VDH Unit and Sales Tracker

[ehh]

Total recorded points in May 2023: ~147k points.

As a reminder, this is likely a pretty significant undercount of the points sold in May. But we don't know how much and I'm not going to guess. Generally, based on what others have posted, contracts are recorded about 2 weeks after 'purchasing', but may take longer depending on how it's being paid for. First contracts were recorded 5/15 and sales started 5/2, further supporting the 'about 2 weeks' timeline.

Maybe we'll have a fuzzy picture of points sold in May in mid-June. Maybe.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in May 2023:

• 1,147 contracts recorded
  • 317x 150pt contracts (incentive tiers in action!)
  • 233x 50pt contracts
  • 124x 100pt contracts
  • 100x 75pt contracts
  • 96x 200pt contracts
  • 277x other contracts
• 128.2pt average contract size in May:
  • Week one was 124.6pt average
  • Week two was 130.9pt average
  • Week three is 130.0pt average so far
• 800pt is largest contract
• 30pt is smallest contract
• 700pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 1H and Unit 1C have been assigned the most (both ~28.8k points)
• No Units appear to have sold out

Unit/date breakdown:


"Unk[nown]" unit is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

It's not clear if things are slowing down or not in terms of contracts/points being recorded, partially because of the disruption from the holiday weekend causing the biggest recording date yet on 5/30. It's likely we're just starting to get to the purchases after initial booking window but before initial sales to new members, which would likely show some sign of slowing down.

My plan going forward: I plan to do summary posts like this every month, update posts that are a lighter version of this every week, and will also update the high-level stats on Post 2 of this thread most days. Enjoy!

 

[Newmom1]

200 points —1G—0.2492%

 

[sndral]

147,000 points sold/recorded for VDH in the first month is impressive! VGF2 opened sales just over a year ago on 3/3/22 & for that first month there were 115,000 points recorded as sold. https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-sales-resume-direct-sales-jump-in-march-2022

 

[DonMacGregor]

147,000 points sold/recorded for VDH in the first month is impressive! VGF2 opened sales just over a year ago on 3/3/22 & for that first month there were 115,000 points recorded as sold. https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-sales-resume-direct-sales-jump-in-march-2022

And, as we were discussing the other day and as @ehh mentions in the post, that is likely a significant undercount, both due to the time it takes for Orange County to process and record the new deeds, and the number of people who have delayed closings due to credit card payments/multiple installments.

 

[sndral]

And, as we were discussing the other day and as @ehh mentions in the post, that is likely a significant undercount, both due to the time it takes for Orange County to process and record the new deeds, and the number of people who have delayed closings due to credit card payments/multiple installments.

Yes, but presumably a similar number of folks delayed closings due to multiple installments a year ago, so that should be roughly the same, as for how fast the OC east v. west recorders offices are, that could indeed make a big difference.
Next month‘s numbers should capture a full month’s data, & I expect based on month 1’s numbers that VDH‘s will be impressive. Here’s a link to month 2 of VGF2’s numbers https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-help-drive-strong-direct-sales-in-april-2022

 

[ehh]

As promised, a weekly update!

Total recorded points last week (5/29 - 6/2): ~43k points.

This is down from ~57k from the first week of recording and ~60k from the 2nd week of recording. It's unclear how much of the decline was due to the holiday during the recording week, Tuesday was the single highest recording date so far but the last 3 days of the week were 3 of the lowest 4 recording days so far.

It's likely these recording dates somewhat aligned with purchases during the week of 5/15, most of which was after the early booking window.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded last week:

• 325 contracts recorded
  • 88x 150pt contracts (incentive tiers in action!)
  • 66x 50pt contracts
  • 31x 200pt contracts
  • 30x 100pt contracts
  • 25x 75pt contracts
  • 85x other contracts
• 132.5pt average contract size last week
  • Week one was 124.6pt average
  • Week two was 130.9pt average
• 350pt is largest contract
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 350pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 1D was assigned the most, by far (11.2k, 2nd most was 1F at 7.1k)

Unit/date breakdown:

"Unk[nown]" unit is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

 

[ehh]

Well this is odd, 2 weekdays in a row and no Disney deeds recorded in OCRW

OCRW is recording other deeds (including grant deeds), just none from Disney/DVC/DVD showing up.

 

[floribr1]

Well this is odd, 2 weekdays in a row and no Disney deeds recorded in OCRW

OCRW is recording other deeds (including grant deeds), just none from Disney/DVC/DVD showing up.

My guess is that this is a factor of when DVD is delivering the deeds to OCRW. Someone at DVD might be out of the office (vacation, etc.) and a will dump a bunch of deeds off at the OCRW later this week, Monday, etc.?

 

[ehh]

Okay, they're back to recording DVC contracts on OCRW. Not a large batch of deeds though, just 30 VDH recorded yesterday and 2 VGC (!) as well. VGC were 50 and 160 points. VDH averaged just 64pts per contract, roughly half the norm.

Post 2 updated. It looks like sales have fallen off a cliff, which is semi-plausible as we're likely past pre-booking sales period, but it's more extreme than I would have expected. I think the vacation theory is more likely

 

[Wedgeout]

Our May 22 contract deed has shown up today recorded on June 8. (Was single purchase date payment).

 

[NowISeeYou]

I just bought last week and I got 1G

 

[ehh]

Weekly Update!

Points recorded last week (6/3 - 6/9): ~7k points.
Total points recorded: ~167k points.

This is a significant drop from earlier weeks, which were all 43k - 60k. It's important to note that no DVC contracts were recorded in OCRW for 3 weekdays, 6/5 - 6/7, for an unknown reason (speculative reasons: slow sales, vacation, submission issues, etc.). 6/8 was the lowest recording date so far, at 1.9k points. 6/9 was a little better, at 5.1k, just the 3rd lowest date so far. The average points per contract was also down significantly, but only on 6/8. As for why? Your guess is as good as mine.

It's likely these recording dates somewhat aligned with purchases during the week of 5/22.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded last week:

• 65 contracts recorded, a new low
  • 24x 50pt contracts
  • 12x 150pt contracts
  • 8x 100pt contracts
  • 5x 60pt contracts
  • 4x 75pt contracts
  • 12x other contracts
• 108.1pt average contract size last week
  • Week one was 124.6pt average
  • Week two was 130.9pt average
  • Week three was 132.5pt average
• 600pt is largest contract
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 200pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 1D was assigned the most (2.1k, 2nd most was 1F at 1.9k)
• Unit 1G was recorded for the first time!

Unit/date breakdown:

"Unk[nown]" unit is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

 

[emchen]

We bought three contracts at 50pts per contract so far (opting for Magical Beginnings):
50 -- 1G -- 0.0623 -- 06/09/23 -- June
50 -- 1H -- 0.0885 -- 06/09/23 -- June
50 -- 1A -- 0.1006 -- 06/09/23 -- June

Three more to come soon without MB.

 

[ehh]

We bought three contracts at 50pts per contract so far (opting for Magical Beginnings):
50 -- 1G -- 0.0623 -- 06/09/23 -- June
50 -- 1H -- 0.0885 -- 06/09/23 -- June
50 -- 1A -- 0.1006 -- 06/09/23 -- June

Three more to come soon without MB.

1A and 1G! So much for that "they're not going to sell 1A" theory.

Based on recorded deeds, they haven't come close to selling out any Unit yet, so it's interesting to see them expand to 1G and 1A recently.

EDIT: also, 6/12 was the largest day ever for deeds recorded.

 

[emchen]

1A and 1G! So much for that "they're not going to sell 1A" theory.

Based on recorded deeds, they haven't come close to selling out any Unit yet, so it's interesting to see them expand to 1G and 1A recently.

EDIT: also, 6/12 was the largest day ever for deeds recorded.

You gonna keep us in the dark? ….how many deeds were recorded on 6/12??

 

[ehh]

You gonna keep us in the dark? ….how many deeds were recorded on 6/12??

Was gonna wait for the weekly update, but 6/12 (which posted on OCRW on 6/13), had 22,768 points across 166 deeds. There were also 2 VGC deeds.

And I seemed to have missed 5/30 when looking at earlier dates, 6/12 was actually 2nd highest ever behind 5/30 (23,435 across 184 deeds).

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

We purchased our add-on points the second day sales were open, but due to some paperwork errors we're just now closing. Maybe there were similar issues on other contracts.

 

[The_MT]

We purchased our add-on points the second day sales were open, but due to some paperwork errors we're just now closing. Maybe there were similar issues on other contracts.

We bought on the second day as well but ours won't close until August after our final credit payment is received. I asked for the longest payment plan allowable

 

[DonMacGregor]

Total recorded points in May 2023: ~147k points.

As a reminder, this is likely a pretty significant undercount of the points sold in May. But we don't know how much and I'm not going to guess. Generally, based on what others have posted, contracts are recorded about 2 weeks after 'purchasing', but may take longer depending on how it's being paid for. First contracts were recorded 5/15 and sales started 5/2, further supporting the 'about 2 weeks' timeline.

Maybe we'll have a fuzzy picture of points sold in May in mid-June. Maybe.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in May 2023:

• 1,147 contracts recorded
  • 317x 150pt contracts (incentive tiers in action!)
  • 233x 50pt contracts
  • 124x 100pt contracts
  • 100x 75pt contracts
  • 96x 200pt contracts
  • 277x other contracts
• 128.2pt average contract size in May:
  • Week one was 124.6pt average
  • Week two was 130.9pt average
  • Week three is 130.0pt average so far
• 800pt is largest contract
• 30pt is smallest contract
• 700pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 1H and Unit 1C have been assigned the most (both ~28.8k points)
• No Units appear to have sold out

Unit/date breakdown:
View attachment 764694

Walt Disney World DVC Direct Sales Creep Upward in May 2023


You're off by 219 points. Shoddy work, my friend...LOL

 

[ehh]

Walt Disney World DVC Direct Sales Creep Upward in May 2023

View attachment 767982
You're off by 219 points. Shoddy work, my friend...LOL

Au contraire! There's a bunch of tax values that convert to the 'wrong' amount if using the standard $12.65 to 50 points conversion rate, for example:

• $19.25 converts to 76.xx points, but actually represents a 75pt or 76pt contract
• $44.55 converts to 176.xx points, but actually represents a 175pt or 176pt contract

For these, I've assumed they're the rounded-to-5 version. I've done a bunch of these corrections, but not all; I haven't corrected 90/91 and 190/191 point contracts to 90 & 190, for example. There's likely some customers where I am misrepresenting by correcting (e.g., they actually did buy a 76pt contract).

There's also surely some people who bought a 'weird' size contract (like 73pts) but were taxed for weird+1, which I wouldn't be able to identify. There's no signs anyone was under-taxed.

It's almost certain my number is not exactly right, but I feel pretty good that I'm close. Despite being lower than DVC News, I think my May number (147,069) is likely a little high, maybe by 20-30 points or so in May.