Wait Time Theory

[Doug S]

So several of you stated Touring Plans does a good job. Dies that mean I should trust their assumptions about my touring plan that I'm building for January? In many cases it has 0-5 minute waits on almost everything (for the most popular I plan to get FP's.)

They are almost always within 5 minutes, at worst 10 minutes. Keep in mind predictions will change throughout the day as they get live data on what Disney is saying & users are reporting real waits are. But yes, the numbers they are predicting right now should be about what you end up waiting as long as a ride doesn't go down, etc.

 

[flortlebap]

I think you've just described the entire purpose of the Lines app from Touring Plans.

This! And this is why I never check wait times on MDE.

 

[mousehockey37]

You can theorize and try to predict all you want, but the wait times are never going to be consistently right.

You get one large group (BTG's, Marching Bands, Cheerleaders, etc) that travel as a set of larger groups and your 5 minute wait is now a full queue.

Back when Pandora opened, I forget which ride it was, but someone actually had the empty queue time clocked at like 8 minutes or something to get through. So, think about that. A 10 minute wait could actually be a walk-on, it's just that the queue is that long to get through. I know that Finding Nemo is a pretty long queue and a 10 minute wait is a walk-on.

So the math geeks and theorists of the world can try and do this, but there's so many variables that it's nearly impossible. I just check in when I'm around those areas and if it's worth it, I'll get in line or see if I can snag a FP.

 

[bryanb]

About ten years ago, here's how we decided wait times:

Sue: Hey did we remember to update the wait time?
Joe: I'll call Mike up in front. I don't know when we sent (the red card) through. Where is the line up to?
Sue: I think it starts somewhere before the stairs right now, so about, maybe 25 minutes?
Joe: Okay, I'll make it 30 minutes then.

Ten minutes later.

Mike: (stopping by before going on break) Hey the parade just ended and the line is now past the front. I had to open the side queue.
Joe: Hmmm, let's make it 45 minutes.

Fifteen minutes later.

Mike: (coming back from break) Whoa it's suddenly a mess out there. Weird... it's been so dead all morning.
Sue: (shrugs) Okay I'll bump it up to an hour. If it says this way we'll need to get grab the stanchions.