VGF2 or RIV direct

[DonMacGregor]

Yes.

And I'm also saying it will be years or decades before we see this effect.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume that 1% of direct RIV buyers sell every year. This means:

In one year, 99% can stay where ever they want at 7 months.

In two years, 98% can stay where ever they want at 7 months.

etc.

It will be years or decades before direct RIV buyers start to see this effect.

No, I totally get it. Just an extreme hypothetical for illustrative purposes. Ultimately though, unless no one ever sells their direct DVC contracts, then some increasing percentage of owned RIV points will be tied exclusively to the resort, and at some point that has to affect reservations.

Does it, at some point (understandably well down the road), negatively affect the value (or at least the perceived value) of the direct points, especially the original cadre of owners?

 

[sethschroeder]

Even if it’s only a 20% flip that still creates a pretty awful booking issue at Rivera.

I honestly don't see it impacting much.

But if 20% of RIV owners can only book at RIV, then it will make booking RIV that much harder for RIV members because that 20% won't be trying to stay elsewhere.

You already have lots of people only booking at their home resort and you have other people booking at their home resort at 11 months to have something. In the end there is always lots of breakage every year that is straight up wasted points that create extra empty rooms.

Might need a little extra flexibility as a resale owner we will see.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Were you told moving forward that all resorts would have them? My discussions with two different guides when considering RIV direct never indicated it was the way of the future.

Matter of fact, it wasn’t brought up as part of our discussion.

Well, it’s hard for me to say since these boards have provided me so much information that I tended to talk a lot during the sales pitch (haha…shocker). So, was it coming? I don’t know. I pretty much told her what I knew and heard nothing to the contrary. She never brought it up in any of our phone conversations prior, which can also be considered a problem.

Im referring to the sales pitch as the general body of knowledge. Actually, to be honest, I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen anything from Disney on it. I certainly didn’t see it in the promotional materials. Hey, maybe there are no resale restrictions!!!! I never looked deeper because it doesn’t matter to me.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I honestly don't see it impacting much.



You already have lots of people only booking at their home resort and you have other people booking at their home resort at 11 months to have something. In the end there is always lots of breakage every year that is straight up wasted points that create extra empty rooms.

Might need a little extra flexibility as a resale owner we will see.

Seems to me if you're an original owner and I'm a (hypothetical) resale guy, then this year we're both wrangling for that same sweet sweet studio at the 11 month window. Next year, even though I'd really love to stay somewhere else, I cant, so there we'll be, both wrangling for that same sweet studio at 11 months. Next year maybe there's yet another resale guy clogging the toilet (it only takes one owner, not 1%, to snag the specific room category you wanted on the specific day you wanted). And, I can't book that studio, then look to swap to another resort at 7 months (and thus freeing it up), because I'm forver tied to RIV.

Seems it's the direct owner that loses. At least resale guy knew when he bought his points that he had no flexibility and wasn't going anywhere, so it's baked in to his expectations.

Again, maybe not very likely, but it is logically and statistically possible.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Seems to me if you're an original owner and I'm a (hypothetical) resale guy, then this year we're both wrangling for that same sweet sweet studio at the 11 month window. Next year, even though I'd really love to stay somewhere else, I cant, so there we'll be, both wrangling for that same sweet studio at 11 months. Next year maybe there's yet another resale guy clogging the toilet (it only takes one owner, not 1%, to snag the specific room category you wanted on the specific day you wanted). And, I can't book that studio, then look to swap to another resort at 7 months, because I'm forver tied to RIV.

Seems it's the direct owner that loses. At least resale guy knew when he bought his points that he had no flexibility and wasn't going anywhere, so it's baked in to his expectations.

Again, maybe not very likely, but it is logically and statistically possible.

I’ve considered this, but I’m assuming the availability to point ratio is such that it will allow for availability regardless. Now, if I’m RIV resale owner, I’m always on at 11 months to the day I want to go. I’ve got no other options, so I need to get that booked. But aren’t most RIV direct owners who are trying to secure a TS or STD room going to do that anyhow?

I feel DVC is pretty much for people who plan, and unless you are at a resort with consistent open availability, you are booking at your home resort as a safety at 11 months, especially if you want a special booking category. No sense in paying premium prices if you’re going to wait until 7 months.

 

[Littlelulu01]

Yes.

And I'm also saying it will be years or decades before we see this effect.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume that 1% of direct RIV buyers sell every year. This means:

In one year, 99% can stay where ever they want at 7 months.

In two years, 98% can stay where ever they want at 7 months.

etc.

It will be years or decades before direct RIV buyers start to see this effect.

With additional gfv points I think it’ll be an issue much sooner. Roughly 100 million “dvc 1” points competing with around 6.7 million Rivera points for 7 months ressies. That will get very lopsided real quick if they pump millions more to “dvc 1.” Rivera studios are already very difficult to get. I was hopeful the Rivera resale points could eventually be used at future resorts thus even the balance. But if we instead get millions extra “dvc 1”points and no concessions for Rivera resale, the 7 month booking ability at Rivera becomes impossible and the 11 month Rivera booking window will be like akv value or club level. As it now stands, Rivera points are lucky to book at 11 months. add the new gfv points to the equation and it just accelerates the timeline. Rivera home resort bookings will go from extreme difficulty to nearly impossible. I just don’t think dvd will do that to Rivera. I’m betting Some type of restrictions will be placed on the new gfv points.

 

[Sandisw]

Seems to me if you're an original owner and I'm a (hypothetical) resale guy, then this year we're both wrangling for that same sweet sweet studio at the 11 month window. Next year, even though I'd really love to stay somewhere else, I cant, so there we'll be, both wrangling for that same sweet studio at 11 months. Next year maybe there's yet another resale guy clogging the toilet (it only takes one owner, not 1%, to snag the specific room category you wanted on the specific day you wanted). And, I can't book that studio, then look to swap to another resort at 7 months (and thus freeing it up), because I'm forver tied to RIV.

Seems it's the direct owner that loses. At least resale guy knew when he bought his points that he had no flexibility and wasn't going anywhere, so it's baked in to his expectations.

Again, maybe not very likely, but it is logically and statistically possible.

But again, how is that any different then any other resort of popular rooms? People compete year around for AKV CL...so I see the same competition at 11 months for SV at RIV.

 

[Sandisw]

With additional gfv points I think it’ll be an issue much sooner. Roughly 100 million “dvc 1” points competing with around 6.7 million Rivera points for 7 months ressies. That will get very lopsided real quick if they pump millions more to “dvc 1.” Rivera studios are already very difficult to get. I was hopeful the Rivera resale points could eventually be used at future resorts thus even the balance. But if we instead get millions extra “dvc 1”points and no concessions for Rivera resale, the 7 month booking ability at Rivera becomes impossible and the 11 month Rivera booking window will be like akv value or club level. As it now stands, Rivera points are lucky to book at 11 months. add the new gfv points to the equation and it just accelerates the timeline. Rivera home resort bookings will go from extreme difficulty to nearly impossible. I just don’t think dvd will do that to Rivera. I’m betting Some type of restrictions will be placed on the new gfv points.

Yes, they will be adding new resort points to L14 booking, but those are coming with rooms too.

And, every resale that currently gets sold that was purchased before 2019, is now taken out of the pool of points allowed for RIV. So, I think that alone will keep the balance in check,

I definitely think that trading into RIV at 7 months for non owners is going to be much harder as there will be less RIV owners moving because they can’t..

 

[Nabas]

But again, how is that any different then any other resort of popular rooms? People compete year around for AKV CL...so I see the same competition at 11 months for SV at RIV.

Right, but there are only a handful (24?) of AKV CL rooms. That's what makes them so difficult to book even at 11 months.

BWV only has about 15% Standard View rooms, yet BWV owners compete for those only during certain months of the year. At the moment, there are plenty of nights available for a BWV Standard View in February, March, and April:




BWV owners almost never have to compete for the "common" Garden/Water View at 11 months, even for Food & Wine Festival.

At RIV, you might eventually end up with a situation where RIV owners are competing for "common" rooms the same way that BWV owners complete for "uncommon" Standard View rooms during certain months.

 

[Sandisw]

Right, but there are only a handful (24?) of AKV CL rooms. That's what makes them so difficult to book even at 11 months.

BWV only has about 15% Standard View rooms, yet BWV owners compete for those only during certain months of the year. At the moment, there are plenty of nights available for a BWV Standard View in February, March, and April:

View attachment 577954


BWV owners almost never have to compete for the "common" Garden/Water View at 11 months, even for Food & Wine Festival.

At RIV, you might eventually end up with a situation where RIV owners are competing for "common" rooms the same way that BWV owners complete for "uncommon" Standard View rooms during certain months.

I guess I am just not convinced that has anything to do with the resale restrictions vs. the point charts being what they are and RIV owners wanting to get the SV rooms vs. PV rooms. I think SV is only about 35%?

So, when we talk about how bad it could be for RIV owners getting what they want, I think it has more to do with SV being much more comparable to other resorts, and why they would be popular. Even without restrictions, I think the competition for SV rooms would be exactly the same.

I do not see RIV owners not being able to book PV during home resort period. As I said, those with resale points...which I will have...will have to be sure to use them during home resort time and use them during banking window so if something happens, they can be banked. That is what I plan to do!

 

[jbreen2010]

The resale restrictions with RIV scared us away from adding on at that property. Personally I love that you can try a different resort out here and there

 

[Bjaiken77]

As I said, those with resale points...which I will have...will have to be sure to use them during home resort time and use them during banking window so if something happens, they can be banked. That is what I plan to do!

Resale needs to drop a little more for me. I will definitely buy RIV resale, as I’m fine staying there only. I just need more people to sell and for me to get them at the right price.

 

[Paul Stupin]

The Riviera POS was written to allow DVC to remove the restrictions if they chose to or even to potentially offer the ability, for a fee, to have your resale points changed from non-qualified to qualified as if they were purchased direct.

VGF had no such items in their POS.

The bottom line is that none of us really know beyond a shadow of a doubt whether or not Disney is capable of instituting resale restrictions on VGF2, regardless of it being part of the same condo association. If they don’t, it undermines their own strategy, and sends a confusing mixed message to the majority of buyers who aren’t as knowledgeable as those on these boards.

If I’ve already bought at the Riviera, I’m going to be pretty angry to see a new DVC addition being sold without the restrictions that I had to accept, and if I haven’t bought there but am considering buying, the lack of resale restrictions might drive me to VGF2, thus both undermining and cannibalizing Riviera sales. (And it’s not like Riviera is a monumental, runaway success.) This situation would be made even worse if both resorts were priced at the same level, one with restrictions, one without. Try explaining that to someone new to DVC.

it just seems cleaner and more logical that Disney will figure out a way to keep those restrictions in place, since as an earlier informative post noted it’s more a contract than a condo association issue anyway.

 

[Bing Showei]

No... it's a contractual rule. As an attorney, I pored over the contract, and then pored over it again with an attorney who specializes in timeshare law.

You've played this "I'm an attorney" card several times now and I don't know what sort of law you practice; you may be an amazeballs lawyer in your field; but you seem to struggle at reading/take gross liberties at interpreting the POS and the terms we agreed to when we bought in. From suggesting Disney can add points to a point chart to account for refurbishment purposes (https://www.disboards.com/threads/dvc-point-balancing-2022-vs-2021.3820183/post-62559598), to suggesting adding a pool is grounds to increase point costs (https://www.disboards.com/threads/dvc-point-balancing-2022-vs-2021.3820183/post-62561661), you repeatedly miss the mark on understanding the timeshare you bought, or the terms under which you bought it.

At one point, you compared the devaluation of ownership people were upset about (via the new shifting Easter 7-season point chart) to the loss of ownership percentage due to the lock-off premium in defense of Disney's changes that violated the POS.

Well, I am a lawyer... but not a real estate lawyer.

But no... the lock-off premium has the exact same effect that you are railing against. Most of the resorts utilize 2BR lockoffs, and they can use that to increase the points. But even if they don't increase the points FURTHER, the lock-off premium is already diluting your ownership -- They know that most of the lockoffs are not booked as 2 bedrooms. Thus, while you may own 00.002% of a 2-bedroom unit.... when the lock-offs get broken up, you actually only the equivalent of 00.0018% of a studio and 00.0016% of a 1 bedroom. It's the exact dilution that you're claiming they can't do -- and they are already doing it.

While both do devalue the ownership percentage, the part you seem to be willfully ignoring is that with the latter, we agreed to the lock-off premium when we bought into the system. In the VGF POS, Exhibit G is explicit about how Lock-off Premiums are handled and we all acknowledged the additional costs when we bought in. Any issue raised with this lock-off premium historically has been around the fiduciary duties of the DVCMC in increasing that premium without justifiable cause.

As to the former, artificially creating additional points to book a resort (by way of shifting different weeks into different seasons depending on a shifting holiday) without offset, is not. Is this case, Disney is redefining what "holiday" meant when they originally drafted the POS.

As it pertains to the what Disney can and can't do, you seem to give little credence in the explicit terms of the Agreement we all signed when we bought in; in this instance, dismissing terms in the POS that clearly outline the duties of the Association when representing the owners and entering into the exchange, somehow concluding that is permitted because “new contracts” are drafted.

I hired a Florida-based attorney who specializes in Florida timeshare law to go over the exact terms of the POS with me prior to my conversations with DVCMC around a tax issues and again around the 2022 point chart. Those extensive, POS-specific conversations informed the points I presented to Disney. After Disney took time to "look into" it, in both cases they found cause to change course. Per the point charts, like in 2019, Disney Legal conceded nothing, but like in 2019 Disney's plan is to correct for the additional points created by the new seasons.

I'm not sure how many times Disney needs to back pedal on policy before you start to read the POS the way other members do. But as much as you, and the guy who charged me to do it, would like us to believe, reading and understanding the terms in the POS is not something lawyers have a monopoly on.

 

[sethschroeder]

Rivera home resort bookings will go from extreme difficulty to nearly impossible.

Ummm no

It's a whole resort not some small subsection.

In addition the resort is extremely well balanced for room selection types.

Plus slightly on high side in points will have some looking to jump to a cheaper resort at 7 months.

It's going to take 20-30 years for likely just 20% of the points to be locked in at Riviera.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Ummm no

It's a whole resort not some small subsection.

In addition the resort is extremely well balanced for room selection types.

Plus slightly on high side in points will have some looking to jump to a cheaper resort at 7 months.

It's going to take 20-30 years for likely just 20% of the points to be locked in at Riviera.

I’ve tried to use my direct VGF dvc points to book the Riviera at 7 months and it’s basically impossible. All the new VGF2 buyers will make it even more difficult, which is a shame, because Disney will use this as a selling tool and it won’t be true.

 

[Sandisw]

I’ve tried to use my direct VGF dvc points to book the Riviera at 7 months and it’s basically impossible. All the new VGF2 buyers will make it even more difficult, which is a shame, because Disney will use this as a selling tool and it won’t be true.

I definitely think that 7 month bookings will remain difficult at RIV because it’s proving to be popular and once you do have resale points, less owners will be moving.

It is one of the reasons I didn’t mind buying resale points there because I want to stay there a lot and don’t want to have to depend on using SSR.

I actually think it will be easier to get the VGF studios now. But, I agree, they may market VGF and RIV as interchangeable and that buying either will get you the other.

 

[sethschroeder]

I’ve tried to use my direct VGF dvc points to book the Riviera at 7 months and it’s basically impossible. All the new VGF2 buyers will make it even more difficult, which is a shame, because Disney will use this as a selling tool and it won’t be true.

Except that's at 7 months in a new resort when Epcot is already harder to get than elsewhere.

That doesn't say much about the 11 month booking window. You tried to compare the whole resort to AKV Value or Club level which just won't ever be true.

Yes certain time of years will go at 11 months but that's everywhere.

You have right now 32% of points for Cabins at CCV. You can still get rooms just possibly not studios most time of year. That's with a 32% shortage in bookable room points.

RIV as a resort will never be close to Value or Club level rooms unless DVC in general really takes a massive hit to how points are used.

Increase to minium purchase amounts for new contracts also should help as more people will have 150 points which gets you to Studio Prem View point levels for a week.

 

[DVCsloth]

I booked 3 nights at Riviera back in July Standard Studio and have 7 nights in September. 3 nights standard studio 4 nights standard 1 BR.
I'm using my VGF and CCV points and I think the only reason I was able to book standard view was because of covid. I kept stalking the RAT and September finally came through. I don't see it getting any easier to get a standard room there in the future at 7 months, I just wanted to try the resort and ended up loving it. I may add a small contract there in the future to give me a few nights near EPCOT and HS. I think you will have availability for preferred view but the points for that are more than I want to spend so I will mostly stay at my home resorts which are pretty great places to stay as well. 104 Days to go!

 

[Paul Stupin]

Except that's at 7 months in a new resort when Epcot is already harder to get than elsewhere.

That doesn't say much about the 11 month booking window. You tried to compare the whole resort to AKV Value or Club level which just won't ever be true.

Yes certain time of years will go at 11 months but that's everywhere.

You have right now 32% of points for Cabins at CCV. You can still get rooms just possibly not studios most time of year. That's with a 32% shortage in bookable room points.

RIV as a resort will never be close to Value or Club level rooms unless DVC in general really takes a massive hit to how points are used.

Increase to minium purchase amounts for new contracts also should help as more people will have 150 points which gets you to Studio Prem View point levels for a week.

I’m sorry, maybe I don’t understand your points, but I never mentioned anything about AKV Value or Club level. All I’m saying is that new VGF2 buyers will be told that one main advantage to buying direct is the ability to book at new Disney resorts, the only one currently being Riviera, at 7 months. My experience is that it’s almost impossible to do. I’ve been successful, however, booking other Epcot resorts at 7 months, but that doesn’t apply to my post.