VGC has skyrocketed! 335 per point

[AmicusDye]

OK, so posted well under market, hundreds of people on the listing page, and then accepted an offer almost immediately? The broker had to know they were leaving thousands on the table at that price. Something is off, I just don't pay enough 4D DVC chess to know wth was happening there.

 

[Aussie RJ]

I was told there were multiple full price offers within minutes

 

[FFMickey]

I was told there were multiple full price offers within minutes

I don’t doubt it. It was way under market value.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I missed it. What was the UY and amount of points? It was $10 less than ours from last month!

 

[FFMickey]

I missed it. What was the UY and amount of points? It was $10 less than ours from last month!

It was 100 pts with Feb UY. Wrong UY for me.

 

[elenex]

And then there were none

 

[ClaraOswald]

I really want to know what that 335 one sold for. (Or if it was just pulled.)

 

[NVDISFamily]

And then there were none

Give it a few years. There will be more VGC contracts on the market. I do wonder if this current madness and how many people (I'm guilty) are telling their DVC guides I'll buy some points RIGHT NOW at 310 will make the ROFR monster wake up and ninja some VGC points if the price is low enough.

My guess... 3 to 5 years and this will be remembered as a fun and interesting time. I do feel lucky to have jumped in and grabbed a few points in the last 12 months. Did I get the bottom of the market - no. But still a fair price.

 

[elenex]

Give it a few years. There will be more VGC contracts on the market. I do wonder if this current madness and how many people (I'm guilty) are telling their DVC guides I'll buy some points RIGHT NOW at 310 will make the ROFR monster wake up and ninja some VGC points if the price is low enough.

My guess... 3 to 5 years and this will be remembered as a fun and interesting time. I do feel lucky to have jumped in and grabbed a few points in the last 12 months. Did I get the bottom of the market - no. But still a fair price.

3-5 years from now, 335 may look like a bargain. Agreed though, this is a fascinating time and I'm also glad I was able to buy 2 reasonable contracts over the past 12ish months. And I'm also guilty of telling multiple guides that I'll buy immediately at 310

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Give it a few years. There will be more VGC contracts on the market. I do wonder if this current madness and how many people (I'm guilty) are telling their DVC guides I'll buy some points RIGHT NOW at 310 will make the ROFR monster wake up and ninja some VGC points if the price is low enough.

My guess... 3 to 5 years and this will be remembered as a fun and interesting time. I do feel lucky to have jumped in and grabbed a few points in the last 12 months. Did I get the bottom of the market - no. But still a fair price.

Disney can do things we never anticipated to drive erratic market trends. VGF resale prices plunged from the $190’s after they decided to turn BPK into 200 studios. VGF no longer became the boutique exclusive resort that ruined it for existing owners. No one saw the TOT at VDH that drove a buying frenzy for VGC resale. I hate to suggest this but what if Disney were to implement the same ToT and no parking at VGC. or if they convert a whole new wing into 200 more studios like the did at VGF. My point is, we are at the mercy of things beyond our control and the values of our existing contracts can change very quickly.

 

[DVChris]

Disney can do things we never anticipated to drive erratic market trends. VGF resale prices plunged from the $190’s after they decided to turn BPK into 200 studios. VGF no longer became the boutique exclusive resort that ruined it for existing owners. No one saw the TOT at VDH that drove a buying frenzy for VGC resale. I hate to suggest this but what if Disney were to implement the same ToT and no parking at VGC. or if they convert a whole new wing into 200 more studios like the did at VGF. My point is, we are at the mercy of things beyond our control and the values of our existing contracts can change very quickly.

Or raise direct VGC to $400+!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Or raise direct VGC to $400+!

Oh that’s coming. Probably in 5 years

 

[Johtull12]

About as long as it takes to drink the water in the 6 states which have even higher median house prices than California which are - Hawaii, Wyoming, Massachusetts, Alaska, Connecticut, and Washington (the state.)
The deal with VGC is that there are only 48 villas (71 if all lock offs booked separately.) Compare that to say Riviera, which has 341/489 villas - basically you would need 7 VGCs to make 1 Riviera.
The effect is twofold, first VGC villas are almost impossible to book, you need to own there if you plan on staying there w/ any frequency which drives demand. Second, there are far fewer owners of VGC, thus there’s lower potential supply of contracts for sale. A couple of days ago when I looked at the 12 DVC resale brokers there were 4 VGC contracts for sale, today there’s 1 VGC contract for sale.
Although I’m a native Californian, I’m not interested in buying either VGC or VDH, but I get why the prices are higher, it’s the same reason BC has always been higher than BWVs on the resale market.
Whether this particular $335 VGC contract will sell at that price . I’ll be an interested bystander watching the sales prices on VGC resales & the direct sales numbers on VDH.

Have California home prices plummeted that much in the last year? In September 2022 it was Hawaii #1, California #2, DC #3, Colorado, Massachusetts

 

[DVChris]

Have California home prices plummeted that much in the last year? In September 2022 it was Hawaii #1, California #2, DC #3, Colorado, Massachusetts

We live in SoCal and our SFH value has held steady in the last 12 months. The VGC rollercoaster was due to VDH.

 

[longboard55]

The cheapest room in the California Grand summer season with taxes and parking is well over $1000 a night. $335 a point is still a bargain, and VDH will sell like crazy at $230. Note it. And I really could care less about a small TOT tax, all cities have them now

 

[longboard55]

We live in SoCal and our SFH value has held steady in the last 12 months. The VGC rollercoaster was due to VDH.

The problem with home prices is with the 2 1/2% mortgage a few years ago, plus with prop 13 taxes, very few people sell, so there is very limited supply. If a house goes on the market it is multiple offers in a week. There is just not much to buy.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

The problem with home prices is with the 2 1/2% mortgage a few years ago, plus with prop 13 taxes, very few people sell, so there is very limited supply. If a house goes on the market it is multiple offers in a week. There is just not much to buy.

It’s the same here in Hawaii. Median single family house is back over a million and only down 5% from last year. Inventory is down like 50%. No one wants to sell. Especially not I when my mortgage rate is 2%. Why would I trade that for 6% for a lesser house?

 

[AC168]

You need a lot of job loses before a meaningful home price correction happens around Disneyland.

 

[NVDISFamily]

Disney can do things we never anticipated to drive erratic market trends. VGF resale prices plunged from the $190’s after they decided to turn BPK into 200 studios. VGF no longer became the boutique exclusive resort that ruined it for existing owners. No one saw the TOT at VDH that drove a buying frenzy for VGC resale. I hate to suggest this but what if Disney were to implement the same ToT and no parking at VGC. or if they convert a whole new wing into 200 more studios like the did at VGF. My point is, we are at the mercy of things beyond our control and the values of our existing contracts can change very quickly.

I think villas at Pixar Pier is more likely before another Grand Cal wing becomes a DVC offering but I’d welcome either. My hope is to hold until 2060. If the soul and ticker are still willing I’d consider buying back in for the grandkids but I would have to be a very healthy upper 70 year old

More options for DVC sound like a win to me but yes there will be ups and downs.

 

[New Mouse]

If anyone is curious, Disney is making straight up offers to buy Grand Cal back around 150 a point....lol