Touring Plans calendar looks BONKERS!

[SD33]

Can we talk about the Touring Plans Calendar for a second?

Seriously...what in the world!?

That thing is all over the map and seems to follow no rhyme or reason. Take August, for instance...I get that when annal pass holders are blocked the crowd predictions are lower. This is the general consensus--the collective wisdom, if you will. But why--WHY--would anyone ever predict that Disneyland would be a 2 at any point this Summer? And yet, it's predicted to be a 2 multiple times. And some of the weekends it's predicted to be a 2, it's predicted to be a 9 over at DCA. Why is everyone all of a sudden hanging out at DCA?? They don't have a SWGE at DCA! LOL

Does anyone think they could be right, or is this just some tomfoolery over there at the old crowd calendar site?

 

[SD33]

Let's break this down even further...

I averaged out all the crowd predictions for DL and DCA in August and DL has an average crowd prediction of 4.6 per day and DCA has an average crowd prediction of 7.1.

Does this not fly in the face of all of the conventional wisdom or are we really expecting Disneyland crowds to be lighter than California Adventure later this Summer???

 

[dieumeye]

Just goes to show that you can’t predict crowds with that much specificity at DL.

I have no idea how they come up with their numbers, but I’d guess what you’re seeing has something to do with some APs having access to DCA but not DL this summer. Does that really mean DCA will be more crowded? I doubt it, but who knows. Only time will tell what effect SW:GE and the split blockout have on both parks.

 

[SD33]

Just goes to show that you can’t predict crowds with that much specificity at DL.

I have no idea how they come up with their numbers, but I’d guess what you’re seeing has something to do with some APs having access to DCA but not DL this summer. Does that really mean DCA will be more crowded? I doubt it, but who knows. Only time will tell what effect SW:GE and the split blockout have on both parks.

Is that true though, that some APs will be blocked from one park and not another?

 

[BillFraser29]

It has been my experience (and many others as well) that touringplans is very DW centric and does not offer more than very basic DL touring expertise. Just one example I have seen and have heard from others is that their "Optimized" plan will recommend doing "Great Moments with Lincoln" at rope drop!

 

[dieumeye]

Is that true though, that some APs will be blocked from one park and not another?

Yep. The blockout dates for DL and DCA are not the same. You can check it out on the DL page. For example, Deluxe APs cannot visit DL on Fri, Sat, Sun in June... are blocked entirely in July... and are blocked entirely the first half of August. However, those Deluxe APs can access DCA every day in June, July, August.

 

[dieumeye]

It has been my experience (and many others as well) that touringplans is very DW centric and does not offer more than very basic DL touring expertise. Just one example I have seen and have heard from others is that their "Optimized" plan will recommend doing "Great Moments with Lincoln" at rope drop!

Optimized for Lincoln!™

 

[HydroGuy]

Sorry, but this old news. TP is not to be trusted at DLR. AT ALL!

See "Why I Am Skeptical of the Touring Plans Website DLR Crowd Calendar" - https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...ing-plans-website-dlr-crowd-calendar.3196851/

 

[SD33]

Sorry, but this old news. TP is not to be trusted at DLR. AT ALL!

See "Why I Am Skeptical of the Touring Plans Website DLR Crowd Calendar" - https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...ing-plans-website-dlr-crowd-calendar.3196851/

I’m not as cynical as you guys about them. Been using them for a decade or so at Disneyland and I’ve found them mostly reliable.

That being said, it isn’t any single daily prediction that interests me. It’s the overal theory that DCA will be more crowded than Disneyland on average this Summer.

Just watched the Touring Plans vlog where they discussed the SWGE is not factored into their numbers for crowd levels at Disneyland. In other words, if they say it will be a 5 at Disneyland they mean it will be a 5 everywhere but SWGE. SWGE should be a 10 all Summer according to them.

So if I had to venture an answer to my own question, perhaps it’s this:

SWGE sucks a large number of crowds into its orbit. These crowds leave the rest of DL a little more empty. Also, certain AP’s are blocked from DL so this reduces crowds. AND there will be those who avoid DL altogether, and thereby increase the crowds at DCA.

Is this their rationale, do you think? And is it a good theory?

 

[SD33]

Sorry, but this old news. TP is not to be trusted at DLR. AT ALL!

See "Why I Am Skeptical of the Touring Plans Website DLR Crowd Calendar" - https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...ing-plans-website-dlr-crowd-calendar.3196851/

Hydroguy, another question...who do you trust for crowd predictions if not TP? I’d be happy switching teams if there’s someone better.

 

[HydroGuy]

Hydroguy, another question...who do you trust for crowd predictions if not TP? I’d be happy switching teams if there’s someone better.

I trust myself at DLR. No one really knows any more - and TP never did IMO. I use the AP calendar for sure, check grad nights, events, parties (Halloween), etc. I check when special SoCal tickets are sold. And finally, I use MP and I do not worry about crowds that much.

 

[disneyland_is_magic]

Lol yes my plan did optimized for Lincoln. I will say I have had good success with the plans in the back of the book and I still recommend those to folks if they have no experience (and no desire to study and research). Much, much time is wasted with regrouping after each ride, looking at maps or asking everyone's opinions. Those wasted 5-10 minutes add up to hours by the end of the day. Be in motion as soon as you get off a ride!
I also think there is an element of finding something you didn't expect to enjoy by following a plan someone else wrote, we had a lovely lunch at the Golden Horseshoe that greatly re-energized us. But.... there are still too many variables.
I also highly recommend Hydroguy's thread. His discussion on what does 1-10 even mean is valid and a little bit funny too.

 

[SD33]

I trust myself at DLR. No one really knows any more - and TP never did IMO. I use the AP calendar for sure, check grad nights, events, parties (Halloween), etc. I check when special SoCal tickets are sold. And finally, I use MP and I do not worry about crowds that much.

Any good links for where to check on special events like grad nights, parties, etc.? This level of analysis is new to me, and I have come to trust your recommendations from the years I've spent hanging around this board. Also, how can I find out when special SoCal tickets are sold?

Teach me your ways, sir. I need to up my game.

 

[HydroGuy]

So if I had to venture an answer to my own question, perhaps it’s this:

SWGE sucks a large number of crowds into its orbit. These crowds leave the rest of DL a little more empty. Also, certain AP’s are blocked from DL so this reduces crowds. AND there will be those who avoid DL altogether, and thereby increase the crowds at DCA.

Is this their rationale, do you think? And is it a good theory?

No one really knows, so you are right, it is a guess. My guess is DCA will look mostly like normal. But Disney will try and get folks away from DL and they will use DCA to put people. Maybe extra WOC shows? Plus bring PTN back? Maybe longer park hours? So it will be a bit more crowded. But then once the DAP blockout comes in June and July, that will ease things up at DL which will impact DCA too a bit. So we are back to DCA looking like normal.

As for DL, it really depends on what happens with ROTR and how they handle access to SWGE over the longer term - reservations, FP, etc. If they keep reservations for a longer period, that will certainly control SWGE crowds but will also limit folks coming to DLR at all. Disney wants both. Lots of people coming to DLR, but not overwhelming crowds. So they are guessing on this too, I would expect. My guess is this summer will not be too bad until the DAPs and SCAPs come back (Aug 19 and Sept 3, respectively).

 

[HydroGuy]

Any good links for where to check on special events like grad nights, parties, etc.? This level of analysis is new to me, and I have come to trust your recommendations from the years I've spent hanging around this board. Also, how can I find out when special SoCal tickets are sold?

Teach me your ways, sir. I need to up my game.

"2019 Calendar of Events & School Breaks and DLR" https://www.disboards.com/threads/2019-calendar-of-events-school-breaks-and-dlr.3708938/

"The Scoop on Grad Nights at DLR in May and June" www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2298400

These two are old but I think there are updated ones somewhere...

HalloweenTime at DLR Superthread #4 (Sherry E)

Disneyland at Christmas/Holiday Season Superthread #5 (Sherry E)

 

[dieumeye]

My guess is this summer will not be too bad until the DAPs and SCAPs come back (Aug 19 and Sept 3, respectively).

I’m glad to hear you say this. I don’t know anything about anything, but my gut feeling based on what we know currently is that the summer isn’t going to be as bad as people say. Busy, but at least nowhere near the apocalyptic crowd levels of “at capacity every day by 10 AM“ ... “the park is ruined forever“ that some folks are insisting will be the case.

 

[DLgal]

Disneyland will never be a 2 on any summer day, ever. At best, while the Deluxe passholders are blocked out, it will likely be between 5-7 on average. There will be 8 and 9 here and there, but most days will be manageable.

I also believe, while SWGE will be packed every day, the rest of the park may actually be less crowded than previous summers. If the same number of people visit, but a bunch are tied up at SWGE, the rest of the park will be really nice.

DCA, on the other hand? 7-9s, consistently, all summer. Those Deluxe passholders (the ones who don't upgrade, anyway) WILL show up at DCA.

 

[HydroGuy]

Disneyland will never be a 2 on any summer day, ever. At best, while the Deluxe passholders are blocked out, it will likely be between 5-7 on average. There will be 8 and 9 here and there, but most days will be manageable.

I also believe, while SWGE will be packed every day, the rest of the park may actually be less crowded than previous summers. If the same number of people visit, but a bunch are tied up at SWGE, the rest of the park will be really nice.

DCA, on the other hand? 7-9s, consistently, all summer. Those Deluxe passholders (the ones who don't upgrade, anyway) WILL show up at DCA.

The local SoCal DAPs will come to DCA. The ones from out of state (like me) will postpone to August when the blockout lifts.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

"2019 Calendar of Events & School Breaks and DLR" https://www.disboards.com/threads/2019-calendar-of-events-school-breaks-and-dlr.3708938/

"The Scoop on Grad Nights at DLR in May and June" www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2298400

These two are old but I think there are updated ones somewhere...

HalloweenTime at DLR Superthread #4 (Sherry E)

Disneyland at Christmas/Holiday Season Superthread #5 (Sherry E)

Thank you for linking these threads. The information needed is readily available on this board: school breaks and conventions, Grad Nites, holiday seasons when they are made official -- see relevant superthreads (Halloween Time Superthread 2019 has already been started), references to the DLR AP Blockout Calendars (see DLR website), etc. Much of this info is linked in the stickies at the top of the first page of posts. There is so much free information available to anyone who cares to look!

 

[SD33]

"2019 Calendar of Events & School Breaks and DLR" https://www.disboards.com/threads/2019-calendar-of-events-school-breaks-and-dlr.3708938/

"The Scoop on Grad Nights at DLR in May and June" www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2298400

These two are old but I think there are updated ones somewhere...

HalloweenTime at DLR Superthread #4 (Sherry E)

Disneyland at Christmas/Holiday Season Superthread #5 (Sherry E)

Appreciate it, Hydroguy!