weather and an hour later on their website the forecast is completely different. The only reliable weather forecast is when they can look outside and say, yes, it is currently raining.

 

[marlynnp]

Do you check your weather forecasts at home? The ones for Orlando are just as reliable.

 

[Dax]

The rainy season is pretty much over here in Orlando...We may get some spotty showers...but those will be late day, and pass through, if even at all.

Temp wise...we just got our first cold front! Temps today were low 80's with it getting to the low 60's at night...but average temps for this time should be mid 80's with little to no humidity.

Oct is a GREAT time to be in FL!

 

[addicted_to_WDW]

I never pay attention to forecasts more than a couple of days out because they are unreliable.

Rain won't stop anything (other than fireworks/parades if it's really bad and windy and not forecast to let up), so prepare for any possibility but don't let it concern you too much.

 

[belletw77]

Do you check your weather forecasts at home? The ones for Orlando are just as reliable.

I have been checking accuweather.com, timeanddate.com and weather.com. Do you have a better one that I can check? Do you mean like a local Orlando news station? The websites I have been checking are only making me feel misreable about the week I am going. I just want to cry when I see what the forecast is

 

[Dax]

I have been checking accuweather.com, timeanddate.com and weather.com. Do you have a better one that I can check? Do you mean like a local Orlando news station? The websites I have been checking are only making me feel misreable about the week I am going. I just want to cry when I see what the forecast is

Try www.weatherunderground.com

Again...don't worry about the weather...that 10% chance...won't even be for the whole day...2hrs max....and may not even hit WDW

 

[belletw77]

The rainy season is pretty much over here in Orlando...We may get some spotty showers...but those will be late day, and pass through, if even at all.

Temp wise...we just got our first cold front! Temps today were low 80's with it getting to the low 60's at night...but average temps for this time should be mid 80's with little to no humidity.

Oct is a GREAT time to be in FL!

That is good to know So do you think the forecasts that I am looking at should change if you are hopefully done with the rainy season. I know that at one point when looking at the forecast for next week it did have rain all week and now it looks good. So I really hope it changes!! This is my DD6 first trip to DW and I want it to be a good one! I really need to pixie dust so that this week ends up wonderful!!

 

[kwelch10377]

I don't rely on any forecasts that is more than 1-2 days out. You can't change what the weather will be, so you need to stop worrying about it. You may need to be a little flexible at times, but it is really no big deal.

I have been to MNSSHP 3 times and it rained 2 of those times. The fireworks were a little delayed, party went on.

 

[belletw77]

Again...don't worry about the weather...that 10% chance...won't even be for the whole day...2hrs max....and may not even hit WDW[/QUOTE]

Thanks! I notice they only go till the 8th so they must not trust going beyond 7 days. So if it says there is a chance of rain in Orlando that doesn't always mean it will be in WDW? I guess I never thought about that as a possibility.

 

[Dax]

Again...don't worry about the weather...that 10% chance...won't even be for the whole day...2hrs max....and may not even hit WDW

Thanks! I notice they only go till the 8th so they must not trust going beyond 7 days. So if it says there is a chance of rain in Orlando that doesn't always mean it will be in WDW? I guess I never thought about that as a possibility.

That is right...Metro Orlando is a big area....It may be raining cats and dogs at Universal, and sunny and humid at MK...

Have a good time...I am going to Tampa for Howl O Scream on Thursday evening, and there is a 20% chance of rain...but I know it is a very slim chance of actually causing issues. I have never had an Oct event rained out.

 

[kaytieeldr]

Weather predictions are as reliable as they can be given that (a) they are just predictios, and (b) nobody can control the weather.

A 10% chance of rain could mean it'll rain 10% of the day, or over 10% of the property (yes, it can absolutely be raining at Epcot but not MK), or just that there's a 10% chance it'll rain at all .

 

[belletw77]

That is right...Metro Orlando is a big area....It may be raining cats and dogs at Universal, and sunny and humid at MK...

Have a good time...I am going to Tampa for Howl O Scream on Thursday evening, and there is a 20% chance of rain...but I know it is a very slim chance of actually causing issues. I have never had an Oct event rained out.

So is the website you gave the one that you most rely on then when looking at the forecast. I am assuming that it will change a lot the closer to when I am going. I read somewhere that the forecasts are usually only accurate 3 days out and the further you go the less accurate it is. I have tried not looking but I just can't help but keep checking on it. I should just wait till next Sat to even look, but it would be hard!

 

[Coconut36]

I was just looking at weather.com forecast for my state and CA (DL for us in a short time) and I would say fairly inaccurate more than a week out. The ones for my state seemed pretty unlikely so based on that I don't put a ton of faith in what they forecast anywhere else.

 

[Dax]

So is the website you gave the one that you most rely on then when looking at the forecast. I am assuming that it will change a lot the closer to when I am going. I read somewhere that the forecasts are usually only accurate 3 days out and the further you go the less accurate it is. I have tried not looking but I just can't help but keep checking on it. I should just wait till next Sat to even look, but it would be hard!

Yes I use that website almost all of the time..and for the most part, very accurate...Don't stress about the weather...you can't change it no matter what it is...You will have a great time...

 

[ChristmasElf]

I will be going to DW next week Oct 9th thru the 15th and I have been looking at the forecast for that week and they go from looking wonderful to horrible with rain everyday. Has anyone had any experience in looking at forecast that far in advance and if they are reliable or not. I have also seen two different forecast on different sites. One will say rain all day when the other says sunny. Should I hold any trust in what I am seeing. I amy just so worried that the weather won't be that great, especially for MNSSHP that we are going to. What happens if it rains that night? Does the show still go on? Please someone ease the frustration and worrying that I am having on this.

Tina

In Orlando, Channel 6 (WKMG) www.clickorlando.com is pretty accurate. Usuall the weather here is nice in October. Slightly cool in the evenings and gets warm during the day. Bring a pair of slacks, a light sweatshirt and a bunch of shorts and you will be fine.