TouringPlans emailed me to update crowd calendar

[nfceagles]

I think I can see part of the cause for your observations. Your spreadsheet shows numbers with decimal points, which means it would have been data from Crowd Calendar 2.0. It was just about this time that the guys updated the system to Crowd Calendar 4.0, which does not have decimals.

This change automatically changed data almost every day. The numbers between the two calendars are not directly comparable. With the new calendar, there will be very few 1s, not many 2s, and a lot fewer 9s and 10s. Another aspect of the new calendar is that there are expected to be fewer significant updates as dates get closer.

Looking at the second set of numbers, the predictions were pretty darn close.

I've never heard these terms Crowd Calendar 2.0 and 4.0. Are those Touring Plans names for their prediction models? If the newer model will have fewer 1s,2s,9s, and 10s, does that mean they aren't percentile-based anymore. I always thought 10% of days would be 1s, 10% would be 2s and so on. The rolling nature of a calendar and changing predictions would cause that to not be perfectly true, but I thought theoretically each crowd level should be seen on about 10% of a year's days.

 

[FutureMayor]

Ok I have to ask why would people pay to get the same info you can find easily all over the place online?

The better question is why people would offer that information for free. Touring Plans (for disclosure I am a subscriber) has their own data going back to the 90s. The methods of calculating crowds on a specific day take into account what the perceived crowd level is (as submitted by users) coupled with data collected from the parks regarding wait times. Your own experience could vary greatly based on your own decisions. If you choose to visit very popular attractions at busy times in the park, then your perception of the crowd level will be higher.

My personal reason for subscribing to the service is access not only to crowd levels, but to the data you have access to that drives the crowd level. I like to see forecast wait times for rides at various times during the day. I also like to see posted vs actual times in real time. Both of these have value to me beyond the predicted crowd level.

 

[DividedSky]

Ok I have to ask why would people pay to get the same info you can find easily all over the place online?

tell me what the wait time for Test Track was at noon the last 3 years on the saturday of presidents day weekend.

I don't think finding this info is all that easy.

 

[ptcbass]

I love that there are places that try to predict crowds based on past history but Disney does manage to throw a wrench in things when they do things like offer a "Spring Promo". Before that things looked to be right on with the predictions but now rooms are sold out and ADR's are hard to get. Yep, I would say that threw all the numbers way off. I always wanted to go on a "off" week but now it looks to be more like a normal crowd week.
Oh well, we are still at Disney on vacation so we will still have fun.

The crowd predictors have their work cut out for them this year!

 

[2Tiggies]

The crowd predictors have their work cut out for them this year!

And then some!

 

[cigar95]

I've never heard these terms Crowd Calendar 2.0 and 4.0. Are those Touring Plans names for their prediction models? If the newer model will have fewer 1s,2s,9s, and 10s, does that mean they aren't percentile-based anymore. I always thought 10% of days would be 1s, 10% would be 2s and so on. The rolling nature of a calendar and changing predictions would cause that to not be perfectly true, but I thought theoretically each crowd level should be seen on about 10% of a year's days.

You're understanding correctly - with CC2.0, the numbers represented deciles, so that there would be nominally an equal number of 1s, 2s, 3s, and so on.

At one point, Len and the guys realized that wait times themselves are not distributed uniformly - most often they aren't that far from the norm. This led to the development of CC4.0. (Yes, there was a CC3, but it was never mature enough to see the light of day - sorta like Apple's Copelan operating system.)

So now, each increment in the calendar level *kinda/sorta* represents an equal increment in wait times, rather than in frequency. An increase of 1 in the level corresponds to an increase in some number of minutes in the predicted wait time. (This number will differ from attraction to attraction, and is based on the wait times during the peak hours in the middle of the day.)

And they will state over and over that the levels represent wait times rather than number of people in the park. This is why the crowd levels at certain special events like food & wine don't impact the crowd levels as much as one might expect.

 

[jvattes]

Ok I have to ask why would people pay to get the same info you can find easily all over the place online?

Because using them last time resulted in an A+ trip. And it's $12 - I think I can swing it

 

[Belle5]

Ok I have to ask why would people pay to get the same info you can find easily all over the place online?

You might not need to pay for this service, but let me tell you why I do. Background: 30 family vacations to WDW, I have been on these boards since Nov. 1999. I am not someone you would think would need to pay for any of this information, at this point.

I planned a trip for my senior citizen parents (who will be at WDW next week) using touring plans. I customized the plans for slow paced walking, etc. I plugged in all the attractions they wanted to see and touringplans gave me a suggested plan with suggested FPs times. I went over to the MDE site and found those FP+ times that had been suggested. Went back over to touring plans and plugged my FP+ times into the program. Oh, before that I plugged in restaurants and times including any ADRs, 3 hour nap times, etc...

I printed my parents custom made plans based on their touring style. They should not be overwhelmed by all the changes with FP+ or anything else because this plan tells them when to go where to maximize the time in their day. I can't wait to do this for our own December trip. Touringplans has made it so easy to see everything we want and maximize the time left to relax at the resort pool and have great time OUT of the parks. That is why I subscribe!

 

[dreamseeker9]

Being an almost obsessive planner, I love creating touring plans, evaluating and optimizing them on TouringPlans. It's worth it to me to pay a minimal annual fee for that.

My dates were also updated, March 30 - April 3, 2014. The good news is that some park levels went down; the bad news is that MK went up to a 7 for every single day. I'll make the best of it!