Trend Line on Resale Prices

[bwbuddy5]

Have any of you who are so great at analysis considered trending how each resort's resale price has changed over the years, for forecasting? I know there are a lot of non-DVC owners that frequent these boards, who may not be buying in 2015, but may consider buying in a future year and wouldn't mind "guesstimating" what the price may be over each of the next 5 years or so.

 

[DVC Doctor]

In my experience, from 1991-2006 the resales were about 15-20% below Disney prices

From 2008-2013 the market crashed and 50% or more below Disney was common

From 2014 to present the trend has been strongly up.

I created a thread with current prices last week and it is on this subforum

 

[suebeelin]

Just curious... What were the prices on 2006-2008?

 

[RobbW]

I only just started tracking DVC resales since I'm currently in ROFR on my first purchase attempt. So, my data only goes back maybe 5-6 months at most. DVC Doctor definitely has the goods on long-term analysis!!!

 

[freediverdude]

I have a feeling that except for the beach resorts, it's going to go back to 15-20% less than Disney.

 

[DVC Doctor]

Just curious... What were the prices on 2006-2008?

I have been buying and selling (a few) DVC contracts from Disney and resale since 2001 and can only post about my experience.

I originally bought at VLW and never used the 8-11 month booking window, so when SSR was offered new with a longer RTU and lower dues, I sold all my VWL and bought SSR. I have also bought BLT and VGF from Disney and have been happy with those.

I bought my first resale in 2012 and then again in 2013 and 2014 and those were incredible bargains - often 50% or more discount from Disney prices.

To specifically answer your question, in 2006-2008 Disney was selling SSR for $86-91pp but those contracts included one year of points for free. The resale market was selling SSR (once they hit the market) for only 15% or so less and generally did not have points for immediate use so there was no immediate reason to buy resale. Also Disney let you put the entire purchase on credit cards.

Once the recession hit in 2009, the priced dropped like a rock and FINALLY started to go up in 2014 and really go up in 2015.

I guess I am spoiled at the bargains I bought in 2012-2013 but happy to see the resale market improve to current conditions.

 

[crisi]

In 2002 we bought BWV at a 25% discount from Disney's prices for the current resort (BCV), but the contract was stripped and it was still in the wake of 9/11 so pricing was suppressed.

 

[BeachClub2014]

It sure looks like the short term trend is going up, and in a hurry, on some of the resorts. I recently purchased (closed June 30th) a 200 point BWV that was loaded. It was listed at $87 which was in the range of listings at the time. I got it for $80. I am seeing nearly all BWV listing north of $100 now, with some north of $110. Pretty big spike in just a few months.

 

[Minniesgal]

I think this is a definite case where the rule past performance is not an indication of the future holds true.

Resale prices are definitely linked to recession. So predicting the future is tied to the economic performance of the major world economies