Tropical Depression Number 12 aka KARL

[HumanCookie]

And yet another one coming


WTNT32 KNHC 162043
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 16 2004

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN
THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 32.8 WEST OR ABOUT
670 MILES...1080 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 32.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[Kalypso]

UGH!!! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...I cannot move the 9/30 cruise!!!

 

[HumanCookie]

Your cruise will be fine (HOPE).

Boy, if pours it pours.

Mother Nature is busy producing Tropical Depressions.

 

[CM_Mom]

The good part about 12 is that the 5 day forecast shows it hooking north out of our way!

GO NORTH GO NORTH GO NORTH

 

[HumanCookie]

Too early to tell.

Remember, KARL has a mind of its own like his siblings IVAN and JEANNE.

 

[qofhearts]

I was just joking with my husband, it is his bday next week while we are on the 9/18 cruise and his name is dum dum KARL! Ha!

He can be like a tropical depression sometimes!

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

He's a Tropical Storm now--

But he is forecast to take a 90 degree turn north and that is in the 3 day forecast--no islands on the cruise itinerary in his way

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 170829
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2004

...KARL GETTING STRONGER...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST OR ABOUT 820
MILES...1320 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A MOTION TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL HAS BEEN GETTING STRONGER DURING THE EVENING AND MAY
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...11.5 N... 35.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT42 KNHC 170830
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KARL IS STRENGTHENING
RATHER QUICKLY. THE SYSTEM HAS A CDO FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER AND A
NICE BAND WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE WEST SIDE INTO THE CDO. THERE
IS SUPERB OUTFLOW TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTH. ALSO...THE SSTS AT
THESE LATITUDES REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES IN MID-SEPTEMBER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. AN
OBJECTIVE ODT CALCULATED A 77 KT WIND SPEED. THE SUM OF THIS
INFORMATION IS THE BASIS FOR BRINGING THE SYSTEM UP TO 55 KTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14. ALMOST NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE
LAST PACKAGE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD...TO VARYING DEGREES...AND
WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. THIS ALLOWS THE CYCLONE
TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS SHIPS WANT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM
A HURRICANE RATHER QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY IT TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO
WITH THE SHIPS FORECAST WEIGHTED IN THE EARLY GOING...THUS MAKING
THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

 

[Miss Jasmine]

HumanCookie, again what's the point? You keep just posting the advisories and discussions. Karl, most likely, is just going to hang out in the Atlantic and mess with the fish. That's it. Before you start scaring everyone, do a little more research. It's very aggravating.

Sorry, but the constant "spamming" of advisories and discussions is getting on my nerves. May I suggest you check out this site so you KNOW what you are posting about... http://image3.flhurricane.com/

 

[adelle]

Actually, I like seeing the information about the tropical storms and hurricanes so I know what is going on. I'm on the disboard anyway and this way I don't have to go to another site to get the info. We sail on the Magic October 2nd so it is all of interest right now. If no interest, don't read the posts.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

My point is that some of these posts may be causing undue stress. Also some people may not get what the advisories and discussions mean without other backup, such as models, forecasted tracks, etc.

From reading those discussions and advisories, did you know Karl would most likely be hanging in the Atlantic?

Believe me, these hurricanes are of the GREATEST importance to me right now. It's not about a vacation, it's about everything we have worked hard for.

 

[BambiRumsey]

I kind of like seeing the information too

We are on the Magic starting tomorrow and the forecast path cone thingy I have been seeing on the weather channel leads me to believe that Karl WILL impact our planned Eastern caribbean route, not to mention undo whatever rebuilding they have done at CC.

Threads like this are a good way to get the news in one place and discuss/speculate itinerary changes that may or may not take place as a result.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I started this with Frances ( I think)--I was the one who mostly updated that thread.

Yes hurricane season is getting old--and with the exception of Karl--most of these are interfering with the plans.

From what I see, there are various sights that post info on hurricanes--and the advisories and discussions have been pasted over here--these are not opinions of what the storm will do, but actual text stating what they are doing. I think you making the statement that they should get their facts straight was a bit harsh. Appreciate that it is posted as a separate thread. If it annoys you Miss Jasmine, then do not read them.

Not everyone is from our state and have access to regular hurricane updates with each newscast. Not everyone is computer savvy to go and look around for the latest information. They are very pertinent to cruising and the last 3 hurricanes have greatly impacted DCL and other cruise line schedules.

Yes it is causing stress--but so do lots of other things pertaining to vacation planning and sometimes people like to cope on the Disboards--if the mods don't have an issue--then you shouldn't either! Heck, I wasn't even cruising and I was talking about Frances b/c I had lots of info to offer about it based on what we are hearing that others might be able to use here.

I clicked on your link and it did not work--did you have a typo or anything?

 

[disneyfan73]

This one looks to stay out to sea....

 

[allears]

hummancookie, you just keep on posting. And missjasmine, don't open the tread.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

I just didn't want people to be worried or upset over something they shouldn't be upset or worried over.

This reminds me of the SARS scare in Toronto.

Lisa loves pooh, sometimes the site is down because of all the hits. Here is the site again, just in case: http://image3.flhurricane.com/

And some other places that are great:
http://www.wunderground.com/
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

and here's locally (closest to the port):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/

 

[LetsgoDisney!]

I have to agree that I'm glad HumanCookie is posting the info so that I don't have to go to different sites. I don't think the postings were meant to scare anyone but rather to share the latest information. If it's extremely important to us, we would also be watching the news reports etc. Forecasts of the tracking (as we've all seen w/ Ivan) can change.

The site suggested isn't an official one either-"CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE CENTER 2004. A Weather Enthusiast Run Site Focusing on East Central Florida and the Entire Atlantic Hurricane Basin since 1995. CFHC is NOT an official weather source, please only use us as a supplement to official weather outlets."

While many of us may be interested in changes to our long awaited vacations or cruises and we check on the weather forecasts periodically, we can only imagine what the people living in Florida are dealing with and the stress you are enduring- I'm sure you're sick of hearing the word hurricaine!

Hopefully Jeanne will fall apart, Karl will go out to sea and they'll dry up for the rest of the season!!

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Nah, Lisa is right around the corner.

 

[delo4]

I appreciate the hurricane updates. Its nice not having to jump to another site. The nice thing about these boards is that you can read the threads you like, or not! No reason to be mean to the person who posts what they think is helpful information.