TSM standby-less test Oct. 6-9

[Dallas_Lady]

If the third track is dedicated for FP+, and there's no way to divert the standby guests to fill any gaps in the FP+ flow, then they need to ensure they distribute enough FPs (and for the correct times) to ensure that those gaps in the FP line don't form.

But since the FP system is all digital, if there is a gap because they didn't distribute enough, can't they just dump more FP into the system right then? They used to do that with the "Surprise" FP's, the machine would give you an extra FP for something that had availability and needed to be filled. They could just have a surprise Toy Story FP appear in the MDE accounts of random people in the parks that day as a way to manage usage.

 

[johde]

The problem I see is that if they do move to a "FP+ only" system at some of the rides, what happens when people miss their window? You don't have a SB line to draw from, and you end up running at way less than capacity, resulting in fewer guests getting to ride per hour. That's a big negative change.

Not to mention all the people who were not able to get a FP for that ride who would be turned away altogether.

Basically, they would be ensuring the wait is capped at 15 minutes or so, but only for those lucky enough to score a FP, by not allowing thousands of people to get in line who would normally be causing the 60 minute waits.

As someone pointed out earlier, capacity has not changed. This means that those not riding in the past were "self-selected" (i.e., those not willing to wait in a line that long). Under a FP+ only model, those who ride will be determined solely by who was able to get a FP, leaving even those who would have been willing to wait an hour "SOL."

Knowing that the ride has seats going empty even though you were prevented from waiting would be a very bitter pill for any guest to swallow.

In order to ensure they maintain capacity, they would need to increase the number of FPs distributed, which in turn would make FP not so fast.

Theoretically, if the FP return line has a constant 15 minute wait there would be empty seats that would be needed to be filled "standby line". The problem is how do you keep the line at 15minutes plus or minus a reasonable amount. So, the return line is never empty and the return line never explodes.
Thinking out loud. One system that might work. You start out by prebooking FP+ for over 100% of capacity for the 9:00 - 9:30 FP slots. You account for no shows and have enough people to almost instantly create an line at rope drop. From 11:00 - Close you prebook 80%-90% of capacity with the plan of releasing day of FP+ to keep the line in check. Releasing fewer day of FP+ will shorten the return line. Releasing more will lengthen it. But the goal would be to consistently release slots manage the gap.

Yes, I know you've now created a system where people without FP+'s need to constantly check the app/kiosk and getting to ride becomes more "luck of the draw" instead of "how long are you willing to wait".

I'm still not convinced that there is a large scale plan to remove the SB lines. Disney has spent time and money over the last several years converting standard queues into interactive queues to hopefully entertain guests while they wait. I'm still thinking this test was a combination of possibly a) maximizing FP+'s on a mostly FP+ only side of TSMM combined with a SB TSMM and b) FP+ only for the initial opening of new Frozen attraction where they don't want to take up the space for the SB queue that would be needed.

 

[lugnut33]

But since the FP system is all digital, if there is a gap because they didn't distribute enough, can't they just dump more FP into the system right then? They used to do that with the "Surprise" FP's, the machine would give you an extra FP for something that had availability and needed to be filled. They could just have a surprise Toy Story FP appear in the MDE accounts of random people in the parks that day as a way to manage usage.

Or they could just pull people from the standby lines.

 

[mbrittb00]

I agree (in fact, I think I said exactly that dozens of pages ago). But IF the third track is to be used for FP+ only, then they need to test how to distribute the FPs to maximize the efficiency of that third track. Otherwise, they will run into the situation where cars are going out empty.

Yeah, but if that was the purpose of the test then why didn't they just use ONE of their their two existing tracks (since only one track would be used for the FP+ only), and leave the other track as SB.

 

[magicbob]

But since the FP system is all digital, if there is a gap because they didn't distribute enough, can't they just dump more FP into the system right then? They used to do that with the "Surprise" FP's, the machine would give you an extra FP for something that had availability and needed to be filled. They could just have a surprise Toy Story FP appear in the MDE accounts of random people in the parks that day as a way to manage usage.

There would still be a gap. They would not know to release more "spur of the moment" FPs until cars are already going out empty. By the time people arrive to use their "bonus" FPs, the gap could be filled with newly arriving FP holders. That's why it would be important to project the correct number up front to keep the line balanced.

Or they could just pull people from the standby lines.

Unless the proposed third track is in an adjacent building with it's own queue and it's not really possible to get people easily from the SB line to the third track.

Yeah, but if that was the purpose of the test then why didn't they just use ONE of their their two existing tracks (since only one track would be used for the FP+ only), and leave the other track as SB.

Good point. I don't know.

 

[vacationer1954]

The problem I see is that if they do move to a "FP+ only" system at some of the rides, what happens when people miss their window?

What happens if people miss an ADR? I mentioned before I don't mind having a standby line as long as FP+s are available for the full capacity of the attraction and the standby line is truly a standby line, waiting to visit the attraction only if someone with a FP+ is a no-show.

That's a big negative change.

I feel that moving to the approach I've been talking about is a big positive change.

 

[magicbob]

What happens if people miss an ADR? I mentioned before I don't mind having a standby line as long as FP+s are available for the full capacity of the attraction and the standby line is truly a standby line, waiting to visit the attraction only if someone with a FP+ is a no-show.

I feel that moving to the approach I've been talking about is a big positive change.

But keep in mind that you will only have a limited number of FPs (yes, they've made it "possible" to get a 4th, etc., but try getting those for a popular ride).

You won't just have to wait in that true "standby" line hoping for an empty seat if you miss your FP appointment. You'll also be in that boat for every attraction you weren't able to get a FP+ for.

Even if they make FP+ available for the full capacity of each ride, that doesn't mean that you will be able to get a FP for every ride. They'll still be spread around to ensure that everyone gets at least a few FPs.

Couple this with tiers in several parks, and I don't see how that can be considered a big positive.

Further, it severely punishes guests who just show up and buy tickets at the gate. If they make all of the rides by reservation only, they might as well make park admission by reservation only as well.

 

[vacationer1954]

But keep in mind that you will only have a limited number of FPs (yes, they've made it "possible" to get a 4th, etc., but try getting those for a popular ride).

The more FP+ are available the better chance of getting the ones you would want. Nothing is lost. Things are just moved around. This change I believe will benefit those who have been getting fewer prime choices. And that's a good thing.

 

[magicbob]

The more FP+ are available the better chance of getting the ones you would want. Nothing is lost. Things are just moved around. This change I believe will benefit those who have been getting fewer prime choices. And that's a good thing.

Possibly, but I think that's wishful thinking. It's more likely that those extra FPs will still get eaten up by all the people who choose it as one of their three, leaving many people relegated to an interminable standby wait.

Also, take into account the amount of detailed scheduling required to go from one ride appointment to the next throughout the day. Even some of the FP uber-users don't want their day to be that structured.

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

What happens if people miss an ADR? I mentioned before I don't mind having a standby line as long as FP+s are available for the full capacity of the attraction and the standby line is truly a standby line, waiting to visit the attraction only if someone with a FP+ is a no-show.

I feel that moving to the approach I've been talking about is a big positive change.

Well they currently get charged a $10/person penalty. I find it annoying enough that if I I wake up and find that 'm faced with a rainy day (and the past month or two, has been ridiculously wet even for Florida) that I still have to go to the park I made an ADR in 180 days ago or pay a fee. Under your plan, it would be worse. I would either have to stick with plan I made 60 days ago or be stuck in a really long standby line. I knew on this trip that I would never be able to change our plans for one of our MK days, because that was the day we had FP+ for 7DMT and A & E and we wouldn't be able to reschedule those or pick them up another day. I love planning, but that's too much for me. We've been able to roll with the punches so far, but if Disney went with your plan, we'd be done.

 

[vacationer1954]

Possibly, but I think that's wishful thinking.

I think it is more likely to be the case than what you suggested that having more FP+s available because attractions go standby-less would result in more difficulty getting FP+s.

It's more likely that those extra FPs will still get eaten up by all the people who choose it as one of their three, leaving many people relegated to an interminable standby wait.

Many, but fewer, people relegated to a long wait. It is simple math. The only people who end up with more waiting with a standby-less arrangement are the people who used the standby line in the past.

Under your plan, it would be worse.

Weather is going to happen and I'd rather have the load on each attraction spread out over the course of the week rather than extra heavy on some days and extra light on other days for whatever reason.

 

[mom2rtk]

What happens if people miss an ADR? I mentioned before I don't mind having a standby line as long as FP+s are available for the full capacity of the attraction and the standby line is truly a standby line, waiting to visit the attraction only if someone with a FP+ is a no-show.

I don't mind if an occasional table at a restaurant goes unused even though I was unable to get an ADR. But I would be livid at ride cars going out empty when I couldn't get a FP.

Why? It's simple. Because I didn't pay for the restaurant and I did pay for the ride access.

 

[vacationer1954]

I don't mind if an occasional table at a restaurant goes unused even though I was unable to get an ADR. But I would be livid at ride cars going out empty when I couldn't get a FP.

Like I said before I'm okay with a standby line as long as it really is a standby line filling in gaps where people with FP+s don't show.

 

[mom2rtk]

Like I said before I'm okay with a standby line as long as it really is a standby line filling in gaps where people with FP+s don't show.

I'm not. A standby line like that would be a worthless black hole of time. Just as I would never fly standby, I would not even bother trying that sort of a standby line. To me it would be the same as not having one.

 

[faneuil]

Like I said before I'm okay with a standby line as long as it really is a standby line filling in gaps where people with FP+s don't show.

So treat SB sort of like the current single rider lines?

 

[vacationer1954]

I'm not.

I can respect that. We each hope that Disney makes decisions about how to operate that are the ones we like best.

So treat SB sort of like the current single rider lines?

Perfect.

 

[magicbob]

I think it is more likely to be the case than what you suggested that having more FP+s available because attractions go standby-less would result in more difficulty getting FP+s.

Except I didn't say that it would be more difficult to get a FP if they offered more. I simply stated that your assumption that YOU will get more is not a guarantee.

Many, but fewer, people relegated to a long wait. It is simple math. The only people who end up with more waiting with a standby-less arrangement are the people who used the standby line in the past.

The math is not quite as simple as you want to make it. If they make the ride FP+ only, they will still have to limit the number of FPs distributed to ensure that it remains "fast." Yes, more people will ride that day with a FP if there are more FPs available, but if they "flood the zone" with enough FPs to meet demand, then FP just becomes the current SB line, with the accompanying long waits that SB has for some rides. So, they must still have smaller supply than demand. But under a FP+ only model (with SB = squeeze you in if there's room), anyone who doesn't have a FP will have a much longer wait than they would have under the traditional SB model.

And again, you are assuming that you'll have no trouble getting all the FPs your heart desires. I maintain that going exclusively FP+ would not mean that each person gets a lot MORE FPs, but that MORE people would each get 3 FPs.

So, it might appear better for the "masses" because more people would have a FP for ride A, but it would result in a much worse circumstance for all except the three rides you have a FP for (even if you're able to get an extra FP or two after using your three, don't count on getting good ones).

So treat SB sort of like the current single rider lines?

Perfect.

Disastrous. Not only will the people relegated to SB (and that will be ALL of us for lots of rides) be in for an excruciating wait, they can't ride together either! Be careful what you wish for.

 

[mom2rtk]

The math is not quite as simple as you want to make it. If they make the ride FP+ only, they will still have to limit the number of FPs distributed to ensure that it remains "fast." Yes, more people will ride that day with a FP if there are more FPs available, but if they "flood the zone" with enough FPs to meet demand, then FP just becomes the current SB line, with the accompanying long waits that SB has for some rides. So, they must still have smaller supply than demand. But under a FP+ only model (with SB = squeeze you in if there's room), anyone who doesn't have a FP will have a much longer wait than they would have under the traditional SB model.

Witness the photos from last week's test of empty cars going out on TSMM. Couple that with the anecdotal stories of upset children out front being told they cannot ride. Lovely, huh?

 

[vacationer1954]

Except I didn't say that it would be more difficult to get a FP if they offered more. I simply stated that your assumption that YOU will get more is not a guarantee.

Nothing is guaranteed of course but again the only people that would likely have to wait more in a system like this would be those who used the standby lines in the past.

The math is not quite as simple as you want to make it.

I think it is pretty simple and I think you're over-complicating and are making an error in your analysis (see below) that is making it sound worse than it would actually be.

if they "flood the zone" with enough FPs to meet demand, then FP just becomes the current SB line

That is not true because Disney controls how many FP+ are available but doesn't control how many people join the current SB line.

And again, you are assuming that you'll have no trouble getting all the FPs your heart desires.

I never said that. I respect that you prefer the current approach but I would appreciate it if you not make things up like this to make it seem like what I prefer would be worse than it would actually be. You want things to be one way. I want them to be the other. Please respect my preference as much as I respect yours. Thanks!

 

[faneuil]

Disastrous. Not only are people relegated to SB (and that will be ALL of us for lots of rides) in for an excruciating wait, they can't ride together either! Be careful what you wish for.

I agree with you. I was just making sure I understood what vacationer1954 was saying.