Touring Plans Crowd after shutdown speculation

[Lumpy1106]

I got a couple of e-mails from Touring Plans this week about my first-week-in August trip. I was surprised that they expected the crowds to spike during that time. They later sent a second e-mail and backed off that estimate a little, but still expect the crowds to go up unless the parks don't open until July. Here's their blog post on the crowd expectations. I don't know about you, but I really expected crowds to go down in the near term, maybe even through the next year. Reason being, people (not DIS people, regular people) will be reluctant to travel for a while and will also be taking a financial hit, not to mention a hit to their PTO balances. Add to that the large number of International visitors WDW sees - Europe is taking a much bigger hit than the US is. I just don't see Domestic air travel being 100%, let alone International travel, anytime soon.

So, all fun and games speculation now, what are your thoughts? Is TP's reasoning right?

 

[Deploraboo]

speculation but they’re likely using a haircut against their existing algo methodology. Truth is, no one knows, but would def expect a lower number than typical August levels, imho.

 

[DisneyWishes14]

I got some TP e-mails as well. I just deleted them. This is unprecedented. How could they possibly know what the crowd levels will be?

 

[SaintsManiac]

I got some TP e-mails as well. I just deleted them. This is unprecedented. How could they possibly know what the crowd levels will be?

They didn't know before!

 

[glocon]

Agree, unprecedented, but people like to hear what others think, especially if those people have an understanding of how things work there.
There’s just no telling how the world as a whole will react to the pandemic. Some people are scared, some still scoff at it, some now have much less disposable income and/or pto. There really is just no way to know.
I can’t wait to see wdw come back.

 

[sleepymouse]

Here’s my comment to TP’s reasoning that I posted in their comment section:

Though I love the crowd calendars, what is happening now is completely uncharted territory. I think the crowds levels should have remained untouched because nobody even knows when the parks will reopen. And when they do, you will have pent-up demand but also a massive recession. Just an email with general information seems more appropriate.

 

[SarahC97]

Honestly, I'm not a big believer in crowd predictions anyway. I appreciate TPs methods, but they've still led me astray more than once, so I don't put much stock in them.

IMHO, I don't think we'll see a huge surge in crowds until Fall (if there's not a resurgence in COVID-19 cases that impacts the parks again). This summer, if the parks are even open, I would assume it wouldn't be as crowded as it normally is since so many people will still be dealing with things after shutdowns. Plus, I sincerely doubt international travel will be up and running as it was before COVID-19 by this summer. I mean, it's all speculation at this point, but when you compare it with other significant events such as 9/11, I don't see how they can say that a crowd surge is coming so soon after possible park opening. But then again, I'm no expert.

 

[kylenne]

They didn't know before!

Lol for real. At the best of times it was like reading tea leaves and I basically ignored them, only subscribing for the Lines app. Now? Preposterous.

I also think everyone, including a lot of folk here on these boards, is severely underestimating the economic impact this will have long after the immediate threat to health is over. Luxury vacations are the first things to fall by the wayside in hard times. A lot of people who were already on the bubble of being priced out with these latest hikes will stay away, I think, barring some serious incentives on Disney‘s part.

 

[cgattis]

Man, I haven’t even read the predictions, but I feel compelled to jump in here and say something nice about Touring Plans! Obviously they are making guesses (predictions); I don’t think they claim to have a crystal ball. Undercover Tourist gets lot of love here...the Touring Plans folks are the same kinds of guys. The love the parks, the built a business out of it, and the offer great customer service. Are they always right? No! But they used to be pretty dang good!! But IMO their job is much harder now that Disney is working so hard to keep the park attendance more level all year AND being way more reactive with staffing (y’all know they’re way quicker to cut capacity now to save a buck...). So anyway, will they be right? Who knows? But I truly don’t think if you met them in line or at the bar in a park, you’d be as harsh with your critiques. They’re pretty good guys.

 

[kylenne]

Man, I haven’t even read the predictions, but I feel compelled to jump in here and say something nice about Touring Plans! Obviously they are making guesses (predictions); I don’t think they claim to have a crystal ball. Undercover Tourist gets lot of love here...the Touring Plans folks are the same kinds of guys. The love the parks, the built a business out of it, and the offer great customer service. Are they always right? No! But they used to be pretty dang good!! But IMO their job is much harder now that Disney is working so hard to keep the park attendance more level all year AND being way more reactive with staffing (y’all know they’re way quicker to cut capacity now to save a buck...). So anyway, will they be right? Who knows? But I truly don’t think if you met them in line or at the bar in a park, you’d be as harsh with your critiques. They’re pretty good guys.

Nobody in this thread was personally attacking them as people lol

 

[StageTek]

But I truly don’t think if you met them in line or at the bar in a park, you’d be as harsh with your critiques. They’re pretty good guys.

I don't believe that either. And I don't believe anyone here is being harsh. SaintsManiac made the comment with a wink and a smile.

I love using Touring Plans. I think their methodology is sound. But there is no way they can even estimate the crowds in the first week of August. They have nothing to compare to. And I would say that if I any of them in line or at the bar in a park. I bet it would make a lively, interesting conversation.

 

[figmentfinesse]

I can’t pretend like the numbers didn’t shock me though. Im Aug 12-21 and they’re predicting 9s most days. I really enjoyed the medium crowds last year during the same dates...here’s hoping for at least a somewhat similar amount

 

[cgattis]

Fair enough. It definitely doesn’t seem as harsh upon re-reading. Maybe it was just my pent-up frustration with another damn kale salad for lunch Curse you coronavirus and your removing my excuses for not eating healthy and exercising!

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

I think 9/11 is a very good comparison. I don’t know that TP has much data from that long ago but if they did, I think that would be similar data to use to tweak the model. Sudden disruption, the airline industries shutting down for a short period of time (with people not wanting to fly for a longer time after that), and recession going on in the background.

 

[Donzie]

Ah, it seems like the old days here. Arguing (or should I say intelligently and articulately discussing) crowd calendars and their reliability, particularly as it pertains to your vacation timeframe. This site says crowds are a 9 and this one says 6, what do you think? Pre event - this is what we used to do on the DIS. Lol.

 

[Dallasmomoftwo]

I would not be surprised if the crowds were heavier then usual in August because many people missed their spring break trips and more will likely miss their Easter trips. I think most of them will re-schedule at some point and for those of us with kids in school, it is easier to do it over the summer instead of taking them out of school.

 

[Nebraska_Disney]

Everyone is assuming that that travel industry will snap their fingers and all will be well again. You may see properties never recover from this and shutter the doors. You may see a long time for the airlines to build back up to capacity. International travel is a crap shoot at best. As far at TP goes (pun intended), if you pay for this service and are happy with it, no one is stopping you for doing so. Personally, these are uncharted waters and anything out to August is like throwing darts.

 

[Nebraska_Disney]

Bumping this up as I’d love to know what skilled projections touring plans came out with after today’s announcements