VDH Unit and Sales Tracker

[DonMacGregor]

It's almost certain my number is not exactly right, but I feel pretty good that I'm close. Despite being lower than DVC News, I think my May number (147,069) is likely a little high, maybe by 20-30 points or so in May.

It's a sad state we find ourselves in when someone feels like a .015% margin of error is acceptable...

 

[NorCalFanatic]

We bought on the second day as well but ours won't close until August after our final credit payment is received. I asked for the longest payment plan allowable

Same here. We bought 500+ and spread it out over several months. Should close next month.

 

[Lexxiefern]

I just purchased 75 and it says its .1509% of unit 2A. Have we seen 2A yet?

 

[ehh]

I just purchased 75 and it says its .1509% of unit 2A. Have we seen 2A yet?

We have not! And it confirms they declared more inventory, which was suspected based on mass waitlist fulfillment and a 33pg contract showing up on OCRW. I really should find my checkbook so I can mail OCRW a check so they can mail me that contract back.

I'm curious if your Collateral Docs (https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/collateral-docs) have a different/updated Public Offering Statement in them that includes the Condo Plan that includes Phase 2 details.

Would you be able to right-click and provide the link to your "The Villas at Disneyland Hotel Public Offering Statement" on the Collateral Docs page above (will need to sign in to your DVC account)? The link/PDF is not unique to you and is no way usable to identify you, but I am curious if there's an updated revision posted for those that have a Phase 2 Unit.

 

[Lexxiefern]

Not sure if this right

https://cdn1.parksmedia.wdprapps.disney.com/media/dvc/en/collateral-docs/MS_POS_Rev_05_02_2023.pdf

 

[ehh]

Not sure if this right

https://cdn1.parksmedia.wdprapps.disney.com/media/dvc/en/collateral-docs/MS_POS_Rev_05_02_2023.pdf

Looks like that's the multi-site POS. There should be one specific to VDH as well.

I did go through all possible date combos for the name based on my VDH POS (also date 5/2/23), and didn't find anything. But maybe there's another tweak to the name. Or, more likely, they don't update it

 

[Sandisw]

Looks like that's the multi-site POS. There should be one specific to VDH as well.

I did go through all possible date combos for the name based on my VDH POS (also date 5/2/23), and didn't find anything. But maybe there's another tweak to the name. Or, more likely, they don't update it

I don't think they update the POS when new things are declared. But, my VGF POS before BPK does have all the phases in the drawings in it. Not sure if VDH has that or not.

 

[ehh]

I don't think they update the POS when new things are declared. But, my VGF POS before BPK does have all the phases in the drawings in it. Not sure if VDH has that or not.

Just Phase 1 is what I see on my Collateral Docs page: https://cdn1.parksmedia.wdprapps.di..._Public_Offering_Statement_Rev_05_02_2023.pdf. (Condo Plan starts page 95)

The floors of Phase 1 overlap with some other Phases, so we get little peeks at those future declarations, but not the full plan.

 

[Sandisw]

Just Phase 1 is what I see on my Collateral Docs page: https://cdn1.parksmedia.wdprapps.di..._Public_Offering_Statement_Rev_05_02_2023.pdf. (Condo Plan starts page 95)

The floors of Phase 1 overlap with some other Phases, so we get little peeks at those future declarations, but not the full plan.

Okay. I can’t say that the phases match the way things were declared since I haven’t studied it close enough.

Maybe they didn’t do it the same way with VDH.

 

[ehh]

Weekly Update!

Points recorded last week (6/10 - 6/16): ~68k points.
Total points recorded to date: ~235k points.

Last week was the highest week of all weeks so far! Previous high was ~60k in week 2. Based on typical recording delays this included the initial surge of sales from New Member Sales that began on 5/30. I have a New Member friend who bought on 5/30 and whose contract was included in last week's recorded deeds.

It's likely these recording dates somewhat aligned with purchases during the week of 5/29. This also means that there are likely some June sales mixed into the 235k to date, but some May delayed closings are also not yet recorded. I'd say this 235k is a ballpark figure for sales in June 2023, but somewhat likely an undercount.

The distribution of contracts skewed toward larger contacts than earlier dates, breakdown below. I suspect new members have less information and/or inclination to split purchases into smaller contracts.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded last week:

• 476 contracts recorded, also a new high
  • 163x 150pt contracts
  • 63x 50pt contracts
  • 50x 200pt contracts
  • 42x 100pt contracts
  • 42x 75pt contracts
  • 23x 175pt contracts
  • 93x other contracts
• 143.0pt average contract size last week
  • Week one was 124.6pt average
  • Week two was 130.9pt average
  • Week three was 132.5pt average
  • Week four was 108.1pt average
• 700pt is largest contract
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 400pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (6x)
• Unit 1F was assigned the most (16.9k, 2nd most was 1G at 13.5k)

Unit/date breakdown:

"Unk[nown]" unit is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

 

[ehh]

Weekly Update!

Points recorded last week (6/17 - 6/23): ~44.5k points.
Total points recorded to date: ~280k points.

Last week was, based on VDH's limited history, a slightly below average week (~47k was average prior to last week). Though I suspect DVC would be thrilled if it were the longterm average--at this rate VDH would sell out in 15-16 more months. Or maybe they'd be resentful that they didn't price VDH higher.

It was also the first week where we saw a unit from Phase 2 appear in the deeds: Unit 2A. I'm in the process sourcing the documents from OCRW that would detail the Phase 2 expansion, but I suspect it will be weeks until I'm able to post a complete breakdown of Phase 2.

Average contract size continues to get larger, with last week up to 146.4pts/deed. I suspect new members have less information and/or inclination to split purchases into smaller contracts.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded last week:

• 304 contracts recorded, the 2nd lowest week yet
  • 105x 150pt contracts
  • 42x 200pt contracts
  • 39x 50pt contracts
  • 39x 75pt contracts
  • 20x 100pt contracts
  • 14x 250pt contracts
  • 45x other contracts
• 146.6pt average contract size last week
  • Week one was 124.6pt average
  • Week two was 130.9pt average
  • Week three was 132.5pt average
  • Week four was 108.1pt average
  • Week five was 143.0pt averge
• 550pt is largest contract
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 350pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (4x)
• Unit 1G was assigned the most (15.3k, 2nd most was 1F at 11.8k)

Unit/date breakdown:

"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

 

[emchen]

Requesting bar graph of weekly point sales. Love the narratives! Bar graphs will add a different level of appreciation achievable by a glance.

Keep up the great work!

 

[ehh]

Requesting bar graph of weekly point sales. Love the narratives! Bar graphs will add a different level of appreciation achievable by a glance.

Keep up the great work!

6 weeks in? I think that's reasonable.


Note: the dates are end-of-week dates

 

[HIRyeDVC]

6 weeks in? I think that's reasonable.

View attachment 771408
Note: the dates are end-of-week dates

What happened on June 10th? Sales dipped from 43k to 7k then goes up to 68k? otherwise, this is fascinating. Sales appear to be very strong

 

[ehh]

What happened on June 10th? Sales dipped from 43k to 7k then goes up to 68k? otherwise, this is fascinating. Sales appear to be very strong

OCRW didn't record any DVC contracts for 3 days that week despite no US/Cali holiday. And the 2 days they did have contracts with both very low volume and low points/contract. It was bizarre.

One theory was someone in Disney Vacation Development was on vacation. It also lined up with purchases made after 5/16 (initial booking window) but before 5/30 (new members), so sales might have just been low ~2 weeks prior to those recording dates.

 

[upritbass]

Don't confuse 'points recorded' with 'points sold' -- they aren't the same thing. I doubt that even DVC knows exactly how many points have been sold so far. The staff is too busy working through the backlog of paperwork to worry about it.

I hope they open more Garden View rooms before our May trip now that Phase 2 is starting to sell.

 

[crvetter]

Don't confuse 'points recorded' with 'points sold' -- they aren't the same thing. I doubt that even DVC knows exactly how many points have been sold so far. The staff is too busy working through the backlog of paperwork to worry about it.

I hope they open more Garden View rooms before our May trip now that Phase 2 is starting to sell.

They are very close to call it a day. Just that 'points recorded' as a proxy is a delayed measure of 'points sold'. When transferring real estate you want the deed recorded so there is no legal challenges. So I don't think there is a huge backlog leading to a mis-estimate here. They also are recording faster in California than Florida (for some reason in Florida it is 30 days to be considered "closed")

Edit: I'd assume most people are keeping the title insurance, and the insurance company selling the title insurance would 100% require the deed to be recorded in a timely manner (usually most are within 30 days).

 

[Canchaser143]

I just purchased 75 and it says its .1509% of unit 2A. Have we seen 2A yet?

Hello fellow 2A neighbor!!!

 

[Kidguile]

Bought 1st week of May but made final payments today so will be part of the closing stats this month

 

[ehh]

Weekly and Monthly Update! June 30th was both the last day of the month and last day of week, so this post has double the fun!

Total points recorded to date: ~309k points.
Points recorded in June: ~162k points.

June outpaced May in recorded points with 162k vs. 147k. However, contracts were only recorded in May starting May 15 while June was a full month. June did have some very high-volume dates, with 6/12 being the 2nd highest points recorded date so far (22.7k, highest was 23.4k on 5/30). Near the end of the month we saw the daily points recording settling into a ~3-4k/day rate, which is down from earlier peaks but still pretty good (works out to 60-80k/month as contracts are only recorded on weekdays).

June also saw a Unit from Phase 2 included in the deeds, confirming that Phase 2 was declared. I'm still working to get the paperwork from OCRW to analyze what's in Phase 2.

June actually had fewer deeds recorded than May, 1,147 vs. 1,133, despite the higher points total. Recent week have seen a strong shift toward a higher average contract size. Sales opened to new members starting 5/30 and new members must buy at least 100 points (vs. 50 for existing members) and I suspect new members also have less information and/or inclination to split purchases into smaller contracts.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in June:

• 1,133 contracts recorded
  • 368x 150pt contracts (317 in May)
  • 168x 50pt contracts (233 in May)
  • 125x 200pt contracts (96 in May)
  • 109x 75pt contracts (100 in May)
  • 90x 100pt contracts (124 in May)
  • 48x 175pt contracts (43 in May)
  • 47x 250pt contracts (38 in May)
  • 31x 300pt contracts (25 in May)
  • 147x other contracts (171 in May)
• 142.8pt average contract size last week
  • May had an average of 128.2pt
• 700pt is largest contract in June
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (4x)
• Unit 1G was assigned the most (40.6k, 2nd most was 1F at 39.9k)

Points recorded by date:

"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

Points recorded by month:

---

Points recorded last week (6/24 - 6/30): ~29k points.
Last week was, based on VDH's limited history, a very below average week (~47k was average prior to last week). Though I suspect DVC would be happy if it were the longterm average--at this rate VDH would sell ~120k points per month and sell out in ~24 more months.

Average contract size continues to get larger, with last week up to 150.4pts/deed. This could be a discussion all unto itself, or I think it's interesting enough to be.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded last week:

• 193 contracts recorded, the 2nd lowest week yet
  • 62x 150pt contracts
  • 29x 50pt contracts
  • 20x 200pt contracts
  • 14x 75pt contracts
  • 13x 100pt contracts
  • 13x 250pt contracts
  • 42x other contracts
• 150.4pt average contract size last week
  • Week one was 124.6pt average
  • Week two was 130.9pt average
  • Week three was 132.5pt average
  • Week four was 108.1pt average
  • Week five was 143.0pt average
  • Week six was 146.6pt average
• 653pt is largest contract
  • I believe this to be a 2BR Favorite Week for W51 or W52
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 320pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 1Gwas assigned the most (11.7k, 2nd most was 1F at 7.3k)
  • No Units have approached selling out, as far as I can tell

Unit/date breakdown:

"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.