Very Interesting DVC Rumors

From a new member, I'm wondering, exactly, what you're thinking of when you say "existing problems and concerns of current members".

Oh, I could put together a pretty good list of items off the top of my head:

* Growing number of untrained Member Services CMs who mishandle reservations or give callers erroneous information.

* Ongoing problems with member website (I used to be a big defender of the website given that 4 years ago we didn't even have unique member IDs. However development has stalled in recent years and I'm really tired of hearing how people can't get on--that's a development issue not user error.)

* Changes to the waitlist procedure (now auto-confirm only) which are nothing more than a cost saving measure by DVC.

* Flawed waitlist room assignment process that has rooms magically appearing in inventory when guests call.

* Stagnating discount program--the last noteworthy discount was the AP discount introduced in January '05...and that's not even a benefit that all members can use. It's also a discount that continues to lose value since AP prices are rising while the discount amount remains unchanged.

* Continued inconsistencies in room assignment procedures. Within the last year DVC ran a story in one of their newsletters describing the "Room Ready" system and claiming that it's the process used at all DVC resorts, yet many resorts continue to pre-assign rooms. (BTW, it used to be that rooms were assigned based upon the date the reservation was made, such that those booking 11 mos out would have first crack at getting their requests met. I suspect there are a lot of people still upset that this policy was eliminated.)

* Little interest on DVC's part in creating additional views / room categories at existing resorts. By the time Kidani Village is open, AKV will have at least 6 different room categories. Why do OKW, BCV, VWL and SSR have just ONE category each? It would all be computerized and (IMO) would greatly enhance member satisfaction, yet requests to make changes are met with ambivalence by DVC.

* No movement on things like adding HDTVs to existing guests rooms and coffee tables to Studio rooms that lack them (people have been asking about these at annual meetings at least back to '03 and DVC always says "we're working on it.")

* Elimination of monthly DVC newsletter.

* Embarassing communications with members regarding AKV sales start-up (not least of which is the tapestry FUBAR.)

* I also think the quality / frequency with which DVC solicits members for add-on sales or to recruit other individuals as members borders on embarassing. Last Fall many were up-in-arms over a mailer that DVC sent to all members. It was a package sent via Fed Ex that contained a box about 10" x 8" x 2". What was in the box? A set of about a dozen postcards. That's it--just postcards! It was yet another "send these off to your friends and spread the word about DVC" thing. Granted that's just a DVC sales expense with no impact on member dues, but it's disappointing to think that energies (and money) are being expended on things like that and not projects that are of greater value to members.

Now that you're a member, expect to get something in the mail at least 3-4 times per year either soliciting you to add more points and/or remining you to get your friends to buy in!

Generally speaking, it's sad to see that most of what DVC has to promote these days has a sales focus--AKV model rooms, new Chicago sales center, member parties outside Epcot (there's a line item in our dues for funding member events--can't we just have fun for once???), weekly member meetings at Atlantic Dance Hall...even things like the member cruises hit you pretty hard for additional point sales.

Add all of this to the recent price changes at WDW (DDP changes, ticket price hikes, new room rates, etc.) and I don't blame people for their ambivalence. IMO, the funk currently impacting many long-time Disney fans right now is, in many ways, worse than post-9/11 when Disney closed hotels, dramatically cut-back park hours, eliminated EMH, reduced park maintenance, and so on.
 
Very interesting! popcorn::

It will be exciting to see what happens with these rumors. Depending on the price, I could definitely be convinced to pay to add years to my OKW (we almost considered SSR or AKV just for the extra years).

I'm also chomping at the bit to hear news about GCV...

:banana:

It would be very interesting to see how any extension of the current 2042 resorts would play on the overall cost to purchase these resort contracts thru Disney. Yes, a one time discounted price to extend is one thing, but this would obviously have to increase the current price per point for new contracts. Thus, driving up these prices up will not give the newer resorts any more sales/resales advantage as far as time is concerned.
 
I'm hoping for the GC announcement in Oct. The three building permits are sounding promising!

Me too! And there are two reasons I think that GCV will be announced this year:

1) A permit to renovate the DVC "mock-up" unit in Disneyland has already been submitted AND was submitted by the same architect as the first permit for the Grand Californian Hotel expansion. If they weren't going to announce this year, there would be no reason to pull the permit for the mock-up unit so early.

2) Two large new timeshares are going to be opening up in Anaheim next year which are within walking distance of Disneyland. I'm pretty sure Disney is not going to want to be the last to arrive at the "Timeshare party".

Well, and there's reason #3 too- I really, really want it to happen!
 
I think, if you REALLY think about it, that while you can HOPE for $5 to $10 per point, you can't realistically expect the number to be that small. For a 250 point contract, you'd be talking between 1250 and 2500 for 15 years of extra points, or $166 per year (less than $1 per point per year). I just can't see Disney going anywhere CLOSE to that low. You'd be paying a "lower" room rate than you are right now....

hey I paid much less. So if it isn't between $2 and $10 per point. Simply won't buy it.

this is an addition to members who are mostly going to be dead or at least in their 70's in 2042. (okay I few of you might in the 60's)

Disney has to made us want it. Sorry at the prices you are talking about I would rather put another $70 with it and go with CRV. It will be a new resort not 15 years old already.

as I say I paid $14062.50 for 49 years (2042-1993) that comes out to $286.98 so per point $1.15. as I say between $2 and $10 per point is a fair price for me.

So what is a fair price to me - might not be to you.
 


The speculation is they'll wait and see how OKW goes, and then make decisions on those resorts, case by case.

So, in essence: Who knows?

The only reason I can see Disney doing it a bit different is that those facilities are all attached to a hotel...OKW obviously is not. So they MAY weigh the value of putting the DVC rooms into hotel service vs offering an extension to owners...or rather, weigh that factor a bit more heavily than with OKW.

I think if OKW does it, and it's successful, that the other '42 resorts will follow. But we'll see.

I can still remember one of the parts of the sales pitch: "And one of the reasons that Disney is only putting a 50 year limit on these contracts is because they want to leave the option open about what to do with the buildings after that. After all, other timeshare places often saddle their owners with larger debt as the buildings age and it cost more to maintain them. At least with Disney Vacation Club, you will never have to worry about that."

So, just because they may extend the contract some years out, it won't potentially greatly increase maintenance costs?

Just a curious observation . . .
 
So what happens to BW, BC and VWL?

Don't forget VB & HH! (Though I know there's a chance even if they did the other ones, these would be left out due to not being on property. I can still hope though!)

I hope if they do, it's not priced outrageous! I think my DM&D only paid in the high $60s for points and our VB points weren't too much more than that I think! Paying $35.00 per point for an upgrade would be a little much.
 
I think there is also one overlooked reason for the possible extension (unless I missed it earlier in the thread):

What would Disney do with all those rooms dumped in their lap all at once? I doubt they could fill OKW, BWV, VWL, and BCV on day one, especially with the rates that a 2br or GV would command.
VB and HH are a whole 'nother ballgame.
In the meantime, maintenance would still need to be done.

Perhaps they will only extend one resort at a time, as to stagger the end dates. :smokin:

MG
 


Just Wondering as to the OPs original blurb about owners contacting DVC re a buyback, with 60% accepting offer...

anyone know the "magic number" DVC offers; probably hush-hush/varies by resort, yada, yada...

my guess-timate would be akin to other TS resale offers 50% or $50 to $60 pp, depending on resort:confused3
 
Just Wondering as to the OPs original blurb about owners contacting DVC re a buyback, with 60% accepting offer...

anyone know the "magic number" DVC offers; probably hush-hush/varies by resort, yada, yada...

my guess-timate would be akin to other TS resale offers 50% or $50 to $60 pp, depending on resort:confused3
A couple of people have posted here about this. The price DVC offered for BCV contracts was $50-$55/pt for BCV. Someone asked them about an HHI contract and DVC said they weren't interested in buying it back.
 
Just my $.02, but if this does come to pass I think the driving force behind it is simply DVC's need to have something to sell!

IIRC, the converted rooms at AKV only represent about 100 units. Over the past 4 years, DVC has been selling 100 units at SSR about every 6 months. Assuming the sales pace has been about the same and considering that SSR and AKV are selling simultaneously, I think it's very likely that both SSR and the Jambo House units at AKV will be gone by sometime this winter. (Even if the points aren't totally gone by then, there will be certain Use Years that are unavailable.)

That sort of timeline leaves DVC about a year before Kidani Village opens with nothing to sell. Even if they can legally start selling points at Kidani, they will be trying to sell a product that buyers cannot use for a year.

So, it appears they may fill the void with 50-year contracts at OKW. The one-time extension will enable DVC to earn some money off of those who choose to extend their contract, while at the same time allowing DVC to extend the contracts they hold at OKW. While the number of points is unknown, DVC could easily stockpile enough points to bridge the gap between SSK/Jambo and Kidani--maybe 3-6 months' worth of sales. Then, if the rumor mill is to be believed, the Grand Californian and Contemporary may follow in a few months or years.

Whether extensions are offered at BCV, BWV or VWL may depend largely on similar needs in the coming years. If those resorts are to remain standing after 2042, I personally think it would be more beneficial to DVC to reclaim the points then and sell new 50-year contracts. Of course, that assumes that the folks in charge at Disney are actually looking at the big picture as opposed to padding their own resumes.

HHI and Vero would also be candidates. DVC is probably sitting on a fair amount of points at those resorts, although I'm not sure if they would find it worth their while to put time and money into promoting sales there again given how long they took to sell in the first place. Extending contracts for another 15 years means a commitment to leaving those resorts open past 2042. If only a tiny percentage of current owners agree to the extension, Disney will inherit a big expense in 2042 and have to spend more money to market the points again.
 
A couple of people have posted here about this. The price DVC offered for BCV contracts was $50-$55/pt for BCV. Someone asked them about an HHI contract and DVC said they weren't interested in buying it back.

thanks for posting, must've missed that info; wonder where the other resorts would fall as to price and interest.
 
A couple of people have posted here about this. The price DVC offered for BCV contracts was $50-$55/pt for BCV. Someone asked them about an HHI contract and DVC said they weren't interested in buying it back.

and on the resale market BCV is in the high $90's.

so you got to wonder if Disney was really interested in buy back.
 
What would Disney do with all those rooms dumped in their lap all at once? I doubt they could fill OKW, BWV, VWL, and BCV on day one, especially with the rates that a 2br or GV would command.
VB and HH are a whole 'nother ballgame.
In the meantime, maintenance would still need to be done.

Perhaps they will only extend one resort at a time, as to stagger the end dates. :smokin:

MG

Or they kept BWV, VWL and BCV as part of BWI, WL and BC.

disney definitely needs more suites. DVC resorts would furnish them the suites that need - at basically not alot of extra costs.

I would think they would sell off VB & HH to another company.
 
I did a survey from DVC about this around a year ago. It had all that "scenario" "price" how much is "too much" , how much was "jump on", how much for "fair", etc. They mentioned all the earlier DVC's so maybe they are testing the OKW thing and then taking it form there for the others?
 
Oh, I could put together a pretty good list of items off the top of my head:

.........................
....................etc
.......................

Sounds like your DVC is a lot worse than mine. Maybe you should sell.

I would have to decide whether I want to be 82 or 97 when the points expire. I think after I'm 82 I'll just rent points until I expire.

I would choose extension only if I thought it would significantly increase resale potential for the near future.
 
hey I paid much less. So if it isn't between $2 and $10 per point. Simply won't buy it.

this is an addition to members who are mostly going to be dead or at least in their 70's in 2042. (okay I few of you might in the 60's)

Disney has to made us want it. Sorry at the prices you are talking about I would rather put another $70 with it and go with CRV. It will be a new resort not 15 years old already.

as I say I paid $14062.50 for 49 years (2042-1993) that comes out to $286.98 so per point $1.15. as I say between $2 and $10 per point is a fair price for me.

So what is a fair price to me - might not be to you.

To put that in context, your 14062.50, in 2007 dollars, works out to be 19494.07 (because you're not buyin at '93 prices, or with '93 dollars). That's 397.83 per year, or 1.59 per point per year. At that price, you're looking at 23.85 per point.

Even at your '93 deflated price of 1.15, you'd be looking at about $17 per point per year for the extra 15 years.

I'm just saying....just because you think your range is "fair"...in other words, it's what YOU'RE willing to spend....doesn't mean it's realistic. I mean...maybe, in the end, that's what Disney will do. But.....I just don't see it happening. As I've said...we'll have to wait and see. I hope you're right, actually.....I love seeing people happy because they get what they want. But I'd steel yourself to see a number much closer to the one I guessed at than a lowball figure.
 
They're gonna need $25 a point just to buy enough bleach to kill the mildew that's accumulating in the bathrooms. I can't imagine what it's going to look like in 2042, let alone 2057. :scared1:

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE my OKW and will probably take them up on this offer. But, they REALLY need to do some freshening up - and the resort isn't even that old, yet!
 
From a new member, I'm wondering, exactly, what you're thinking of when you say "existing problems and concerns of current members".

Anything specific you'd be willing to share?

I think TJ covered a good many concerns. Others include a lack of the quality of service one gets at a deluxe compared to DVC. It is not the same and I think it should be.

I think DVC needs to intervene of the behalf of members and get the valet parking situation straightened out. If free valet parking at DVC resorts is truly a member perk, I should not be hassled about it by the valet and charged and then have to spend my time straightening it out.

I also think DVC resorts are not held to the same quality of maintenance that Deluxe is. If you stay at the Yacht Club then the BCV you will definitely see a difference.

There once was a time where you could contact Member Services with a complaint and you felt they really cared about your imput and changes would be made, now I feel like you get the standard PC correct email and that is about it.

I just feel like the emphasis of members being satisfied and selling DVC for DVC has shifted to DVC selling DVC and the heck with the existing membership.
 
They're gonna need $25 a point just to buy enough bleach to kill the mildew that's accumulating in the bathrooms. I can't imagine what it's going to look like in 2042, let alone 2057. :scared1:

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE my OKW and will probably take them up on this offer. But, they REALLY need to do some freshening up - and the resort isn't even that old, yet!

:rotfl2:
 
I think Disney will set price based on what they think they can get - not on any sort of pricing exercise. But, just for fun, a little finance geekery...

Right now, Disney is charging $96 per point for a 50-year resort. If we assume that each year of points is equally valuable, that's $1.92 per year. But I think most people would not view each year as being equally valuable. When we pay now for something we'll get in the future, there's usually an interest discount. Plus, because we don't know what the future holds (maybe the resort will get run-down, maybe we won't want to stay there, etc.) we should put in some sort of uncertainty discount. But those two have to be offset somewhat with inflation since rooms in the future will cost more.

There's no one right discount factor - each person would have to decide what they think is appropriate. But, if you were willing to pay $XX for a point that you could use today, what would you be willing to pay for a point you could use a year from now? Two years from now? 10 years from now, etc.

Me? I'm going to pick 5%. So if I were to pay $96 for 50-years worth of points, I would value the first year at $5.01 a point. The second year at $4.77 a point... until we get to the 50th year that I would value of $0.46. Add up those 50 years, and if I've done my math right, that adds up to $96.

Once we've priced that out, we can split out the value of the last 15 years. Using my rate of 5%, those final 15 years are worth $9.90.

Here's the value at various interest rates:

0%: $28.80
1%: $23.97
3%: $15.83
5%: $9.90
7%: $5.93
 

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