Let’s calculate! I consider something economical if it breaks even at the 10 year mark (like solar, mortgage points, etc…)
Let’s say you buy a 136pt contract @ $400/pt = $54,400 which gets you 6 nights a year (Friday-Monday) in a VGC studio in the fall/spring.
Call it $7.50/pt for dues (rounding, don’t feel like calculating all 10 years). $7.50 x 136pts x 10 years = $10,200 dues cost.
$54,400 + $10,200 = $64,600 to stay 60 nights = $1076/night
We are almost to that point. If you believe the cost of a weekend night will go from $800 to $1200 over the 10 year mark, then you will likely break even at 10 years.
People are free to use a different period of time as the contract is good until 2060. Over 20 years, and $8.50/pt dues average, that comes to $77,520 for 120 nights, or $646/night.
Factors ignored for simplicity: opportunity costs of the initial $54,400, inflation, taxes, possible future tax deductions, borrowing costs if applicable, future Disney discounts to GCH hotel rates, DLT impact, future closures/wasted points, etc…
TL;DR = I will probably bid $360-$380 for a 50-150 point VGC contract if it matches my UY, but $400/pt isn’t entirely out of the question, either.
ETA: here’s a 3 night stay for this weekend:
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If you paid this twice a year for ten years, total cost is $55,387….roughly the breakeven for $400/pt at current prices, no future increases ~12 years.
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