Upcomming announcement speculation thread

[Coach81]

 

[Crystal_27]

My guide called me and told me the same thing, prices up at BWV and BCV to $115 per point on March 7th!

Up from $106, right? WOW, that certainly does NOT bode well for a decrease for BLT!

 

[disneynutz]

Disney raises the prices to make you feel special when they offer you a deal and lower them for a limited time only.

If it didn't work, they wouldn't do it. Disney knows how to make money.

Bill

 

[Inkmahm]

I totaly agree. Would you buy eggs directly from the hen for $10 per dozen, when you could buy them at the corner store for $5 per dozen. If this is true ROFR will climb as Disney looks for inventory. This will be good for members like me who have contracts for sale.

Well, I'd say there are some DVC members who would do just that! They use their points to sale on DCL for MUCH more than it would cost if they paid cash instead. Mostly because it is easier to not have to rent or transfer their points to someone else to get the cash for the cruise. There are likely DVC members who would do the same thing as far as buying more points at a much higher price just because it is "easier" to do directly from Disney!

 

[DebbieB]

I really don't get this if this is true. Do they want everyone to buy resale?

There are only a few points available at the soldout resorts, I think they feel they would rather try to get the high price on them, members who want to do small add-ons and don't want to deal with resale. Plus they can rent them out through CRO if not sold.

 

[MinnieGirl33]

Trying to remember & for the life of me can't... Don't we typically get advance notice of price increases, even if it was only a few days to a week?

Have they ever just arbitrarily woke up one morning & said "Starting today, ABC resort will cost $XYZ per point?

 

[Nonsuch]

She also said they are on the "cusp of" getting close to selling out GC and she mentioned that in the past they typically announce some new incentives at this point to push the resort to a sell out. I'm new to this stuff so hopefully this all makes sense.

"cusp of" means they have finally sold over half the available points
There are 5897 deeds filed by DISNEY VAC with the Orange County California Recorder. Details about points per deed is not available online, but repeated names indicates many split contracts.
If the average is 100 points/deed, then VGC is 52% sold
100points/deed x 5897deeds / 1136968total_points

 

[CrazyDuck]

"cusp of" means they have finally sold over half the available points
There are 5897 deeds filed by DISNEY VAC with the Orange County California Recorder. Details about points per deed is not available online, but repeated names indicates many split contracts.
If the average is 100 points/deed, then VGC is 52% sold
100points/deed x 5897deeds / 1136968total_points

I doubt the average deed is 100 points. First of all most people won't split the deed because they don't know its an option. I went to the site and checked and only maybe 1 in 10 deeds were split... So like 9 out of 10 deeds will record at atleast 160 points. Those that split would probably record around 100. For everyone that splits a deed at 100 there is probably someone who will buy 300. So my guess would be that the average is probably still around 160... which would put the resort closer to 80-85% sold...

But thats just my guess....

 

[Tigger031266]

I totaly agree. Would you buy eggs directly from the hen for $10 per dozen, when you could buy them at the corner store for $5 per dozen. If this is true ROFR will climb as Disney looks for inventory. This will be good for members like me who have contracts for sale.

Well the $10 hen (Disney) can always exercise ROFR and mess up the $5 purchase. DIsney is saying, it really may not be worth it for $30 per point profit minus closing costs, selling costs.......). Disney really does not care if we sell DVC between ourselves for margins less than 30%.

 

[kt-scarlett]

My guide called me and told me the same thing, prices up at BWV and BCV to $115 per point on March 7th!

But aren't these two of the only three resorts (plus VWL) whose contracts expire in 2042? Why would only their price increase when they have the shortest contracts available? Am I missing something?

 

[tjkraz]

But aren't these two of the only three resorts (plus VWL) whose contracts expire in 2042? Why would only their price increase when they have the shortest contracts available? Am I missing something?

Supply and demand.

People still go to DVC for points at those resorts. Resale will save money but the wait can be long, many contracts are stripped, you may have to accept a Use Year that is less than ideal and financing is more difficult.

I don't know how many new 160+ contracts they are selling but for small add-ons it's still often the best approach to take even with a higher price.

 

[DJmommy]

What effect will this have on resale prices of these resorts, by raising the direct price of BCV and BWV? Anyone care to speculate on this?

 

[queendarvet]

Do you think they will raise prices at Vero and Hilton Head as well? The prices at both places were lowered not too long ago. I also find it odd that the price increases would occur without any notice.

 

[corpcomp]

What effect will this have on resale prices of these resorts, by raising the direct price of BCV and BWV? Anyone care to speculate on this?

Very little I suspect in the near term. A lot of people are selling because they have to in this economy and a lot of people are bottom feeding for bargains. No one wants to pay the price Disney is charging. And if people keep their sale prices low, Disney will ROFR more at that price and make an extra $9 per point of resale for those that do buy through Disney.

Let's just hope they don't raise ticket prices again this year, but I'm afraid that almost a given.

 

[tammymacb]

I think HHI and VB points won't be increased.

Down the road, I think Disney will offer an extension for BWV, BCV and VWL. I think in 2042 VB and HHI will be dropped by Disney.

 

[corpcomp]

But aren't these two of the only three resorts (plus VWL) whose contracts expire in 2042? Why would only their price increase when they have the shortest contracts available? Am I missing something?

They will likely extend those contracts same as OKW. Just a matter of time and people will be glad to extend at these two resorts.

 

[tjkraz]

Actually I'll amend my prior statement. It struck me that in addition to supply and demand, one other possible motivation for the price increase is to boost sales at AKV and BLT.

With BWV, BCV and BLT all priced identically at $115, the BLT purchase/add-on makes much more sense. 18 extra years, lower dues and the close proximity to a theme park. And if you're DVC, the new resort is much more profitable than ROFRing and old resort and paying all of the administrative expenses associated with re-selling those points.

So in addition to S&D, it's entirely possible that the price increase is simply designed to push more buyers to BLT.

I don't know that there will be an immediate impact on resale prices. Prices will go up if DVC starts ROFRing more contracts. But I've not heard of them having waiting lists for BCV and BWV points like they did 2+ years ago.

As for contract extensions, the more time that passes, the less likely I think it will be. Why would they take $15 per point now for a short extension when they can get $200 per point selling "new" 50-year contracts in about 30 years?

There are a lot of admin expenses involved with extensions so I don't believe they are terribly profitable. And the inference has been that the OKW extension wasn't particularly well received.

Again, I think DVC would rather see people spend money on a 50-point BLT add-on rather than extending their BWV contract for a few additional years.

 

[stopher1]

They will likely extend those contracts same as OKW. Just a matter of time and people will be glad to extend at these two resorts.

That's kind of what I was thinking "might" be included in the mix of whatever it is that they end up announcing. Incentives as other have said don't require a big meeting to gear up for. Sure Aulani would, and that most likely will be part of it all. I didn't really follow the OKW extension very closely since I don't own there, but with so many others expiring in '42, it would seem like they would want to extend at least some of them if not all of them. At least it would to me.

 

[sssteele]

I thought the "Do Not Call" lists did not pertain to businesses and organizations with whom you have an already existing relationship? Anybody else remember hearing or reading about this?

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Actually I'll amend my prior statement. It struck me that in addition to supply and demand, one other possible motivation for the price increase is to boost sales at AKV and BLT.

With BWV, BCV and BLT all priced identically at $115, the BLT purchase/add-on makes much more sense. 18 extra years, lower dues and the close proximity to a theme park. And if you're DVC, the new resort is much more profitable than ROFRing and old resort and paying all of the administrative expenses associated with re-selling those points.

Again, I think DVC would rather see people spend money on a 50-point BLT add-on rather than extending their BWV contract for a few additional years.

Well, I'm not so sure. Why would anyone purchase BWV/BCV direct over BLT? Why group them together price wise? If sales are still steady for BWV/BCV depsite BLT incentives, that tells you something. The motivation for purchasing BWV/BCV does not drop due to the price increase. I think there must be real problems with BLT sales. DVC still wants to market it as a premier site. Could this be a set up for a two tier system?