Hard to say...
This is a relatively new phenomina for marathon weekend. They offered discounted passes last year and I think the year prior. Both of these years were tough sell outs for the marathon. There were no discounts prior to these years. Discounts, if offered, may offset the increase, but generally it will be close. I guess that if you are looking to minimize pass costs, buy the sure price rather than possibly get shut out if they do not offer a race based discount on passes.