Weak economy going to affect DW tourism?

[MissyPooh5890]

With so many people losing equity in their homes lately - some people even losing their homes - along with rising gas prices and a slowing economy in general, I've been wondering how this will affect Disney World tourism. Over the last few years, it seems that tourism has picked up but it now seems more likely to me that this may change. Just wondered if anyone else was wondering about this and, if so, how this might affect travel (airfare, resort prices, discounts, etc.) ?

 

[dawgsgirl]

I think we are headed for a recession. I work at a Food Stamp office and we can always tell. Foreign visitors might make up the difference since the dollar is so weak. I'm hoping for lower crowds and bigger discounts!

 

[ElizabethB]

The way things look, there will definitely be a slowdown. But, there is still a group of people making pots of money for whom there will be no change. This group has grown exponentially under the Bush administration. I think WDW recognizes this -- which is why prime times are becoming more expensive than ever (with big rack rate increases, holiday dining surcharges, etc.). I think in the less popular times, when the incredibly wealthy are unlikely to show up, we'll see lots of discounting.

The WDW strategy actually makes sense -- get the rack rates up higher than ever, so they can demand and get really high prices in peak times. Then, offer discounts from the ever spiraling rack rates for slow times (like August/September) when it's too hot and the hedge fund managers and private equity guys have no interest in going to WDW with their families.

 

[ransom]

Good points, ElizabethB!

I, too, think we're heading for a slowdown -- a significant one. It may be delayed for a year through some Herculean efforts, however, as next year is an important election year...

 

[elastigirl]

Great points, Elizabeth B. I believe there is also an increase in international guests, because it's far cheaper to come than in the past.

 

[tone.def]

Great points, Elizabeth B. I believe there is also an increase in international guests, because it's far cheaper to come than in the past.

YOU BET! With our Canadian dollar being worth as much and more, it goes a lot further now. I am going to shop my brains out this weekend and not have to worry about counting my pennies and adding $20 to every hundred I was spending in exchange...

 

[Seahunt]

Yep, add me to the "it will definitely affect tourism" list! I also believe the economy is going to affect just about everything for about the next year, and am scared about just when it will get better?

The local news (Orlando) also reported this about the theme parks (it's been on all the local TV stations lately but this news blurb is from the Orlando Sentinel) and I think this could also affect the parks as people do get scared off when these terms are used:

December 2, 2007
Central Florida's theme parks could be labeled "high-risk" targets under new anti-terrorism regulations designed to tighten oversight of the nation's chemical stockpiles.

At a minimum, Walt Disney World and potentially Universal Orlando and SeaWorld Orlando will have to report more information about the chemicals stored throughout their sprawling resorts to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

The area's theme parks don't have giant stockpiles of the targeted chemicals stored in one central location. But they do have lots of some of them scattered about their properties.

Among them: hydrogen peroxide. The compound is commonly used as a disinfectant, but it can also be combined with acetone to make the explosive triacetone triperoxide, or TATP, which terrorists used in the July 2005 bombings in London that killed more than 50 people and wounded 700.

Representatives for the theme parks say they are still reviewing the new rules, which took effect last month, and say, so far, they are unconcerned.

But during the recent International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions trade show in Orlando, a Universal executive told a Homeland Security official that the company worries a high-risk label could scare away some tourists, much the way bookings temporarily dry up whenever the federal government raises the nation's threat level.

A spokesman for IAAPA, which represents nearly 4,500 businesses involved in the amusement-park industry, said the association is still trying to determine how many attractions might be affected by the new rules.

"We're facilitating conversations between our members and DHS. . . . This is very early in the process," spokesman David Mandt said. He added that IAAPA does not expect the rules to have a "significant impact" on the amusement industry.

More than 300 chemicals on list

The new regulations -- Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards -- identify more than 300 chemicals the government says could be targets for terrorists to attack or steal. They apply to any facility that has more than a minimum amount of at least one of those chemicals -- as little as 400 pounds of TNT, for instance, or 10,000 pounds of ammonia.

A facility that trips one of those thresholds must submit a report detailing its chemical inventory -- dubbed a "top screen" -- to Homeland Security before the end of January. The department will use those reports, along with factors ranging from the type of business to existing security procedures, to determine which facilities it considers high-risk targets.

Big theme parks aren't the only ones potentially affected. In an early estimate, the federal government said as many as 40,000 facilities across the country -- from large chemical plants to pulp mills, poultry farms and universities -- will have to provide details of their chemical stockpiles during the first year of the program.

Homeland Security officials estimate 1,500 to 6,000 facilities will be deemed high-risk sites, which would subject them to stiffer federal oversight. Those facilities "are expected to come from a fairly broad swath of the nation's economy," the department said in a written statement.

Any site that has at least 400 pounds of hydrogen peroxide above a certain concentration must report its holdings to the federal government.Other materials named by regulators -- including ammonia, chlorine and propane -- can be used in a wide variety of operations common around the parks, from sterilizing swimming pools to refrigerating food to exploding fireworks.

Theme parks get prepared

A spokesman for Walt Disney World said the region's largest resort has already begun compiling an inventory of chemicals to submit to federal regulators. Spokesman Jacob DiPietre said the park does not expect to be designated a high-risk site.

"Based on our records and our storage protocols, we don't anticipate any further action from the Department of Homeland Security," DiPietre said.

SeaWorld spokeswoman Becca Bides said the park is in the midst of "reviewing what chemicals [the new set of rules] relates to and how much are being stored on site." She said SeaWorld expects the rules will have a relatively small effect on operations.

"Obviously, safety is our highest priority," she said. "All of our chemicals are safely secured and protected."

Universal spokesman Tom Schroder said Universal is "still reviewing this issue and because of that, it's too early to say more."

When the rules were unveiled in April, they sparked protests from chemical manufacturers, agribusinesses and a host of other industries that complained the regulations were unnecessarily broad and would impose bureaucratic costs on their businesses.

Partly as a result of lobbying by such groups, Homeland Security removed some chemicals it had initially included and raised the minimum quantities for others. But department spokeswoman Amy Kudwa said no accommodations were made specifically for the amusement industry.
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[fla4fun]

I read that article in the paper yesterday. I think that's ridiculous. Obviously, anyplace that has that many hotels and theme parks to take care of is going to have a lot of chemicals on hand to do it. The only way around that would be to get a shipment of them in a few times a day, and you can imagine the headaches that would cause.

I agree with the posters who have said that they believe tourism may be affected. However, people really feel entitled to a vacation, and will do without other things in order to get one. I feel that the budget hotels off property that typically run half the price of a Disney value resort may see a lot more business and you may find more people who might have considered staying deluxe or moderate staying moderate or value instead. So the parks may stay busy, but the resorts not so much. Of course, if that leads to more discounts at the deluxe level, I'd be happy! A lot will depend on the cost of fuel, and how that affects travel expenses. I can't imagine what it must cost for the guests driving the big RV's down to FW every time they have to fill the gas tank!

Since I live close, I'll always get my AP, but whether I can continue to afford to stay on property . . .we'll have to wait and see.

 

[G8r4evr]

I think we are headed for a recession. I work at a Food Stamp office and we can always tell. Foreign visitors might make up the difference since the dollar is so weak. I'm hoping for lower crowds and bigger discounts!

I agree on all counts.

 

[eliza61]

I'm not sure how much it will slow it down. It may cut into their profits a bit because now they may have to discount rooms. I have a few reasons for saying this:
1) Disney has been great at getting people into the parks (can anyone say free dining.) It has been one of the few theme parks that have maintained 90%+ occupancy.
2) Many folks will cut out other luxuries before giving up their vacations. I'm one of those people that refuses to go without one at least every 14-16 months. I'll eat cup o soup morning, noon and night but I need a vacation.
3) face it many, many people will charge their vacation. Not wise but I know tons of folks who do it.
4) Relatively speaking Disney is not as "out of the ball park" as any other vacation. Especially here on the east coast. A week at the shore, Ocean city NJ or Ocean city MD will easily set you back 2K-3K. My motel last July at Rehobeth Beach DE ran me $225/night (1625 for the week) and I wasn't even on the beach! My dh turned to me and said "we could have went to Disney" for a little more.
5) Gas prices have been out of control for the last year but our consumption has gone UP!. We will not live without our cars, whatever they charge we will pay.
6) DVC is still selling strong. Rumor has it that the construction at the CR will be a new dvc property. That means lots of people who plan on returning yearly.
I'm guilty on all the above counts. I'm planning my trip to disney for '08.

 

[ducklite]

The truly wealthy who won't be hit by a recession don't vacation regularly at WDW. They might take one, maybe two trips in a lifetime there.

I don't think the risk of terrorism will deter the international guest, many of whom live in areas that have been targets of terrorism far more often than the US has--the strong exchange rate will overpower any fears.

Just like after September 11th when travel decreased significantly, WDW will offer specials to residents of Florida and Georgia to keep the parks and resorts full.

DVC almost guarantees WDW a captive audience of DVC owners year after year.

Will WDW be affected? Sure. But they've weathered economic and tourism downturns in the past, and will continue to do so.

 

[LilGMom]

I'm sure the economy will affect tourism to WDW, as well as other major vacation spots, and I hope WDW does slow down some. We go during the off peak seasons even though we aren't incredibly wealthy because we don't like the crowds, like the discounts, and prefer the weather of the slow months. The threat of terrorism has always been there and 9/11/01 made it that much more real. We didn't stop going in 2001 and we in fact starting going more as it became our escape from what was/is going on in the "real" world.

WDW charges more during the peak seasons because it can, that is when attendance is up. I live in a beach community and you can't touch a decent beach hotel for under $200 (probably more but I'm not sure since I haven't priced them in a long time) during the summer. The beach hotels charge more during the summer months because that is when they get the crowds. Even the touristy restaurants charge more during tourist season - it is the nature of the beast and President Bush has nothing to do with that.

We may reduce our 2-3 yearly trips down to 1-2 but we will continue to live as we do now, we'll just start doing some things a little smarter.

 

[Mouseaholic!!!]

How long has it been since you have seen a television ad for WDW? All the advertising is now going to Europe and England (the enchange rate for the English pound is so good right now our English guests basically have the same discounts as castmembers at 50%).

They will not miss us....they will have all NEW guests.

 

[BrianD]

You bet Disney is targeting Europe, and not only with advertising, but on more than one occasion when going on their website to check hotel availability, when I saw no availability at my prefered hotel, I went over to their UK site just for the heck of it, and sure enough, availability. Disney is even holding rooms for European guests!

I'm not sure how bad the economic slowdown will be. It probably won't be as bad as post 9/11, so I don't see the cutbacks happening at WDW like there were then. Remember when they even cut out EMH???

 

[ducklite]

How long has it been since you have seen a television ad for WDW? All the advertising is now going to Europe and England (the enchange rate for the English pound is so good right now our English guests basically have the same discounts as castmembers at 50%).

They will not miss us....they will have all NEW guests.

I see them DAILY here in central Florida.

 

[LilGMom]

How long has it been since you have seen a television ad for WDW? All the advertising is now going to Europe and England (the enchange rate for the English pound is so good right now our English guests basically have the same discounts as castmembers at 50%).

I see them daily on the television and see them in magazines all the time in NW Florida.

 

[Marie17]

This is the only reason I believe that Disney is looking for people to come to the parks & stay at the hotels. I am finally seeing ADVERTISING for Disney World on my TV here in Georgia. Really haven't seen that for quite a few years. I really wouldn't be that surprised to see a huge ad in the Journal Constitution in January or February trying to lure people for late spring & summer.

It's not like it is just an ad here or there but quite a few times a week and I usually tivo over the commercials but do watch the Disney ones that I catch.

 

[Mouseaholic!!!]

We saw the little local ads when we were at BWI the last 10 days. I'm talking about the big ad campaigns like earlier this year. Not like the Florida ads but the more general ads to entice people who may not think of WDW as a vacation choice.

We haven't seen a WDW ad in so many months in Maryland....I cannot remember!

My husband works with the ABC bureau in London daily and apparently they are SICK of WDW ads.....and they are CASTMEMBERS at ABC!

 

[Grumpy3]

Even if we don't have a recession in 2008, the democrat party candidates are already talking about tax increases so if they win we may be looking at recession in 2009. So imho we will get Disney discounts in either 2008 or 2009, we just have to have patience.

 

[Airb330]

Even if we don't have a recession in 2008, the democrat party candidates are already talking about tax increases so if they win we may be looking at recession in 2009. So imho we will get Disney discounts in either 2008 or 2009, we just have to have patience.

Oh please. Rolling back tax cuts to the wealthy is not a tax increase. It's called being fiscally responsible. Something the Republic Party seemed to forgot was one of their strengths. Grumpy in VA, say hi to Senators Mark Warner (D), Webb (D) and Governor Kaine (D) in 2008 for me please.

Anyway....I can see a slowdown at WDW, but less so than other places. Face it, Disney is Disney, and if people have their heart set on going, they'll find a way. I think the whole recession thing is a bit overrated. I don't have a family and I am young, so I don't have those issues to worry about. I have noticed that prices just always seem to go up, but raises are rare. I just hope everyone here spends money wisely and gets to Disney as often as they want.