Too many people using crowd predictors?

[quagmire0]

Crowd calendars are just one piece of the puzzle, but I do agree that they have become fairly useless - if not counterproductive. Early ADRs, Rope Drop, and prioritizing high demand rides will have more impact on your enjoyment level. We used crowd calendars for our first two trips, and I really never paid attention to whether they were very accurate or not. Touringplans.com always releases results of how their calendars fared, and I can tell you that recently they haven't been doing very well. Way more days that were much higher than they anticipated. I don't think anyone really has their finger on the pulse yet. With Disney announcing that attendence at WDW was down and contradicting reports of crowd levels/waits being much higher, there's obviously something else at play here that someone hasn't pinned down yet.

 

[nilla]

not to mention the ability to use our paper FP's past the stated time window

Oh, man, we took FULL advantage of that! I remember hitting Soarin' after Illuminations using FPs that supposedly expired at 2:00 pm

We'd just get FPs right when we could get the next set, and if we used them, we used them. We used to come home with a stack of unused FPs.

 

[Accident]

I think the problem is how much is changing at disney and how they have extended or created special seasonal events now...

You can't really use past data to predict the future behavior when everything is in flux. Some people aren't coming and waiting for bigger openings. Other people are coming because of discounts. some might be able to see flower and garden or food and wine because it's longer and fits a week they are around. some are rushing down to see things 1 more time before they go away. others are rushing to experience new things happenign to their favorite parts of disney.. and then you have international recessions that are changing who can afford to come like brazil and australia..

In short. nobody knows what's going on in everyones head and there is no predictive model available for how much is changing at disney right now.. and when it's predicted by disney to be light, then it's time to flood out the discounts for those that can't afford the current price and get them in the empty seats...

disney has become really good at what it takes to get peopel to the parks. now we'll see if that can sustain with these ridiculous price adjustments..

 

[loves to dive]

I agree with others that there probably aren't as many people using them as you might think. I've never used them, I've glanced at them out of curiosity then just went where and when I was in the mood to go.

 

[PeasandCarrots]

I'm starting to feel this way too regarding the "most recommended". A big example is used to you avoided MK on Sat and Mon under the theory those are the 2 days of the week most people begin their vacations and they rush to MK on their first day. However, I have now found Sundays to "feel" just as crowded. Now it could be a lack of staffing, but they had as many security as humanly possible set up on both sides for bag check and I still waited 35 minutes in the bag check line to get into MK on a Sunday about 3 weeks ago and it was a most recommended day for MK. It was packed. That said, I think MK is now over-crowded relative to the other parks due to closed attractions/construction. I really hope when AK starts staying open later that will help a little. I think a lot of people are skipping one or all of the other parks and spending more time at MK.

It truly is starting to feel like it doesn't matter that much anymore. Just go where you want to go.

 

[MichiganScott]

Taking Touringplans.com into account, I believe they have a sound basis for their calculations and predictions. They base off actual empirical data of wait times with many, many data points, which to me is about as close as you can come to accurately analyzing how "crowded" a park is/was. It's certainly better to use that than to use anecdotal evidence like the posts on here. That's not a slam on anyone posting their thoughts or ideas for how they do it or how crowded they feel on certain days, it's just that those are single data points and are subject to multiple bias factors.

You could do a lot worse than following their crowd calendar. "Winging it" is something I would never, ever do.

 

[DisneyFive]

Taking Touringplans.com into account, I believe they have a sound basis for their calculations and predictions. They base off actual empirical data of wait times with many, many data points, which to me is about as close as you can come to accurately analyzing how "crowded" a park is/was. It's certainly better to use that than to use anecdotal evidence like the posts on here. That's not a slam on anyone posting their thoughts or ideas for how they do it or how crowded they feel on certain days, it's just that those are single data points and are subject to multiple bias factors.

You could do a lot worse than following their crowd calendar. "Winging it" is something I would never, ever do.

Plus, what I like, is that you can go back and see how they did versus their predictions. Looking at their past accuracy, I'm willing to put a decent amount of trust in their predictions. They are not perfect by any means but better for us than just winging it.

Dan

 

[mlink461]

Based on the huge number of guests carrying around paper maps and waiting in 60 minute lines, I highly doubt enough people plan anything to blame guest flow on a few crowd calendars that most have never heard about.

Just saw your name. Are you the same kenny the pirate with the website? I love some infor I have read from it about parties, events, etc.

 

[georgina]

Are they helpful? In our five years going, I've never once looked at a crowd calendar. I guess it depends on the time of year you are going but I'm probably one of the few who have never and will never use them!

I think those of us who don't use them are the majority! (And we've been going since 1998) The only crowd info I ever used was avoid the MK on Saturday. And I will ignore that if I feel like it.

 

[xipotec]

I use plain old common sense.

Extra people go to parks based on a simple formula.

(EMH) X (Nighttime entertainment) X (Friday or Sat (MK only) X (holiday) X (school days off) X (special events) x (free dining) x (weather) X (Current Economy) X (Disney Movie in theaters) X (popularity of movie in theaters) X (El Nino) X (International Relations) X (solar Eclipse year) X (Average Sea rise elevation) X (Your personal desire to go to WDW no matter how many people are going at the same time) X (the average rainfall of the amazon basin) X (1.21 Gigawatts) / 3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375105820974944592307816406286
= Crowd level at WDW park that day.

 

[Shanti]

If anyone thinks that the you're going to arrive at the "most recommended" park and find no crowd, I think the answer would be to adjust your expectations. Not only do the blogs acknowledge that a "7" in 2016 does not = a "7" from 2014...

The OP clearly stated that she went to TP's most recommend park & it was terribly crowded, then went back on a day it was TP's not recommended park, and crowds were much lighter. That's a comparison that has nothing to do with expectations, 2014 vs. 2016, or with FP+. It's simply about the calendar being wrong about which day of week is the best to go.

 

[Clare Voince]

The OP clearly stated that she went to TP's most recommend park & it was terribly crowded, then went back on a day it was TP's not recommended park, and crowds were much lighter. That's a comparison that has nothing to do with expectations, 2014 vs. 2016, or with FP+. It's simply about the calendar being wrong about which day of week is the best to go.

Exactly. I went back and looked at touring plans to check my dates. The day I went to MK when it was recommended, they had predicted a crowd level of 5.. it ended up being a 9. Now the day that I thought was less busy was still an 8, so maybe I just experienced lower crowds because I was there in the evening.

 

[DisneyFive]

The OP clearly stated that she went to TP's most recommend park & it was terribly crowded, then went back on a day it was TP's not recommended park, and crowds were much lighter. That's a comparison that has nothing to do with expectations, 2014 vs. 2016, or with FP+. It's simply about the calendar being wrong about which day of week is the best to go.

Crowds can also vary wildly from one day to the next at WDW, so it may have had nothing to do with TP.

Dan

 

[Mikie]

Just saw your name. Are you the same kenny the pirate with the website? I love some infor I have read from it about parties, events, etc.

Yep, that's Kenny The Pirate of planning website fame

I use plain old common sense.

Extra people go to parks based on a simple formula.

(EMH) X (Nighttime entertainment) X (Friday or Sat (MK only) X (holiday) X (school days off) X (special events) x (free dining) x (weather) X (Current Economy) X (Disney Movie in theaters) X (popularity of movie in theaters) X (El Nino) X (International Relations) X (solar Eclipse year) X (Average Sea rise elevation) X (Your personal desire to go to WDW no matter how many people are going at the same time) X (the average rainfall of the amazon basin) X (1.21 Gigawatts) / 3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375105820974944592307816406286
= Crowd level at WDW park that day.

I am quite pleased that you remembered to include 1.21 gigawatts, but I think you were supposed to divide

 

[Sevey13]

Here's the thing, though. The MK averages, what, 55,000 people a day? How many of those people do you think ever look at a crowd calendar? If even 5,000 of them, 10% (a big number, imo) did and decided to go elsewhere, that's only a drop of 5,000 from tens of thousands. 5,000 won't make too big a drop in the bucket to an average person.

The reason things like Touring Plans work for people it works for (commando style) is because not many people us it. If all 55k MK visitors used a TP from the TP website, or if all of them knew the 'tricks' to getting on popular rides (rope drop, emh, etc), it would be disastrous because all 55k people would be trying to do so much of the same thing at the same time.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I've never used a crowd predictor in my 35 years of visiting the Mouse.

 

[DavidNYC]

Crowd calendars are not magical. 90% of it is avoid EMH parks and don't go to MK on Saturday or Monday. Other than that - there are many factors that can affect them such as weather. Individuals also cannot really make accurate conclusions based on their individual experience - they can only comment on where they were at a given moment and not what it was like everywhere else. Most people do not use calendars. There's still a vast majority of people out there who do not visit these sites and just wing it or make minor plans based on friends advice. Early mornings and evenings will almost always be less crowds than the late morning - late afternoon period.

Everything is also relative. If you're there at a busy time, even the recommended park is going to be crowded. And there aren't really "slow" times anymore. Just times that aren't as crowded as others. I was there April 9-15 this year and found it perfectly manageable without doing more than a few ADRs, FP+ and knowing which park we were doing each day (and using some basic knowledge acquired over the years).

 

[Lothlórien]

Many moons back, when TourGuideMike had his thing going strong, it worked well and it was a great investment for $20. Then.... members started posting it online everywhere for free. When members started telling everybody that was not a member how it was done, others caught on and everybody and their mother started a Disney planning site giving the information away. It is so commonplace now that least crowded park calendars are useless. I used to be a member of several Disney FB groups and it seemed like 1 out of every 5 people had a site they directed you to so that you could avoid crowds. Crazy!

 

[kennythepirate]

Just saw your name. Are you the same kenny the pirate with the website? I love some info I have read from it about parties, events, etc.

Same guy thanks!

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

We were in MK at various times over 4 days last week. Sun did indeed feel the least crowded of the three normal days. Tues and Sat felt more crowded so for us, the advice of Sun MK was good. I had been planning to compare Tues to Wed because Tues was recommended by easyWDW but looked busier per TP. Wed was evening EMH so not recommended by easyWDW but looked lighter on TP. Well, that plan fell apart when Wed had downpours all day. The only conclusion to be drawn was that you can throw the crowd calendars and touring plans out the window when it rains all day and just walk onto everything.
I think in general they are good rules of thumb and worth considering but there are a lot of things that can throw them off including all the changes in the parks now.