Touring Plans historical crowds

[MacMama0930]

I subscribe to touring plans and utilize their historical data quite often when preparing for my trips. A while back they changed the way they rated the crowds, because the crowds have seen such significant increases the last few years that there were a lot of 10s! But it appears that they finally went back and changed past historical times. The week I went in October was originally 9s and 10s, and now have been changed to 6s, 7s and 8s. (I'd really hate to see a true 10 then because it was really busy that week!).

Then I looked around at July, since I was thinking about doing something for my daughter who's birthday is July 2nd, and it showed last year that the 4th was DL was a 3 and DCA was a 2. I thought the 4th was a huge crowd day at the parks?! Can that possibly be correct? Especially since it was on a Monday, lots of long weekend type guests. I was confused by that one!

I took a look at the last week since I've seen so many people comment about the crowds; most days so far in April are 7s - 9s, but no 10s yet. I wonder if 10s will be saved for capacity days? Interestingly, DCA has had the higher number all days, too, which it's normally Disneyland.

Just some interesting info...

 

[Traver Freeman]

The summer is blackout time for the lower AP holders like myself. Which means we all go on a Disney-fast for two months. And since DL is mostly an annual passholder park, you actually will see lower crowds in the summer than you would at WDW. However, how that impacts July 4th, I do not know. I have never gone on that date.

April is a very busy time for DL. Spring breaks, warmer temps, nicer days, Easter holidays, etc. Plus annual passholders are out in full during that time.

DCA is typically far less crowded than DL. Just my opinion. Sometimes the crowds are stifling on an average day at DL if you're walking around Adventureland and sometimes Fantasyland, but mostly Adventureland. DCA is pretty spread out with their walkways, so it doesn't feel too bad. Crowd levels haven't been bad over there in my opinion either.

I don't pay attention to touring plans or their numbers, so I honestly can't tell you what a 5 feels like or a 10. We just go once a month, typically on a Thursday or Wednesday as those tend to be the least crowded days. We went on a Friday once, never again.

 

[PaintsWithAllTheColors]

I know this is the farthest thing from helpful, but I thought I'd give you a heads up that Touring Plans might not be super accurate this year. There have been a lot of wrong predictions with TouringPlans crowd levels this year. According to an interview I heard from Len Testa (part of the TouringPlans team) this is due to a lot of factors, including the return of the Main Street Electrical Parade, the Remember...Dreams do Come True fireworks, the special deal on tickets for residents, to name a few. Of course, this might have been corrected by July but just wanted you to be aware!

 

[DDhunter]

I have been on 4 different trips on July 4th. The only time it was crowded was when it fell on a Saturday. Otherwise it wasn't too bad. However, I am actually really surprised they expect the next two years to be busy. I was thinking people would put off a big trip until after SWL opens. I guess it was wishful thinking though. I'm hoping that since my trip is the first part of August and everyone is blocked out but the top 2 passes that it won't be too bad.

 

[tarheelalum]

Don't put much faith in Touring Plans. They are wrong far more than they are right.

 

[TexasGalHolden]

Don't put much faith in Touring Plans. They are wrong far more than they are right.

Would you say the same for RideMax? I bought both and have been playing with them both -- two totally different outcomes. The touring plans LINES app is awesome and it's what was making me lean towards using TP on our trip but I might decide otherwise and use the RideMax plans instead.... ??

 

[mom2rtk]

If it seems too good to be true, then go with your instincts. There is no way I would go over July 4th expecting anything near a 2 or 3. Sure, the APs might be blocked, by why are they blocked? Because they are expecting high crowds.

 

[SMD]

I wonder if when they back filled historical dates after reconfiguring their numbers If they used formulas like "first Monday in July" rather than Fourth of July. I guess I could see it being pretty light (comparatively) when the 4th is on a Thursday. Or the first Monday could be as late as the 7th. But there would still have to be a pretty big difference between a 1 and 3 on their scale for that to be a major factor.

 

[MacMama0930]

Thanks for the input everyone. I'm assuming they do a pretty epic firework show on the 4th? We are actually going to Great Wolf Lodge (no park days) that weekend (June 30th - July 2nd) and I thought it would be fun to extend the trip a bit and catch a good fireworks show at the parks. But I doubt my husband will go for it!

 

[SMD]

There are a couple of places that do their fireworks before the 4th. The Hollywood Bowl is one that usually does a few shows with them before the 4th.

 

[lcp9]

I tend to at least look at touring plans when we're planning a trip, knowing that it could be totally wrong, and honestly it's ended up being +/- 1 (according to the data they collect in the parks) 95% of the time. We have also visited at wildly different ends of the crowd spectrum, and I feel like I have a decent idea of what to expect on a TP 2 day vs a 10 day.

Anyway, my point is I have personally found it to be a good ballpark resource - we tend to avoid times where all week it's 7+, but those are also pretty predictable (Spring Break, Christmas, halloween, fall break, etc.) that 4th of July is kind of surprising, but we are anti-summer at Disney type of people.

they did go back at the end of last year and recalibrate all of their data - the new 3 used to be a 5, or whatever. Just that many more people I guess.

Also, I agree that bringing back MSEP probably has changed some things, and I haven't been since it started up.

 

[Winnowill]

TP just "updated" the crowd predictions for our dates (next week) - now, they're solid 9s, where before they were 8s and 9s. Yippie. I haven't gone back and reviewed revised numbers for our past visits - I should do that.

 

[dshimel]

The problem with sites like that is that their predictions can actually alter reality.

Everyone is looking for a "less crowded" time to go. Sites predict light crowds, everyone goes, and suddenly it is super crowded. They predict heavy crowds, people stay away, and it isn't as crowded as predicted.

It is similar on their plans on which rides to ride first. If you are front of the pack, sure, follow their plan. Walk in the gate 15 or 20 mins behind the pack, better not follow their plan, because everyone else is and is ahead of you in all the lines.