I've been inquiring about Christmas week 2002 and there doesn't seem to be any sold-out resorts at all for the moment. This is prime time and as long as it's more then 9 months out there doesn't seem to be a big problem. I'm booking 17 days and I was able to get ressies in any class resort at the moment for that time period which is a little before Christmas week and through Jan. 1, 2003.
AP disscount rates are not available yet passed September; so, that could be another reason it's not too booked yet for Christmas time.
If you book in prime time like President's week or spring break or Easter it's bound to be crowded especially if you don't do it far in advance.
I still think it's hard to judge if Disney has rebounded or not. Also, I think it's a tool Disney is using to get leaner and meaner.