Tropical Storm Ivan *Now Hurricane Ivan*

[AlanUK]

Hurricane Ivan has weakened overnight and is now back down to category 4 strength, just! He still has maximum sustained winds of 145mph He is forcast to strengthen again as the current weakening is due to an eyewall replacement cycle which is due to complete this morning. Hurricanes usually strengthen once this process is complete.

He will be travelling over Jamaica today, the cayman islands tomorrow and onto Cuba on saturday. Depending on how he interacts with these land masess we could see a weakening of Ivan by Sunday. However as none of these islands are very large it is not very probable.

Once through Cuba the weather models are much more in agreement after last nights runs that Ivan is headed for Florida with a much better grouping of the forcast tracks. The official track from the NHC has been adjusted to the west slightly and now takes Ivan up the West coast of Florida.

The last few days have seen a bit of a pendulum effect with these tracks though as the predicted path is moved east and then west between runs. I would expect to see further small variations for the next day or so. The path could threfore eventually take Ivan as far west as the New Orleans area or over the southern tip of Florida towards the Bahamas.

Latest forcast tracks are....

 

[KayleeUK]

Thanks for the update.

Thinking of those poor people in Ivan's path.

 

[Feralpeg]

I'd always dreamed of retiring and moving to Florida. Well, I'm here now and so are the hurricanes. Whats the weather like in England? Maybe I'll move over there!

 

[Tink78]

It has been nice, but today it's a bit grey and they are saying it's going to be the start of the autumn for us now.

For the majority of the time you are better off weather wise than we are, with the exception of at the moment!!

Is there any news on the rest of Florida, other than the keys?

The current path show it will hit mid Florida on Tues am.
Do you think the airports etc. will close again?

 

[Feralpeg]

Tink, I'd be very surprised if the airports don't close. Unless Ivan heads way out to the Gulf, most of Florida will feel the effects of Ivan. It is a very large hurricane. It is more the size of Frances than Charley. The only saving grace is that at this time, it is moving quickly. The teachers at DD's school are already telling the kids that they will most likely be out of school at least Monday and Tuesday. If Ivan makes landfall on the west coast of Florida and moves inland and the eye passes to the west of Orlando, we will be on the side that gets the worst winds. As much as I hate to say it, I think you will have to reschedule again. I'm so sorry.

 

[Tink78]

That's what we thought, but it's so annoying as our holiday company won't let us re-book until the flight actually gets cancelled!

We don't mind re-scheduling now.
We have waited this long, another week or so won't hurt us, but we just want to know.

We have Discovery Cove and the Backstage Magic Tour booked so if we do have to re-book the holiday we need to re-schedule these also and we want to re-schedule these as quick as poss.

Grrrrrrrrr.......why do the Engligh holiday companies take sooooo long to sort it out this end!!

 

[AlanUK]

Hurricane Ivan has re-intesified slightly overnight with sustained winds up to nearly 155 mph which makes Ivan a strong Category 4 storm bordering Category 5.

Ivan is currently just South of Jamaica having taken a slight westerly turn prior to hitting the island. Things will still not be good in Jamaica. The UK news is doing quite a good job of covering this at the moment too

Ivan is predicted to move more to the northwest over the next couple of days, travelling over the west of Cuba and continuing a northerly turn towards Florida and the southern states.

The weather models have again moved the track to the west slightly with Ivan tracking up the west coast of Florida just out to sea before making landfall towards Tallahassee.

I would expect to see further adjustments to this track over the next couple of days.

 

[Miffy2003]

Alan, many thanks for all your updates.

 

[Netty]

thanks Alan!

 

[Feralpeg]

Hey, guys! Things are looking a little better for central Florida. Ivan is still moving NW. They thought it would be turning by now. They current track takes it further west of the coast. If it takes this track, we will only get a glancing blow. Rain and a little wind I can take. I'll try to keep you posted. TINK78, I see a honeymoon in your near future!

 

[AlanUK]

Ivan is back up to category 5 status, and has been classified as having the 6th lowest central pressure of ANY atlantic basin hurricane.

He is currently tracking towards the Cayman Islands where he is due to cross today before moving onto the west of Cuba. He has slowed down quite a bit over the last couple of days and is currently moving at just 8mph.

As Feralpeg has stated above the predicted track has been moved to the west again and at the moment central Florida looks like it will escape any major problems with this one which is good news.

Currently the predicted tracks take Ivan into Florida just west of Panama City. The forcast tracks are still predicted to change over the next couple of days and if they continue to be adjusted west then Ivan could be hitting the New Orleans area which would be absolutely devestating as much of that area is very prone to flooding

It's still to early to say, the latest forcast tracks are....

 

[AlanUK]

Ivan passed over the Cayman Islands last night with the eye passing just 20 miles from the islands.

Ivan continues to strengthen and weaken fluctuating between category 4 and category 5. He is currently Category 5 but could drop again in the next bulletin from the NHC.

The track continues to shift west (away from Central Florida) and all the models continue to shift the US landfall ever closer to the New Orleans area. The NHC official track remains to the east of all the other models but even that is drifting to the west on a daily basis.

The latest forcast tracks are....