Travel disruption -- Hurricane Isaias

[JimMIA]

This system is not actually a tropical storm yet, but it will be soon.

Three things to note:

1. It's too early yet to guess where this system is actually going to go.
2. Although it's only projected to reach tropical storm strength (not hurricane), that's plenty to mess up travel plans. Airlines reposition their aircraft and crews well ahead of the arrival of tropical storm conditions.
3. This system is moving 20-25 mph, which is roughly double normal speed -- so whatever effects Florida gets will come sooner, rather than later. The current projection is for TS force winds in SE Florida as early as Friday night.

Here's the NHC "cone of uncertainty" map. FWIW, the computer models show the storm tracking to the right of this official forecast track.

 

[JimMIA]

Just a quick non-update. This system has not yet developed into a tropical storm. It has tropical storm winds, but does not have closed circulation or a well-defined center.

The path is very uncertain this morning, and will remain so until the system organizes. The current path is slightly to the left of what is shown above, which is south and would take the system over the mountains of the island of Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) on Thursday, then across eastern Cuba (also mountainous). If the system survives those mountains, the path takes it through the Florida Keys and up the Gulf Coast of Florida.

But all of that is extraordinarily uncertain. There is also now a wide divergence in computer models. The system is just not well-organized enough to make many predictions beyond 36 hours or so.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

Suppose to form by the end of today so make sure if you are going to WDW you have poncho to wear. The stores at WDW have to limit the number of people in them so finding shelter can be a challenge .

 

[JimMIA]

Another kind of non-update -- because the truth is nobody knows IF this system will develop; if so, what will it be; where will it go; or what will the intensity be!

That said, there's a good chance whatever this thing turns out to be WILL disrupt air travel to Florida over the next several days. Here is the expected arrival of tropical storm winds from the latest advisory. No matter where the thing goes, it's clear we will have enough wind through this weekend to mess things up.

And, as you can see, it's not just Florida. Saturday evening/night, likely significant winds in Atlanta -- a major hub.

 

[JimMIA]

Here's the latest tracking and wind information from the 5 PM Thursday advisory. Isaias is a Tropical Storm now, and is expected to intensify to a Category 1 Hurricane as it approaches Florida and moves along the east coast.



As you can see from the wind chart below, Isaias has the potential to disrupt air travel all the way up the coast to Boston.