VGC resale owner here... waiting to see what the pricing is like for DLT direct. We are a California based family of five with three young children, so DLT isn't as appealing to us with it's ratio of studios to larger rooms. VGC has more of a balance, and the location is fantastic. I hope the market softens a bit for VGC (would love more points there). However, with Disney raising the direct price it leaves lower priced resale contracts vulnerable to ROFR. People may tell you they never take VGC in ROFR, but we had one taken in late 2020 for $175/point...so rarely taken yes, but not never. We have some Saratoga direct points purchased when the minimum buy-in was lower..hoping to use those at DLT if availability permits. Time will tell.
To answer your questions;
I don't know about your travel preferences/family size/etc., but for my family I would still buy fVGC. I would negotiate big time. There are quite a few more contracts on the market than usual, that should work in your favor.
I think starting DLT prices are going to be high. Perhaps $250-280/point. Why else would they keep raising VGC, now up to $310/point? Making room for the newcomer is my guess. I think the points chart will be lower than VGC, but not by much.
Do I consider the Disneyland Hotel to be a moderate hotel? No. But it's also not on par with the Grand. To quote Pete Werner,
DVC in general is "deluxe adjacent". I agree wholeheartedly.
I don't know enough about rack rate to make a proper DVC comparison. What I do know is the rack rate at VGC is astronomical, especially when compared to DVC pricing.
I think the market may soften a bit, but not to pre-pandemic prices. There is limited quantity at VGC, a better mix of unit sizes, and the location & deluxe category makes it unique to the resort. I am by no means a DVC veteran, but from what I have observed, the best time to buy DVC was yesterday/last week/last year.
Hope that helps!