WDW and Universal. Who wins?

[ofcabbagesandkings]

Universal will win once E.U. opens. We just went to Universal Hollywood for one day and experienced their version of Nintendo Land. Having purchased early entry and once-use Express passes, our day was completely seamless. The games you could play using the extra-cost power bands made the land feel like you were stepping into a live video game. I never had to check my phone once to book a Genie+ ride, I didn't have to criss-cross the park to make the next lightning lane reservation, but started in the lower lot and then made our way back up to the entrance at our leisure. The only time I checked my phone at all was when we booked Toad's Cafe using the QR code posted in front.

It's hard to overstate how much extra work a WDW trip has become, and how much that takes away from the fun of a trip to the parks. The very wealthy can buy their way out of it with VIP tours, but the upper middle and middle classes, where WDW gets much of its revenue, resent having to do all this extra labor to maximize their minute per dollar while on their so-called vacation. WDW used to require some pre-planning, but once you arrived you could just enjoy your trip. Not so anymore.

We last visited WDW to go on the Galactic Starcruiser, an Imagineering masterpiece that deserved to be given more time. But now that they've short-sightedly shut that down, I don't see any reason to return to WDW in the future. But we'll be back to UO/IOA in 2025 for sure.

I expect that UO prices will soon jump to match the higher demand they'll experience once they surpass WDW in popularity and demand. But so long as the experience is fun and not stressful the way it is at WDW, I'll pay them.

 

[drenalin'junkie]

Any of most valuable franchise comparisons will have them roughly equal but most of the Disney brand is fully exploited, Universal brands are newer, more familiar worldwide and still growing.
Disney movies are flopping financially, huge box offices but even bigger budgets behind them.

 

[Brian Noble]

Disney movies are flopping financially,

Some are, some aren't. The 2023 releases on the upside so far (global box office of 2 times production or above):

Guardians: 3.4x production
Mermaid: 2.3x
Ant Man Quantumania: 2.3x
Elemental: 2.2x

On the other hand:

Indy #5: 1.2 (and unlikely to get a whole lot better)
Mansion: 0.5 (early, but also not much in the way of legs)

 

[Juliet25]

After 23 years of WDW vacations, we took our first trip to Universal this year. I don’t know what I was expecting, but I’d say I was EXTREMELY impressed overall.

We stayed in Royal Pacific to get the Express Pass, and boy was that worth it. Genie+ pales in comparison. We never waited more than 10 minutes for a ride. Money well spent. We spent maybe 6-7 hours a day in each park over the course of 3 days and we saw everything we wanted to see at a nice and relaxed pace.

The theming was so good. They have Disney beat there. HP was, of course, phenomenal, but even the smaller lands like Suess’s were so well executed. MK is really showing its age compared to Universal. HS is on par, and AK and Epcot are their own categories.

Disney absolutely has my heart, but for those who don’t share the Disney love, Universal is a great, and many ways superior, option.

 

[Juliet25]

If you like the HP movies, then to me, walking into Diagon Alley felt like I was walking into the world of the movies. The level of detail is exceptional.

The interactive wands are $$, but the spells are really neat. WDW doesn't currently have anything like them. While it isn't all that hard to figure out how they work, they have the feel of actual magic.

My kids loved the spells. They were very cool. MK had the card game that we tried to play, but it’s been broke for years. Not sure they even give out the cards any more.

The Duck Tales game in EPCOT is really well done.

 

[Juliet25]

I’ll sum it up pretty easily. Whens the last time you cried at Universal? I know people who cry the minute they hear the first few notes of HEA, or Certain Disney characters during nighttime shows.

Universal has some great rides and hotels, but there is no nostalgia. That is what’s missing and it always will.

I’ll wait till epic universe to really know what happens but for now, the Disney bubble and “ welcome home “ feeling can’t be touched

HP nostalgia is HUGE for Millennials. They came of age when the books were released, and HP land is a book lover’s dream. HP nostalgia will only grow as the kids who grew up on these books share them with their own kids.

 

[drenalin'junkie]

Some are, some aren't. The 2023 releases on the upside so far (global box office of 2 times production or above):

Guardians: 3.4x production
Mermaid: 2.3x
Ant Man Quantumania: 2.3x
Elemental: 2.2x

On the other hand:

Indy #5: 1.2 (and unlikely to get a whole lot better)
Mansion: 0.5 (early, but also not much in the way of legs)

Those numbers likely do not include post production costs, promo and distribution etc... because not a single financial analyst or media website came up near those . Most have a lot of those movies underwater or barely profitable.
Gross profits do not return to the studio, up to 60% go to theaters.
Hopefully the retail side will carry it's weight. That is Disney's real strong point.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

HP nostalgia is HUGE for Millennials. They came of age when the books were released, and HP land is a book lover’s dream. HP nostalgia will only grow as the kids who grew up on these books share them with their own kids.

HP land was built for those that loved and adored the existing HP books and movies.

Galaxy’s Edge was chosen to be geared towards only the Disney version of Star Wars and chose to ignore the lore and films that were loved and adored.

 

[Juliet25]

HP land was built for those that loved and adored the existing HP books and movies.

Galaxy’s Edge was chosen to be geared towards only the Disney version of Star Wars and chose to ignore the lore and films that were loved and adored.

Yep. My DH was a huge Star Wars fan and blames Disney for ruining the franchise. I grew up with OG Star Wars and enjoyed the last three movies, but I can see how they pale in comparison. For me, it was really the nostalgia factor of Luke, Leia, Hans, and Chewie. I have no desire to see anything else. My kids seem to enjoy the Mandolorian though.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

HP land was built for those that loved and adored the existing HP books and movies.

Galaxy’s Edge was chosen to be geared towards only the Disney version of Star Wars and chose to ignore the lore and films that were loved and adored.

I was def. one of those people who said "star wars is going to probably bring in those mega fans"...and I was wrong. The starcruiser offered a small spot for them but the land IMO did not have the same effect that HP had when it first came out.

Most of us Universal peeps can state that before HP came onto the scene Universal was not really in the game much, but since then (which it's been 13 years since it opened and 16 years since it was announced) they've absolutely joined.

I'm not sure exactly all of that went into Galaxy's Edge not being as popular with the fans but I do have some DISer friends that are very into Star Wars and they can appreciate some portions of it. I think Disney tried to capture a certain feel someone would get entering the lands but it never fully got there IMO. It's not on the level that you get with HP. I will give them credit that for Star Wars they had a hard benchmark there because the original movies had been done decades ago and Disney needed to keep that in mind. Maybe it would have been different had HP been built decades after the original movies had been released, IDK.

 

[Brian Noble]

Those numbers likely do not include post production costs, promo and distribution etc...

No they don’t. But from what I can tell once you get to about 2x or 2.5x you are probably closer to break even at worst…and that’s probably studio math meant in part to not pay off anyone with a net backend. The payout to the theater is also graduated, early weeks are much more biased to the distributor. That’s not great for Elemental for example.

I think we are also still trying to get back to the idea of people going to movies generally, at least before Barbenheimer.

 

[bryaalre]

Those numbers likely do not include post production costs, promo and distribution etc... because not a single financial analyst or media website came up near those . Most have a lot of those movies underwater or barely profitable.
Gross profits do not return to the studio, up to 60% go to theaters.
Hopefully the retail side will carry it's weight. That is Disney's real strong point.

As studios tend to not be very transparent, we never really know what breakeven points truly are. For starters, the reported budgets are never correct and are just estimates that leaked to outlets who than report them. There is also the fact that not all studios budgets include the same type of expenses. Pixar stated that they include some expenses that other studios like Illumination or DreamWorks do not.

We also do not know how much take a studio gets from theaters as it varies not only from movie to movie but also week to week. The most common thing is studios get 50% domestic take, 40% international (less China), and 25% China.

As Brian Noble stated, the general rule is about 2.5X the budget gets to breakeven. This is more for bigger budget movies but is a good rule of thumb.

There are other variables that need to be considered like participations but most of those are not known. One that we do know is Nolan's 20% first take on Oppenheimer but the usual back end stuff is much smaller and out of sight.

A last factor is that these calculations only involve theatrical financials and does not take into account other revenue streams like PVOD, streaming or licensing. Disney generates a lot more from these streams than most other studios, especially licensing and toys. The Little Mermaid has under performed theatrically and is about at the break even point but will make a good chunk via licensing and streaming.

I am not going to go into Hollywood accounting, but there are a ton of ways studios will make a movie lose money, even though it is wildly profitable, in order to not pay profit sharing. I.e. Harry potter 5 making almost a billion at the box office but Warner Brothers reporting it still lost them $167M.

 

[tony67]

Some are, some aren't. The 2023 releases on the upside so far (global box office of 2 times production or above):

Guardians: 3.4x production
Mermaid: 2.3x
Ant Man Quantumania: 2.3x
Elemental: 2.2x

On the other hand:

Indy #5: 1.2 (and unlikely to get a whole lot better)
Mansion: 0.5 (early, but also not much in the way of legs)

Unfortunately for Disney the only one of those that will do slightly better than break even is Guardians as I understand it.

As others mentioned the costs over production, but also the share that goes to the theater that is showing the movie.
And I don't think there will be much of a home video market for these - if there is even a home video market anymore.

Regardless of all that - will any on these movies drive any interest in the parks - probably not other than Guardians - but I suspect they will continue to try to replace more classic rides with these things that no one cares about and will not be of interest at all in 10 years.

I think Universal is winning already - that fact that this is even a valid discussion topic says that - not that long ago Universal was in the category of sea world - now its a contender because Disney passed on Harry Potter. EU will make all the difference. Also the improvements in Universal Studios with the new kids area coming in about a year and minions stuff really giving it something for small kids. They also treat their annual passholders very well.

One of the issues with Disney is they are replacing the nostalgia factor with new stuff that really does not have legs IMO. Then there is the glee in replacing the classic stuff that built Disney and craping on the legacy. Even when they have an IP that can bring in people they mess it up - ie Star Wars. I'm not a big Star Wars fan but no one cares about the two suns BS - they want the characters from the original trilogy - they left a ton of money on the table for their arrogance. ROTR is the most overrated ride I have ever been on. The only recent ride I found impressive was Flight of Passage.

I go to Disney every few years - there was a time I went a couple of times a year - but with all the planning and reduced quality and broken rides its just not worth it. I go to Universal at least once a year for 10 or so days - sometimes twice.

Going to Disney I feel ripped off for the most part. Paying for tickets that have a very short date range - the reservation system - Genie+ - broken rides (space mountain, Rock and Roll Roller coaster and pirates are always broken) - paying extra to just get on a ride because there are no VQ spots. No more seminars at the food and wine festival. No more special events at Food and wine. 2PM park hoping. Over priced resorts that for the most part are nothing special. No more late nights - like 1AM MK on a Saturday - and very limited EMH and only for deluxe resorts. Rude and Unhappy cast members. Very poor customer service at the hotels when you have an issue good luck getting a manager or getting it resolved.

Currently I am on the fence about going to Disney at all and I am even considering staying at Universal and ubering over to Disney for one or two days - the same amount of time Ill spend at Sea World.

In the end for 2022 Universal was in line with 2019 attendance - Disney is not. that sounds like winning to me.

 

[Brian Noble]

In the end for 2022 Universal was in line with 2019 attendance - Disney is not. that sounds like winning to me.

2022 saw plenty of capacity-imposed limitations at WDW---no new APs at all that year, and a good chunk of days with park passes sold out. Even 2023 is going to show a little bit of a hangover, with no new APs until after spring break season was over.

We shifted to Universal for 2023 partly because we couldn't get APs at WDW, but could at UO.

 

[Smugpugmug]

I was def. one of those people who said "star wars is going to probably bring in those mega fans"...and I was wrong. The starcruiser offered a small spot for them but the land IMO did not have the same effect that HP had when it first came out.

Most of us Universal peeps can state that before HP came onto the scene Universal was not really in the game much, but since then (which it's been 13 years since it opened and 16 years since it was announced) they've absolutely joined.

I'm not sure exactly all of that went into Galaxy's Edge not being as popular with the fans but I do have some DISer friends that are very into Star Wars and they can appreciate some portions of it. I think Disney tried to capture a certain feel someone would get entering the lands but it never fully got there IMO. It's not on the level that you get with HP. I will give them credit that for Star Wars they had a hard benchmark there because the original movies had been done decades ago and Disney needed to keep that in mind. Maybe it would have been different had HP been built decades after the original movies had been released, IDK.

I'll give Galaxy's Edge this: at least it's more creatively interesting than Avenger's Campus in DCA. Every time I walk through Marvel Superhero Island, I thank them for being the ones stopping Disney from building Avenger's Campus in Florida.

 

[peabody58]

For us, a retired couple approaching our late 60's, WDW is the winner. It is our Happy Place and our retirement getaway, hence DVC and AP's. Love staying at different resorts, eating at our favorite eateries, immersing our self's in the bubble. Economically, with our DVC long paid for, WDW is cheaper. We did do a week at US and while it was fun, we are not thrill ride people anymore and missed the laid back vibe of WDW. Love that Epic is coming as it will force WDW to up it's game.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I'll give Galaxy's Edge this: at least it's more creatively interesting than Avenger's Campus in DCA. Every time I walk through Marvel Superhero Island, I thank them for being the ones stopping Disney from building Avenger's Campus in Florida.

I was initially bummed that it would probably be a really long time before we got back to Disneyland to see it but after hearing all the lukewarm reception to it I was fine lol.

I know it's a bit dated but I always kinda like Superhero area of Universal because it felt so much like the comics and while I'm not a comic book person (other than I read archie stuff as a kid) I like that theming.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

missed the laid back vibe of WDW.

I think this is more indicative of your place in life where you have more limitations in what you can do because Universal is by far much more laid back than WDW. But if what you're doing at WDW is more focused on the more chill stuff and being very leisurely I can see where the more tame rides make you feel more laid back and no pressure to do any ride. But from a park experience WDW is a hectic nightmare and USO complete opposite.

And don't get me wrong I like the tame stuff, and I don't do the big thrill rides at Universal but there is no competition that can be had for comparing WDW and USO in terms of being laid back not when you have Genie+/ILL, park reservations (until next year for date based tickets), angry people in much greater numbers, high expense, and long long waits (especially if you don't do Genie+/ILL).

 

[Smugpugmug]

I was initially bummed that it would probably be a really long time before we got back to Disneyland to see it but after hearing all the lukewarm reception to it I was fine lol.

I know it's a bit dated but I always kinda like Superhero area of Universal because it felt so much like the comics and while I'm not a comic book person (other than I read archie stuff as a kid) I like that theming.

It's some good old 90s cheese and I'm here for it. The costumes for the X Men and Spiderman are................something people are wearing though.

I watched a few walkthroughs of it including the Webslinger ride and that ride is one of the most creatively bankrupt things I've seen from Disney. I'll take anything built at WDW recently over that.

 

[bryaalre]

I think this is more indicative of your place in life where you have more limitations in what you can do because Universal is by far much more laid back than WDW. But if what you're doing at WDW is more focused on the more chill stuff and being very leisurely I can see where the more tame rides make you feel more laid back and no pressure to do any ride. But from a park experience WDW is a hectic nightmare and USO complete opposite.

And don't get me wrong I like the tame stuff, and I don't do the big thrill rides at Universal but there is no competition that can be had for comparing WDW and USO in terms of being laid back not when you have Genie+/ILL, park reservations (until next year for date based tickets), angry people in much greater numbers, high expense, and long long waits (especially if you don't do Genie+/ILL).

I'm the complete opposite. I find Universal to be hectic and Disney to be leisurely and chill.

The last two times I have been to Disney (March & October 2022) and the last time i was at Universal (March 2022), I felt a lot more relaxed at Disney vs Universal. My family did 2 days at Universal and during March 2022 and left early the second day as it just was not worth it.

Now it is not an apples to apples comparison as we were staying on Disney property and so when it got super busy we just made our way back to the hotel to cool off and find some food. Where as Universal that was not really possible.

I have always been a planner and like to know what I am doing throughout the day. So, Universal has always been the less chill park as I am always all over the place there, compared to Disney where I am more laid back having made some plans in advance. Even with Genie+, I understand that I am of the minority that likes Genie+, I still find Disney more laid back. I was already using my phone for fastpass throughout the day and so I am not actually using my phone anymore than I already was prior to Genie+.