Ugh! Why is Seven Dwarfs FP+ impossible right now?

[LittleMissMagic]

As an annual passholder, I can book FP+ 30 days in advance. Earlier this summer, I had no problem booking my Seven Dwarfs Mine Train FP+ at 30 days for the weekend of July 4th (on two different days). Yesterday was my first 30 day-out for my next trip, and I got the dreaded "Standby Available" message. Again, today I got on exactly at midnight.... Standby Available!!!

I'm just really confused because while I didn't have the best selection of times for the weekend of July 4th, I was able to get FP+ for Seven Dwarfs on two separate days. What is up with this week in August (16th and 17th so far)? Was free dining offered or something?

Is there a chance more times will open later? Do you think I'm having trouble because the two days I've tried for Seven Dwarfs have been over the weekend... maybe I can get a Monday or Tuesday FP+?

And another observation.... the Standby Available message has also been showing for the Festival of Fantasy Parade and Wishes on both days. Are those FP+ options really that popular?

 

[Figment Mom]

I don't think FD starts until the end of August but I could be mistaken.

I'm wondering when FP+ was originally released for 7DMT. Is it possible that there were none released back when the 60 days opened for the people that had trips planned for July 4th?

If so, maybe many of them didn't go back into the system to switch an existing FP+ for 7DMT.

 

[Disney Queenie]

This will be my 6th August trip and honestly I think a lot of "Veterans" choose this time period, so you have more "educated competition" KWIM?

 

[palmtreelover08]

I believe bounce back free dining from last summer starts either the 18th or 20th of August

 

[MickeyMinnie1971]

We moved here in May and although my DH is now a CM (we relocated when he was hired) we already had APs, so we are still using them since we can't make FP with the main gate passes. I have been checking at 30 days for FP availability for SDMT and Main Street Electrical Parade without success. I check just every few days because we live very close to MK and can go anytime. I haven't checked at midnight at the 30 day mark though.

We have been on SDMT a couple of times when it first opened in May. We moved a few days after it opened, and I was able to book those the day SDMT went live on FP system for reservations. Since then I have had no luck.

 

[asmit4]

Hmmm...disney has about 34,000 on average in disney rooms right? So that means they all have 60 day access.

TP says ridership is about 1200/hr. So figure an MK day being 12 hours....so that's 14400 per day. Let's say FP is 40% of that.....so about 5500 per day.

It is VERY easy for me to see that at 34000 guests and only 5500 FP available per day- that there would be NO availability at the 30 day mark.

 

[Fantasmic303]

We made some changes to our plans within the 30 day time frame and had to switch some FPs, one of them being 7D. There was nothing but standby available, but I kept checking and a window DID eventually open. It might've been a fluke, it probably was luck, but I would suggest to just continue trying - you might get lucky too!

 

[mm1971]

We will be there the last week of August. I booked mine for 2 separate days at the 60 day window opening. I recently tried to change the time and there was nothing available. One we kept, the other we just chose something else since we didn't want to wait until 9PM (the original time given by the silly system they use). I am guessing the usually slow time will not be so slow. With all the talk of the economy and people struggling, I think someone is lying to us.

We'll plan to ride early in the day or later at night when the stand by line is shorter if we want to go more than the one time we have FP for. Good luck getting one, I have heard that people were able to get them on the day of at the kiosks.

 

[wareagle57]

Hmmm...disney has about 34,000 on average in disney rooms right? So that means they all have 60 day access.

TP says ridership is about 1200/hr. So figure an MK day being 12 hours....so that's 14400 per day. Let's say FP is 40% of that.....so about 5500 per day.

It is VERY easy for me to see that at 34000 guests and only 5500 FP available per day- that there would be NO availability at the 30 day mark.

Just curious where you are getting your 34K figure for resort guests. Can you see this information for different times of the year? And what % of WDW guests would you say stay on property?

Assuming the average room costs only $150 per night (I'm sure it is much more) that comes out to almost 2 billion dollars a year just from hotels. That's pretty amazing.

 

[asmit4]

I asked a few weeks back what the capacity in rooms was on disney property. I *think* someone said that if you average 3 people per room at 90% full...you come to around 34K but I'm not 100% sure on that. Last year DW was around 85% full if you look at the entire year.

 

[asmit4]

Actually-I was WAY off....the 34K is # of rooms- not people

http://touringplans. com/walt-disney-world/hotels/number-rooms

SOO that makes FP for 7DMT even HARDER to get.

 

[francie57]

We have APs but because we are staying on-site Aug. 16-23 we were able to make our FP+ times back in June and we had no trouble getting SDMT for two different days. My guess would be that all of the on-site guests have booked them and you will have to hope and keep checking for cancellations.

 

[JimmyV]

I asked a few weeks back what the capacity in rooms was on disney property. I *think* someone said that if you average 3 people per room at 90% full...you come to around 34K but I'm not 100% sure on that. Last year DW was around 85% full if you look at the entire year.

According to Touring Plans, there are 30,405 on site rooms (including the S/D whose guests also get 60 day booking privileges.) Figure that mid-August is a slightly slower time, so we can use 70% occupancy as a guestimate. That is roughly 21,280 rooms occupied by around 3.2 people on average for a total of roughly 70,000 on site guests. Perhaps 25% of them will go to the MK for the day, with the others going to other parks or no parks at all. That is 17,500 people. (And if the 70% figure is unreasonably low, the number will be even higher). Assuming the other assumptions were correct, that would be 17,500 people* with 60 day booking privileges battling for 5,000 FPs per day. The unknown variable is what percentage of those people will book more than 30 days in advance in order to beat the AP holders and off site people to the punch.

*Another unknown variable is how many of these guests don't meet the height requirement, how many others traveling with them will not ride the ride because they have children who do not meet the height requirement, and how many people flat out don't want to ride the ride. These are impossible to calculate.

 

[mistysue]

Getting FP+ switched around for that week has been impossible! They must have lowered the number available.
We had to switch a couple of days meaning I had to give up great times I booked at 60 days. As of right now I have FP+ for the mine train, but only if Disney will let my 3 and 5 year old kids board and ride alone. I know they won't so now I get to play the game of hoping I can move the time eventually. Then everything we are getting is for late evening so no chance of 4th FP's. It's interesting to see old posts of people saying you can get these FP+ without much trouble if you need to and see they are talking about really busy times. This has been crazy. We're having trouble during the days that 3 years ago we were laughing about standing in EPCOT and going minutes between sightings of any other person at all.

 

[MissKIA]

Free dining starts on Aug 17

 

[ErinsMommy]

I think free dning starts on 8/31.

 

[ErinsMommy]

Free dining starts on Aug 17

Free dining actually starts on 8/31.

 

[MissKIA]

Free dining actually starts on 8/31.

I don't know how I managed to get it on Aug 17 then. I guess I'm special.

 

[PJ]

Florida AP seasonal pass blackout ends 8/14 so I'm guessing its locals.

 

[ct7878]

Keep trying... I also have AP's and we have had success in getting 7DMT on the same day- usually around 7:30-8 am ish. We have done this twice and both times have been for Saturday.... not sure if they open some moRe up on same day, but it has worked well for us!