Tropical Storm Ivan *Now Hurricane Ivan*

[AlanUK]

Tropical Sorm Ivan has now formed in the Atlantic.

It is currently in the mid atlantic heading towards the Carribbean on a westerly track. Strengthening is likely over the next few days.

We will have to wait and see what happens with this one.

Alan.

 

[KayleeUK]

Not another one...It seems to have been a very bad year for hurricanes

 

[Miffy2003]

 

[AlanUK]

In all reality it has been a very similar year to last year for Tropical Storm Activity.

Isobel was probably the most memorable storm of last year and that formed on the 6th September 2003. We now have Ivan forming on the 3rd so there is not a lot of difference.

What is different about this year is that the season took a lot longer to get going than in previous years, Ana formed on the 24th of April last year (which was very early) whilst Alex didn't form this year until July 31st (very late).

What this does mean is that we have had all of this years storms form in a very short space of time. That, along with the fact that 2 Hurricanes have already made landfall in the US (Frances will be 3) would give the impression that this has been an abnormally active season.

The prediction from the NHC at the start of the year was for this to be an above normal season, as all the seasons bar 2 (El Nino years) have been since 1995. The prediction is for 12-15 tropical storms this year 6-8 of which will become hurricanes 2-4 of which will be major hurricanes.

We are not at this level yet so I would expect a few more to come over the next month or so.

Alan.

 

[lucy_love_]

i blame global worming

 

[lucy_love_]

Originally posted by AlanUK
In all reality it has been a very similar year to last year for Tropical Storm Activity.

Isobel was probably the most memorable storm of last year and that formed on the 6th September 2003. We now have Ivan forming on the 3rd so there is not a lot of difference.

What is different about this year is that the season took a lot longer to get going than in previous years, Ana formed on the 24th of April last year (which was very early) whilst Alex didn't form this year until July 31st (very late).

What this does mean is that we have had all of this years storms form in a very short space of time. That, along with the fact that 2 Hurricanes have already made landfall in the US (Frances will be 3) would give the impression that this has been an abnormally active season.

The prediction from the NHC at the start of the year was for this to be an above normal season, as all the seasons bar 2 (El Nino years) have been since 1995. The prediction is for 12-15 tropical storms this year 6-8 of which will become hurricanes 2-4 of which will be major hurricanes.

We are not at this level yet so I would expect a few more to come over the next month or so.

Alan.

has there been a prediction to say how many will hit the US?

 

[AlanUK]

Hi Lucy,

As far as I know there are no predictions at the start of the season as to how many hurricanes will make landfall in the US.

It would be done on a best guess estimation if it was done at all as even the tracking of existing hurricanes is open to so much error.

Alan.

 

[AlanUK]

Ivan has been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane.

It is scheduled to strengthen through this week and move over Hispanola towards the Bahamas next weekend.

It's currenlt east of the lesser Antilles and due to hit them late on tuesday.

Alan.

 

[AlanUK]

Ivan is now a category 3 hurricane, that was a very quick intensification over the last few hours and shows how quickly these things can chage.

Ivan now holds the record for the strongest hurricane at such a southerly latitude.

Alan.

 

[SplashMtn]

I hope it isnt another to make landfall after charley and frances in such quick succession.

 

[AlanUK]

Ivan is now a Category 4 hurricane and is forcast to strengthen further. It could well reach category 5 status later on today.

The first air recon mission to investigate Ivan is scheduled for this evening BST so we should know more about the strength and organisation of the storm after that.

This one looks like it could hit the Carribean hard.

Alan.

 

[Tink78]

Any ideas if Ivan is due to hit Florida?

Looking at the predicted path it looks like it will.

We were supposed to fly Sat 4th to Orlando for our honeymoon, this has now been changed and we are going on 14th Sept, but now with this new hurricane forming we are starting to think we are never going to get our honeymoon.

The wedding was only 9 days ago but already feels like forever.

We are starting to think we might as well cancel and re-book to go somewhere else, but I am desparate for my Disney Honeymoon.

Not meaning to sound selfish, and I have been thinking of the poor residents all weekend, worrying about what will happen to their homes and families.

I keep checking the websites to see the news on what damage Francis caused.

If we re-schedule our trip to Orlando, when is safe?
When do the hurricanes tend to fade out?

Been to Orlando twice before in Sept and had no troubles at all!

Thanks

 

[AlanUK]

Hi Tink78,

The accepted window for the Atlantic hurricane season is May-Nov anually. The peak time for the strongest hurricanes is usually August/September as this is when the sea surface temperatures are highest and these are very important in the formation and continuation of a tropical cyclone.

It's impossible to say at this stage if Ivan will hit Florida, the weather models are looking like this might be the case but they often change dramatically when looking at predictions more than 2-3 days away. There is still a long way for Ivan to travel before it gets to Florida and a lot can happen in that time.

I would hold off on making any changes to my plans based on Ivan until I was more certain of where it looks be going. I would be more inclined to base any decision about my holiday at the moment on the devestation caused by Charley and Frances and how long it is going to take until things are back running at the standard I would want them to be.

I'll keep this thread updated with new info as and when I get it.

 

[Tink78]

Hi

Thanks for the info.
We are sitting here feeling so nervous & excited.

I feel nervous that our honeymoon might have to postponed again, and excited that next week we could be finally going on it!

It feels really weird.
I just wish I knew what we were doing.

I will be on here daily and checking all the weather reports etc.

Look forward to hearing any more news from you as you seem really knowledgable about the hurricanes.

Thanks

 

[lucy_love_]

i think my holiday is in ruins

boooooooooooooohoooooooooooooooooooooooo



love

lucy

 

[KayleeUK]

Originally posted by Tink78
Look forward to hearing any more news from you as you seem really knowledgable about the hurricanes.

Tink

He just loves hurricanes I find it interesting too. Florida has really taken a battering this year.

 

[AlanUK]

Latest weather model predictions for Ivan.

Interesting to see at the moment that the models show a distinct split in where they think Ivan is going to go with the official NHC track heading straight for the Florida Peninsular whilst the UKMET model has Ivan continuing to travel west towards Central America.

There will be another update tomorrow morning.

 

[Feralpeg]

From a person that has experienced two hurricanes in the past month, I really hope Ivan goes elsewhere. Florida is pretty battered at this point. The areas of Orlando that were damaged severly by Charley took a pounding again with Frances. Kissimmee is in bad shape. The east coast from Daytona down to Vero Beach is a total disaster. So far, the loss of life seems to be less than Charley. People listened to the warnings and evacuated. Since it hit the entire state, that wasn't an easy task. Many people drove to Georgia. At this point, we have curfews. Some looting has occured in the evacuated areas. They are slowly letting people back in along the coast if they can prove they live there. We had many tornado warnings this afternoon as the outer bands of Frances finally passed. It will be a long time before Florida recovers from this hurricane season.

 

[Tink78]

Same for us Lucy.
This was supposed to be our honeymoon....imagine that!

We got married 9 days ago, and since then have had to come back to work and it doesn't even feel like we got married.

This isn't how you are supposed to spend the few weeks after your wedding day!

When are you due to go?

We were supposed to go on 4th, but got cancelled and had to re-book to 14th.

I checked this morning and Ivan doesn't look as though it will hit Orlando now, the direction has changed but we will have to see.

xx

 

[lucy_love_]

hi tink poor u

we are flying on the 13th but it is very worrying. its awful to hear about the looting, thats shocking. i really hope it doesnt hit.

anyway if things go ok well be there at the same time. were staying at akl. did i read somewhere you are too?

anyway good luck 2 all with this hurricane thing. chanting little chants that it goes somewhere else.

love

lucy