Tropical Storm Hanna - THURSDAY AM (final) update in post #40

[JimMIA]

Anyone who is going to be at VB or WDW during the next 7-10 days should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Hanna. This storm is not currently projected to threaten Central Florida, but this thing has been behaving extremely erratically and is very hard to predict.

The storm is currently located north of Puerto Rico and east of the Bahamas, moving slowly west. It will turn slightly to the NW and continue moving very slowly toward the Bahamas. Toward the middle of next week (Tues/Wed) the storm was projected to move to the SW into the central Bahamas.

If you know anything about hurricanes, you know they just don't go SW! A hurricane has not hit the Bahamas traveling SW since Betsy in 1969. Even the forecasters are saying they’ve tried hard not to predict this storm moving in that direction, and, in fact, the 11 AM track shows a flattening-out westward movement.

A much more likely scenario (IMHO) is for the story to move into the Bahamas, make a right turn, and make landfall somewhere on the East Coast in South or Central Florida. That would likely occur later in the week (Fri-Sun), and would of course put VB right in the crosshairs. This scenario is already starting to develop in some of the more reliable models.

This storm is not currently projected to develop into a hurricane because of wind shear. But the waters it is moving through are plenty warm, and if the shear decreases, strengthening is certainly possible.

This is nothing to freak out about, but certainly something to be aware of.

Here's a link to the 5-day forecast track: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_5day.html#a_topad

 

[lauriegs]

any opinions on how worried I should be at this point? dh and I will be in disney sept. 9-12 for our anniversary...dh esp. isn't worried so much about rain there, but he hates to fly, and is of course worried about how bad the flight could be.

 

[JimMIA]

any opinions on how worried I should be at this point? dh and I will be in disney sept. 9-12 for our anniversary...dh esp. isn't worried so much about rain there, but he hates to fly, and is of course worried about how bad the flight could be.

It is always tough to speculate that far out. However, your biggest threat should be Hanna, and Hanna should be gone by then. Currently there is nothing else out there that could get here in two weeks.

It's always possible that something could pop up in the Gulf suddenly, but that doesn't usually start happening until later in the hurricane season.

 

[donmil723]

Oh great!

DS and DDIL will be leaving tomorrow for Miami on their honeymoon. They will be on RCL's Majesty of the Seas and are supposed to be in Nassau on Tuesday, CocoCay on Wednesday, Key West on Thursday, and back to Miami on Friday. So far, RCL hasn't changed their itinerary.

So Jim, do you think they'll make any of those ports? Is it supposed to be raining in Miami tomorrow and Monday?

Thanks!

Donna

 

[JimMIA]

Oh great!

DS and DDIL will be leaving tomorrow for Miami on their honeymoon. They will be on RCL's Majesty of the Seas and are supposed to be in Nassau on Tuesday, CocoCay on Wednesday, Key West on Thursday, and back to Miami on Friday. So far, RCL hasn't changed their itinerary.

So Jim, do you think they'll make any of those ports? Is it supposed to be raining in Miami tomorrow and Monday?

Thanks!

Donna

That's impossible to say. Our weather here is spotty. We have 80% precipitation chance, but we're only getting occasional rain bands from Gustav. We're supposed to get 1-3 inches overnight. Gustav will not greatly affect them.

Hanna has quite a bit of westerly sheer, which causes most of the heavier weather to blow out to the east of the storm center. That's good news for your son and his wife. Right now, the Bahamas are pretty clear, but that should deteriorate later in the week.

The forecasts don't show it yet, but I'm expecting Hanna to turn to the NW and move toward the central Florida coast. If that happens, it will help your son's itinerary, because they'll be on the underside of the storm.

The cruise line will not sail them into bad weather. I'm not sure what the options are, and only their specific cruise line can tell them. If there aren't any acceptable options, they'll cancel, but they rarely have to do that.

They won't have any issues flying down. Aircraft fly in 150 MPH jet streams every day.

 

[JimMIA]

any opinions on how worried I should be at this point? dh and I will be in disney sept. 9-12 for our anniversary...dh esp. isn't worried so much about rain there, but he hates to fly, and is of course worried about how bad the flight could be.

As I mentioned above, aircraft are built to fly in very high winds.

Stop and think about it for a minute. They fly 500 MPH, into 150-200 MPH jet stream headwinds every day. That's a 700 MPH wind. The aircraft is not going to come apart.

You may get a bit of a bumpy ride, but that's just part of flying. It's normal, not dangerous.

 

[donmil723]

Thanks Jim! I trust your opinion more than those on the weather channel.

Donna

 

[JimMIA]

It looks like Tropical Storm Hanna will bring rainy weather to VB and WDW later this week, but they should not experience storm conditions.

The storm is currently east of the southern Bahamas, moving very slowly west. It is expected to move very slowly for the next 48 hours or so, then turn NW and begin moving rapidly NW. As it spends some time over the warmer Gulf Stream on Thursday, it might intensify to a Category 1 Hurricane.

The official forecast track anticipates a landfall in coastal Georgia, but I would not be surprised to see it hit a little to the right of that track -- possibly as far north as NC.

The worst weather for VB and WDW should occur on Thursday. It will be a rainy day, but it currently looks like the storm will be far enough east of Florida to preclude tropical storm force winds. Most of the weather with this storm has been in the SE quadrant, which will be the farthest away from mainland FL. Of course, that could change when the storm starts moving NW.

 

[KELLY]

I'm loving the last post. We are scheduled to fly out Saturday afternoon for are trip home. The last time we went during hurrican season it was 2004. I really don't care if we have one while we are there. But I would like to get to my vaction

 

[JimMIA]

At 1:30 PM this afternoon, the NHC upgraded Hanna to a Category 1 hurricane.

Hanna's track is only changed slightly, bringing it very slightly closer to Florida and bringing it ashore about at HHI as a Category 1 storm on Friday morning.

 

[fireside1868]

Jim
Thanks for the updates on TS Hanna. Our family will leave for DW on Friday afternoon and drive to BWV. Im hoping we will have a dry vacation but it is not looking that way!! How long will TS 9 take to build and move toward the US.
We are at DW Friday thru Monday and then we leave for Panama City for 6 days Im worried we will be wet for the whole time.

Thanks

Stay away HANNA

 

[smacky1]

How long will the rains last? 1 day...3 days??? We are flying into FLL on Thursday morning and driving to Orlando on Friday. thanks for all the updates. Its so helpful!!!!

 

[JimMIA]

How long will the rains last? 1 day...3 days??? We are flying into FLL on Thursday morning and driving to Orlando on Friday. thanks for all the updates. Its so helpful!!!!

That's always a little hard to say, because it depends on so many factors -- the size of the storm (geographically, not strength), speed the storm is moving, where you are in relation to the storm...lots of variables. Usually, you'll have rain for a day or day and a half unless the storm stalls somewhere or is a very large storm geographically like Wilma was.

For example: At this moment, on Thursday morning, the storm is projected to be over or just east of Abaco in the Bahamas. Abaco is about 150 miles east of West Palm Beach.

That means you would be in the SW quadrant of the storm, and if the storm is moving N or NW, it would be moving away from you. The current predictions are that TS force winds would extend out 90 miles to the SW, which is well short of FLL and should not greatly affect air traffic in.

You should get some rain as the feeder bands move through, but that will be an on-off thing like we had yesterday from Gustav. We had heavy rain in the morning, went to a ball game in the afternoon and the weather was beautiful (ball game stunk, but the weather was good). At 10 AM, it was pouring, at Noon it was clear...welcome to Florida!

By the time you get to WDW, the weather should be good.

All of this is subject to great change, of course, if the storm doesn't move exactly as they now project. So stay tuned.

 

[smacky1]

That's always a little hard to say, because it depends on so many factors -- the size of the storm (geographically, not strength), speed the storm is moving, where you are in relation to the storm...lots of variables. Usually, you'll have rain for a day or day and a half unless the storm stalls somewhere or is a very large storm geographically like Wilma was.

For example: At this moment, on Thursday morning, the storm is projected to be over or just east of Abaco in the Bahamas. Abaco is about 150 miles east of West Palm Beach.

That means you would be in the SW quadrant of the storm, and if the storm is moving N or NW, it would be moving away from you. The current predictions are that TS force winds would extend out 90 miles to the SW, which is well short of FLL and should not greatly affect air traffic in.

You should get some rain as the feeder bands move through, but that will be an on-off thing like we had yesterday from Gustav. We had heavy rain in the morning, went to a ball game in the afternoon and the weather was beautiful (ball game stunk, but the weather was good). At 10 AM, it was pouring, at Noon it was clear...welcome to Florida!

By the time you get to WDW, the weather should be good.

All of this is subject to great change, of course, if the storm doesn't move exactly as they now project. So stay tuned.

JimMIA: Thank you so much for keeping us all up to date on this storm. Its very considerate of you! We have our ponchos and umbrellas already packed! thanks again!

 

[tx2tn]

That's always a little hard to say, because it depends on so many factors -- the size of the storm (geographically, not strength), speed the storm is moving, where you are in relation to the storm...lots of variables. Usually, you'll have rain for a day or day and a half unless the storm stalls somewhere or is a very large storm geographically like Wilma was.

For example: At this moment, on Thursday morning, the storm is projected to be over or just east of Abaco in the Bahamas. Abaco is about 150 miles east of West Palm Beach.

That means you would be in the SW quadrant of the storm, and if the storm is moving N or NW, it would be moving away from you. The current predictions are that TS force winds would extend out 90 miles to the SW, which is well short of FLL and should not greatly affect air traffic in.

You should get some rain as the feeder bands move through, but that will be an on-off thing like we had yesterday from Gustav. We had heavy rain in the morning, went to a ball game in the afternoon and the weather was beautiful (ball game stunk, but the weather was good). At 10 AM, it was pouring, at Noon it was clear...welcome to Florida!

By the time you get to WDW, the weather should be good.

All of this is subject to great change, of course, if the storm doesn't move exactly as they now project. So stay tuned.

Thanks for the update!

My Dw and I are flying in from Charlotte Friday morning. We are projected to leave Charlotte about 8:00 am on Friday. Assuming Hanna continues on as planned, do we have a chance of getting out of Charlotte and do we have a chance of getting into MCO?

 

[JimMIA]

Thanks for the update!

My Dw and I are flying in from Charlotte Friday morning. We are projected to leave Charlotte about 8:00 am on Friday. Assuming Hanna continues on as planned, do we have a chance of getting out of Charlotte and do we have a chance of getting into MCO?

You should be fine getting into MCO. They'll just fly around the weather and come in from the clear side. If you have any problem, it will be getting out of Charlotte. Hanna is now projected to intensify to Cat 2 prior to landfall, and it's hard to estimate what that means for Charlotte on Friday AM. Keep in close touch with your airline later in the week.

And BTW...a badge is a good thing to have! Trust me.

 

[fireside1868]

I am not so worrierd about Hanna now with all the projections running it up the east coast making land fall Friday am. I am worried about IKE! What do you think that one will end up. Will he get into the gulf or run down into S America??

 

[JimMIA]

I am not so worrierd about Hanna now with all the projections running it up the east coast making land fall Friday am.

Hanna still bears watching. The projections call for her to go NW, even N, but this storm has proved very, very difficult to predict. Yesterday, they didn't even know where she was! They made a big correction on her location based on a hurricane-hunter flight -- prior to that, all the assumptions were based on erroneous information.

Whether Hanna goes where they project depends on 1) WHEN she turns to the north, and 2) how FAST she moves once she makes that turn. The sooner she turns and the faster she goes, the farther north the landfall. Right now, she is almost exactly where the most reliable models have been saying she would turn, but she's just sort of hanging out. IF she turns here, that would be good. If she wanders slowly W or SW for a day or two, that's a different story.

I am worried about IKE! What do you think that one will end up. Will he get into the gulf or run down into S America??

It's WAY too early to guess. Right now, all of the computer model guidance indicates Ike is going to move due west to the north shore of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic). After that, who knows? The storm could recurve out into the N. Atlantic, or it could go a little more south and follow a similar path as Gustav. Or it could turn slightly to the right and threaten Florida. Or it could just fall apart. We'll have to take another look in a few days.

 

[JimMIA]

Hanna has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm, and intensity predictions for the next several days have been reduced. However, that outlook could change with a hurricane-hunter flight this afternoon.

At 11 AM, Hanna was located in the SE Bahamas, due north of the strait between Cuba and Haiti. Hanna was wallowing at +/- 2 MPH, sort of toward the SW. That heading, of course, brings her closer to Florida if she follows the forecast track. Hopefully, the shift to the SW represents the beginning of a sharp turn to the north.

Hanna has been heavily impacted by a strong northerly wind shear that has essentially blown up the entire northern half of the storm. Currently all of the weather in the storm is south of the center of rotation, which limits strengthening, but also reduces steering.

Hanna is expected to turn toward the NW later today or tonight and move parallel to the east coast of Florida. Landfall could occur anywhere between N. Florida and South Carolina. That, like everything else, is subject to change.

IF the storm turns as predicted, the pattern of the storm could change significantly. There is no mention today of the possible evolution of the shear, but yesterday the forecasters were expecting the shear to diminish and shift to southeasterly. IF that happens, the shear will push the heavy weather into the NW quadrant of the storm, which of course will be the quadrant over Florida. If that pattern does emerge, Thursday is likely to be a very wet day in VB and WDW.

When you read the detail of the 11 AM advisories, it is VERY clear that the NHC is not able to tell what this storm is going to do. It's been a very erratic storm from the start, and the factors which usually influence track and intensity are simply in flux and there's no way to tell what's going to happen until something starts happening.

Whatever happens, Hanna should be out of our way by Friday afternoon.

Then all we'll have to worry about are Tropical Storms Ike and Josephine!

 

[Fatalbie]

Thanks for the updates. We will be there 6-13 and it looks as though things are a bit dicey for the next week or so. Keep the info coming it is much appreciated.