Tropical storm nate :-(

[florida-again]

I'm (hopefully) flying to Orlando from the UK on Thursday.

My understanding of hurricane predictions is non-existant...

can anyone tell me if I should be worrying about Nate? Not so much it's presence once I arrive, but whether it might stop me from travelling (Hurricane frances did last year, we were 4 WHOLE DAYS LATE!!!)

 

[lewdyan1]

You look like you are in the clear, this is the 5 day forecast map from weather underground.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200515_5day.html

 

[Poohnatic]

I think you can relax on this one. According to the models projected by the National Hurricane Center (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), the current path is going to 'boomerang' and put its course on a parallel with the eastern seaboard. It already is too far north to imact Florida.

I'm just concerned that we're getting close to Phillipe. I have a theory about these storms that the ones that come to my part of Florida are close family friends and relations-DH reminded me that his buddy Phil is really Phillipe.

Suzanne

 

[Aidensmom]

Because of the unpredictablity of hurricanes, there is a small chance it could turn towards FL (one of the storms last year had a similar prediction as Nate and ended up coming into FL, I think maybe it was Jeanne), but odds are it will stay closer to its predicted path.

 

[Aidensmom]

I'm just concerned that we're getting close to Phillipe. I have a theory about these storms that the ones that come to my part of Florida are close family friends and relations-DH reminded me that his buddy Phil is really Phillipe.

Suzanne

That is funny that you say that, I have noticed that too! Frances was my great grandmother's name, Jeanne is my mother's name. I don't know anyone named Nate, so we are probably safe!

 

[florida-again]

Haha! Frances was the one that 'ruined' my trip last year and it's my step-mother's name who has ruined my relationship with my dad....so there we go!

 

[Talking Hands]

Hate to say this but there is also a tropical disturbance near the Bahamas that they are sending hurricane hunter planes into today. Hope that doesn't develop into anything.

 

[Virgo10]

Hate to say this but there is also a tropical disturbance near the Bahamas that they are sending hurricane hunter planes into today. Hope that doesn't develop into anything.

And from the Weather Channel:

Closer to the U. S., a tropical low east of Miami continues to kick up squally weather and rough surf (including the threat of rip currents) over the northern Bahamas and Florida Peninsula. The low could transition to a tropical depression later today and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Unsettled conditions are expected to persist over the northern Bahamas and Florida Peninsula for the next day or two.

 

[Feralpeg]

I was watching a local Orlando news station this morning and the weatherman on that station is not in agreement that Nate will go out to sea. He said it is to close to Florida for comfort and is meandering around. It is not being affected by the same winds that are pushing Marie out to sea. He said Nate really needs to be watched. There is a small chance that it could do a loop and head back toward Florida.

Also, they are currently watching a small system right off the east coast of Florida that is starting to get some rotation. It is possible that it could become a tropical depression and maybe even a tropical storm. Either way, they are predicting a good deal of rain for the next few days.

 

[MinnieM3]

sheesh. Can't wait for Nov. 30th! End of "H" season!

 

[Talking Hands]

Yep end of hurricane season but it doesn't mean we can't get a hurricane. There have been hurricanes in every month of the year. We always need to be prepared.

 

[Talking Hands]

000
Wtnt21 Knhc 061436
Tcmat1
Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast/advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al162005
1500z Tue Sep 06 2005

At 11 Am Edt...1500z...a Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Issued For
The East Coast Of Florida From North Of Jupiter Northward To
Titusville Including Merritt Island...and The Government Of The
Bahamas Has Issued A Tropical Storm Warning For Grand Bahama And
The Abacos.

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

Tropical Depression Center Located Near 26.5n 78.6w At 06/1500z
Position Accurate Within 30 Nm

Present Movement Is Stationary

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 1007 Mb
Max Sustained Winds 25 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical
Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.

Repeat...center Located Near 26.5n 78.6w At 06/1500z
At 06/1200z Center Was Located Near 26.5n 78.5w

Forecast Valid 07/0000z 27.0n 79.0w
Max Wind 35 Kt...gusts 45 Kt.
34 Kt... 30ne 30se 0sw 30nw.

Forecast Valid 07/1200z 27.6n 79.3w
Max Wind 40 Kt...gusts 50 Kt.
34 Kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast Valid 08/0000z 28.0n 79.7w
Max Wind 50 Kt...gusts 60 Kt.
50 Kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 Kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast Valid 08/1200z 28.5n 80.0w
Max Wind 60 Kt...gusts 75 Kt.
50 Kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 Kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast Valid 09/1200z 29.0n 80.5w
Max Wind 60 Kt...gusts 75 Kt.
50 Kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 Kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Extended Outlook. Note...errors For Track Have Averaged Near 250 Nm
On Day 4 And 325 Nm On Day 5...and For Intensity Near 20 Kt Each Day

Outlook Valid 10/1200z 29.5n 81.0w
Max Wind 60 Kt...gusts 75 Kt.

Outlook Valid 11/1200z 30.5n 82.0w...inland
Max Wind 40 Kt...gusts 50 Kt.

Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 26.5n 78.6w

Next Advisory At 06/2100z

Forecaster Avila

 

[lewdyan1]

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Blah. A tropical storm warning triggers some things at work, I better make sure operations knows. I guess it is going to be a rainy Night of Joy this year as well. UGH figures.