Tropical Storm Bonnie - final update in Post #9

[JimMIA]

Just a quick heads-up -- it's that season again!

There is a tropical wave (designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center) located between Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) and Puerto Rico, moving NNW at 10 Kts. Conditions are favorable for development and the NHC sets the probability of development into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Bonnie at 60%.

The latest computer models show this storm reaching Florida on Friday. The model tracks vary quite a bit, but my bet would be West Palm Beach or a little north, and probably exiting Florida a little north of Tampa. Obviously, if that proves correct, Friday will be a crummy day at both Vero Beach and WDW.

The intensity forecasts vary quite a bit. A couple of them say minimal Tropical Storm (39 Kt = about 45 MPH) and one says a stronger TS approaching 70 MPH. It seems unlikely this will develop into a hurricane.

If the system goes where I expect, it will be a pretty nasty day at VB on Friday with stiff winds and really rough seas. Much less impact at WDW, although if I were there I'd be planning for a windy, rainy day.

I wouldn't get too excited over this system , but if you are going to be at VB or WDW on Friday (or flying in), I'd keep an eye on it.

If you are concerned, turn OFF cable TV (especially the Weather Channel) and go to either www.nhc.noaa.gov , the National Hurricane Center's excellent site, or to www.wunderground.com/tropical , Weather Underground's excellent site. Either of those sites will give you accurate info with no Viagra-selling hype.

 

[Lost in Neverland]

Love the advice about The Weather Chanel. Too much hype.

 

[JimMIA]

Yeah, my son-in-law does movie production work, but since he lives here in Miami if he's not working on a movie he often gets called by the TV stations during hurricanes.

One year, they were expecting a hurricane to come ashore north of Tampa and a lot of the TV crews headed up there. It came in way south. So here were all these TV crews with nothing to report. The Weather Channel got a wind machine from an Orlando prop house and set it up to make their shot more dramatic. Unfortunately, the cameraman panned the wrong way during a live shot and got the wind machine in the picture -- blowing the reporters hair and raingear wildly as he breathlessly described the horrible storm!

Live TV can be pretty unforgiving!

 

[Brian Noble]

Sweet! We're flying in on Friday.

If you are concerned, turn OFF cable TV (especially the Weather Channel)

You mean the "Floods, Plague, Locusts" channel?

 

[JimMIA]

This system got beaten up by the mountains of the Dominican Republic and is now rather disorganized. The scheduled Tuesday hurricane hunter flight was postponed to today, and has been postponed again to tomorrow because there is not much to look at. The NHC has also lowered the probability of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours to 50%.

Because of atmospheric conditions, the system is not likely to gain much strength tomorrow as it moves over the eastern Bahamas. It's hard to predict, but it is possible the system could develop into a Tropical Storm between the western Bahamas and Florida.

Florida landfall is currently projected for Thursday night/Friday morning and the models are widely scattered as to where (NHC says Miami to Cape Canaveral, so throw a dart at the map!). FWIW, the models I like still say north of West Palm Beach, but until the storm actually organizes more it will be difficult to predict.

The system is still predicted to move NW across Florida and exit into the Gulf of Mexico around or north of Tampa on Saturday.

So Friday is looking like a wet day for WDW and Vero, and also possibly Saturday AM.

Still nothing to worry about.

 

[njtinkmom]

This system got beaten up by the mountains of the Dominican Republic and is now rather disorganized. The scheduled Tuesday hurricane hunter flight was postponed to today, and has been postponed again to tomorrow because there is not much to look at. The NHC has also lowered the probability of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours to 50%.

Because of atmospheric conditions, the system is not likely to gain much strength tomorrow as it moves over the eastern Bahamas. It's hard to predict, but it is possible the system could develop into a Tropical Storm between the western Bahamas and Florida.

Florida landfall is currently projected for Thursday night/Friday morning and the models are widely scattered as to where (NHC says Miami to Cape Canaveral, so throw a dart at the map!). FWIW, the models I like still say north of West Palm Beach, but until the storm actually organizes more it will be difficult to predict.

The system is still predicted to move NW across Florida and exit into the Gulf of Mexico around or north of Tampa on Saturday.

So Friday is looking like a wet day for WDW and Vero, and also possibly Saturday AM.

Still nothing to worry about.

Thanks for the info! I am flying in to WDW on Saturday afternoon arrival at 2:30 p.m. coming from NJ. Hope I miss this mess!!

 

[JimMIA]

Actually, I'm waiting for confirmation later in the day, but the models I looked at this morning show a complete change of direction which would take the system south of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.

It may be a non-event, but it's still not well-organized and that makes predictions very tough.

 

[JimMIA]

NHC has issued a special outlook advisory saying this system has intensified a little and has developed closed circulation.

The 11 AM advisory will upgrade the system, probably to Tropical Storm Bonnie If so, it will be a minimal tropical storm and is not likely to intensify much in the next couple of days. We're expecting Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for South Florida at 11 AM.

The current path looks like it will take the system somewhere between Miami and the north coast of Cuba, with the Florida Keys being right in the crosshairs. As the system matures, the path will become less difficult to predict.

That's good news for folks at VB and WDW -- not so good for us here in South Florida, but something we are used to. If the path looks like it's going to stay like this, I'll post a final update this afternoon.

 

[JimMIA]

This will be my final update unless something changes pretty dramatically.

The system is now Tropical Depression #3, and will probably be upgraded to Tropical Storm Bonnie tonight or Friday morning.

TD #3 is currently centered in the southern Bahamas, north of the east end of Cuba. The projected track is through the middle and lower Florida Keys on Friday, passing into the Gulf of Mexico on a WNW heading Friday night.

It's important to remember that tropical weather systems are broad areas of disturbed weather, not pinpoints on a map, so the effects of the system will probably be felt everywhere south of Lake Okeechobee.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern tip of Florida and the Florida Keys.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Golden Beach (Miami-Dade County) to Jupiter Inlet (just a little south of VB) and Lake Okeechobee.

Looks like Friday will be a wet, blustery day, but not much more. Impact on WDW should be less, although it might be rainy.

 

[lulu2]

Thanks, we have been watching your information as we arrive on Saturday.

 

[JimMIA]

Just so you know, TD#3 has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bonnie. That means the cable TV folks will start really hyping it, but it will be a non-event for VB and OKW.

For comparison, we are under Tropical Storm Warning scared1 here in Miami -- 200+ miles south of WDW.

Our forecast for tomorrow is 80% chance of rain with thunderstorms and 26 MPH winds. We get more wind than that from random thunderstorms!

 

[FunFive]

Thanks for the updates! It's nice to have the real scoop over the dramatized TV version.

 

[Deb & Bill]

We'll be waiting for the rest of Bonnie tomorrow through Monday in Louisiana. Hope she won't gain strength as she goes across the Gulf.

 

[JimMIA]

We'll be waiting for the rest of Bonnie tomorrow through Monday in Louisiana. Hope she won't gain strength as she goes across the Gulf.

Well, she's going to probably regain some strength. She is a Tropical Depression again now and in an area where atmospneric conditions are not conducive to strengthening. However, during the day tomorrow the system will enter better conditions and is expected to be a Tropical Storm again tomorrow afternoon.

This system has never been well organized, and it's moving fairly quickly, so it could just fall apart.

But if you look at the projected track, the projected TS strength winds, and the oil trajectories from Mississippi Canyon 252, it's an ugly picture.

Hopefully Bonnie will degrade and not have much of a surge (they're only predicting 1-2 feet) and won't do much further harm.