2020 Disney Marathon: Training Summary, Strategy, and Race Prediction
"If you want it, PROVE IT, by doing what is necessary to get it."
Depending on your perspective, the training for the 2020 Disney Marathon started 198 days ago (the first day of the TrainerRoad High Volume Ironman plan), or 415 days ago (the day I made the switch from exclusively running to a new methodology of run+cycle+strength), or 2751 days ago (when I first laced up my shoes and went for a run). Regardless of whichever starting point you use, it's been a long time.
This training has felt like a quest to conquer old demons from the past. Getting over 2018 which was an injury plagued year. Figuring out a way that I could watch my GPS pace and still feel comfortable with what I was seeing. Dealing with my weight and being ok with not being Dopey 2018 weight and instead a stronger more resilient human being. But there are still a few remaining demons to conquer and those will be dealt with on Sunday. The three races that occurred during this training plan nearly all went to plan. I faced little adversity and such never had to deal with the onslaught of negative thoughts during the race. If I am to succeed on race day, then I need to be more prepared to deal with that inevitability. The additional fear of the unknown when it comes to running this marathon on such little actual run training when compared to previous attempts.
I've worked hard for this. I have earned whatever happens on Sunday. I will put my best effort forward and never lose motivation. And when I cross that finish line, I will be proud of all I've accomplished. The victory lap for completing my training.
Running Duration - 110:51 hours
Running Mileage - 806.35 miles
Running HR - 138
Indoor Cycling Duration - 212:13 hours
Indoor Cycling Mileage - 3,363 miles
80DO Duration - 64:30 hours
# Activities - 303
Total Duration - 387:35 hours in the last 198 days
Total Number of Miles run since 6/27/12 - 11,572
PRs
400m - 1:22 (unofficial)
1/2 mile - 2:51 (unofficial)
1000k - 3:37 (unofficial)
15k - 1:02:28 (unofficial)
10 mile - 1:06:59 (unofficial)
20k - 1:23:17 (unofficial)
HM - 1:28:40
Keywords to find each weekly update
The Strategy
For diet, the focus this week will continue to be on healthy foods high in vitamins and potassium. I have also been supplementing in Liquid IV once a day just to help increase sodium/potassium intake, but more so to make sure it is tolerable to my system. On Saturday, the day prior to the marathon, I will conduct my modified Western Australian Carb Loading procedure that I followed prior to the Madison HM in November.
So instead of 80% of my carbs being sourced from liquid sources, I will instead get about 50% of my carbs from liquid sources and continue to eat almost normally. The goal is to eat at least 11.3 g carbs/kg body weight as I did in November. I had no ill effects from this strategy in November and felt absolutely great on race day. So early Saturday morning, I will get in my 20 min run w/ strides. I'll drink chocolate milk and Maurten 320. Then have breakfast at POP (eggs, oranges, and oatmeal). I'll continue to drink Maurten 320 throughout the day aiming for 5-6 total packages. For lunch at Sanaa, I will likely have the bread service, and then a dish with chicken and white rice. For dinner, I'll eat at AOA and have a pasta dish with chicken. If I feel hungry throughout the day, I will snack at my leisure. I'll drink extra water to thirst and drink 1-2 Liquid IV throughout the day. On Sunday morning, I will drink 16-24oz of Liquid IV around 2am (approximately 2 hours before my last opportunity for the bathroom around 4am). I will eat my bagel with PB and honey around 2:00am as well. I'll drink Maurten 320 about 15 min prior to race start (4:45am) and possibly have 5oz of liquid IV either right at the start or during the first mile.
As for fueling during the race, I'm planning the following:
minus 15 min - Maurten 320
45 min - Tailwind Concentrate
60 min - Maurten Caff gel
75 min - Egel
105 min - Tailwind Concentrate
120 min - Maurten gel
135 min - Egel
165 min - Tailwind Concentrate
I may consume 5 oz Liquid IV during mile 1, and may add a little liquid IV powder to aid station cups from mile 1 to 11.
In total, without the Liquid IV that will be 93 grams carbs per hour which is the highest content I've ever done in a race. My previous high was my 2015 Lakefront Marathon (and first sub-4) at 7 Egels in 3:38 (or 71.3 grams per hour). I have done the 93 grams per hour rate in all long run training runs and never had an issue. That's why I'm unlikely to add the Liquid IV at the start of the race because it would be something new. In total, I'll have consumed more electrolytes during the race than I have in the past as well.
I am hopeful this strategy will pay off.
I'll wear my Zensah calf sleeves off and on throughout the entire time I'm in Disney from landing on Thursday afternoon until Saturday night.
Over the last three races I've used the same pacing strategy. I set a pace window based off of Garmin VO2max data. I then placed splits based on GAP (grade adjusted pacing) for each mile on a homemade pace band.
My Garmin VO2max has been bouncing around 57 to 59 depending on the type of workout. In best case scenarios, that would be 3:01:30 - 3:07:30 (a delta -6 from VDOT). But when the T+D has been above 115, I have never run a sub 8 delta.
So using the Garmin VO2max value of 57 to 59 with a best case scenario of delta 8 would be a finishing range of 3:07:30 - 3:14:00.
On November 10th, I ran the Madison HM in 1:28:40. It measured 13.19 mile on my Garmin. The average pace was a 6:43 min/mile. The average GAP was a 6:39 min/mile. A 1:28:40 HM straight up predicts a 3:05 - 3:10 M. The grade adjusted HM would be a 1:28:00 and predict a 3:03 - 3:08 M. My HR during this HM was 148. My previous HMs with the same GPS watch have been 153, 154, 150, and 151. My Ms with the same GPS watch have been 145, 151, 149, and 140 (Chicago). So the 6:39 GAP of the HM would be a 2:54:30 if it would have been a M. I finished this race feeling like I had held back too much. Steph commented the same that I looked too fresh at the finish line. Unlike the DoLittle HM, I was partially tapered for the November HM. Not as tapered as I will be for Disney though (all based on training load calculations). Although the T+D of DoLittle is very similar to what is currently forecasted for Disney (138 vs 141).
I had a hard time getting my HR up (or pace faster) during the double days with a hard cycling in the morning and evening LT to HM Tempo effort workouts. It's likely because of the Wednesday I pace workout, and then Thursday morning cycle workout. Those morning workouts were generally 90-120 min long and rather intense. Only twice did the TSS for the morning workout drop below 100 and both times it was a sub-6:40 run pace in the evening. HM Tempo average historical HR with this watch is 152. The last workout prior to the Nov HM was a 6:52 min/mile continuous workout at 151.5 HR. Then on race day I did 6:39 at a 148 HR. The workout on 12/26 was really strong with a 3+2+1 at 6:41 average with 152 HR while being supremely overdressed (HAT). If it were a 13 second drop that would be a 6:28 min/mile pace (2:50:00 marathon).
In my past training plans, my peak weekend workouts would normally be a 90 min Saturday run + 150 min Sunday run. In this training plan, my peak workout was a 240 min cycle + 90 min Saturday brick run and then on Sunday a 140 min long run. How much did that 240 min cycle matter in terms of fatigue resistance and building fitness? I also did a 5:30 hr morning cycle + 60 min evening run followed by a 180 min long run on Sunday.
The 11/28/19 double was a fantastic run and was the only time I had the "it" feeling. I ran a 3+2+1 mile at an average GAP of 6:35 at a HR of 149 in my Kinvaras.
Probably the only other run of note was on 12/15/19. It was 4 hours of IM cycling followed by 75 min at M Tempo effort. I ended up averaging a 7:00 min/mile (GAP) for 10.65 miles at a HR of 143. This was done in my Saucony Kinvaras. It was only a windchill of 9F.
My taper plan is very reminiscent of the taper I used prior to the November HM.
Nov HM Taper
Disney M Taper
Some times/paces to keep in mind. The paces are based on a GPS distance of 26.40 miles.
Current PR - 3:14:05; 7:21 min/mile
Boston Qualify - 3:05:00; 7:00 min/mile
BQ minus - 3:01:12; 6:52 min/mile*
Sub-3 - 3:00:00; 6:49 min/mile
*Based on the last 4 years of BQ standards the cutoff time has dropped by 1:15, 1:29, 1:47 from the previous year. Based on this, the time would drop by 2:09 min from the previous cutoff (1:39). So the 2021 BQ projection would be -3:48. However, the weather for Chicago and New York was apparently quite good and there was a size-able jump in BQs. So that number might be even lower than a -3:48.
So therein lies the issue with coming up with a pacing strategy. The historical Garmin VO2max data set would contest that I've never beaten a delta -6 under any conditions or a delta -8 under T+D greater than 115 conditions. Thus, that data suggests my pace should be set for a 3:07:30 - 3:14:00 marathon. However, all of that data is based on being in the midst of significant aerobic training. Only once did I allow myself to reveal the tapered legs and raced the HM to a time of 1:28:40 unadjusted. So that time would suggest a 3:05 - 3:10 and GAP adjusted would be a 3:03 - 3:08. But if we evaluate individual data points there's some data points to suggest under similar conditions (of which this race will not be) I could run as fast as a 2:50 - 2:55 M. So when putting all the pieces together that's a range of a 6:29 min/mile to 7:21 min/mile. That's an impossibly large pacing strategy. Although the 6:29 is based on super cold temps, so something like an adjusted 6:41 is more reasonable since the T+D will be higher at Disney. But even still, a 6:41 - 7:21 min/mile is a pretty big window. And the pacing of a M is razor thin between enough and too much.
Since the GAP is practically zero, then I'm approaching the pacing strategy slightly differently for this race. Instead of mile splits, I'll have milestones along the way to check on progress. So I set milestones at 60 min, 120 min, 20 mile, 23 mile, and 25 miles (all distance based on my GPS). This way I can measure progress and see where I'm at. Based on my calculations, the sub-3 pace is 6:49. So I'm going to set a hard cap at a 6:46 min/mile pace through Mile 20. I chose Mile 20 based on 7 previous marathons with substantial data from 2015 to 2018. During those marathons, my fade began at mile 18 (1), mile 19 (1), mile 20 (3), mile 21 (1), and mile 22 (1) [with the fade being defined as a loss of pace of greater than 10 seconds from the previous mile]. If for some reason, I'm still feeling good at mile 20, then the 6:46 cap will be removed.
As a safety net, I plan to also set a HR alert. During my current PR (Lakefront 2017), my average HR was a 151. This is the highest average HR for a marathon I have using the same watch. The others were 2018 Chicago (140), 2018 Disney (145), and 2017 Disney (149). So one race where I was undertrained due to injury and two marathons during Dopey. So not great data. During Lakefront 2017, my HR was 145, 153, 155, 154, and 152 through the first 5 miles (and maximally hit 156-161). It stayed around 152 until mile 19 when the pace had just started to fall. The HR fell, but not as much as the pace did. Based on Jack Daniels calculations and an estimated HRmax of 174 and restHR of 49, my predicted M HR would be 147-152 (moderate to advanced conversion). So roughly in line with what I've done. So as a safety net, I'm going to set my HR at 153 until mile 20. I'm going to program my watch with 20 x 1 mile splits to alert if the average HR is higher than 153. I'm also going to program my watch with 30 x 1 mile splits with no HR alert. So if during the race, the watch is giving me faulty HR data (doesn't happen often, but it does happen), then I'll quickly press the lap button to #20 and be clear of the HR alert with little fuss. If everything works normally, then I'll have the alert through 20 miles, and then the last 6 the alert will be turned off. So the strategy is to stay slower than a 6:46 min/mile or lower than an average HR of 153, whichever occurs first. This should help mitigate the unknown of the T+D effect and taper effect. And if for some reason after 20 miles of HR below 153 I still feel good, then I take the gloves off and race through BB, DHS, and EPCOT being a MEGA PAC-Man.
Steph isn't a fan of the strategy. She thinks I should take the gloves off and run the right pace regardless of the HR data. She believes I put in too much work to allow some simple measure of effort be the judge of whether or not I can achieve a sub-3. But conversely I believe, that attempting to run much faster than whatever pace a 153 HR ends up being could easily be disastrous. And whatever pace that HR of 153 is, be it 6:46 or 7:45, I'll live with it and know it's the right strategy. Because once the race starts, there is no more second guessing. I've only negative split a marathon once (2015 Lakefront), but when I did, it was massive (-4:53). It included PRs or near PRs at 5k, 10k, and HM. I ran the second half of the M faster than I had the solo HM just 43 days earlier. Most of the drop in pace occurred from Mile 12 to 21 with 21 being the fastest. So there's precedent that if for some reason a cap of 6:46 ends up being too slow, then I'll simply pick up the pace for the remainder of the race.
My Race Prediction
So then the final question comes down to - what do I think I'll run the marathon in? Good question... I've got no idea. I could see this going 14,000,605 different ways. But here's my strategy for the game, I want to win. Hey, don't we all! But I think it's more than that. I want to win either in this game OR in the race. But I don't have to get both. So while my heart says I'm getting that sub-3, my brain says let's hedge our bets with the game portion and go with the slower window. I'm currently sitting at +85. The slow side of the cardiovascular window says 3:07 - 3:14. So split the difference and say 3:10:30. A +85 means I need to guess 3:10:30 - 85 seconds. So that would be a
3:09:05.
Now do not take this the wrong way. This is NOT a lack of confidence on my part. I know I can run sub-3. I can feel it. It CAN happen. Whether it will or not is based on how the day goes. But IT IS possible. But with that being said, if I take the middle of the cardiovascular range, then I'm playing the prediction end of the game safe. And while I was disappointed about the 3:14 M at 2017 Lakefront, I will be happy with any time under a 3:14 at Disney 2020. Maybe even something slower than a 3:14 will still be ok with me. I'm running. I'm healthy. I'm racing. And those are three things I haven't been able to say together in approximately 2 years. So I appreciate the opportunity to go out and have what I consider to be a very fulfilling and enjoyable time running as hard as I can regardless of whatever the final time ends up being.
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In pen! 
