cburnett11
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jun 19, 2007
- Messages
- 870
It's been a while since I played. I'll go with 1:34 in this weekend's HM. Have a great race Billy.
To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)
- Thread starter DopeyBadger
- Start date
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,345
DoLittle HM Weather Report: 5 Days to go!
Time to start getting a feeling as to where the weather will be. Historically for DoLittle we're looking at this:
And the current forecast is:
Start at 7am and end at 9am
9/13/19 - T+D of 112-119 (adj of 1%), 53% cloudy, 19% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/14/19 - T+D of 127-132 (adj of 2%), 81% cloudy, 33% chance of rain, 11mph SW wind
9/16/19 - T+D of 128-131 (adj of 2%), 82% cloudy, 37% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 126-129 (adj of 2%), 93% cloudy, 43% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 132-134 (adj of 2.5%), 93% cloudy, 41% chance of rain, 7mph SW wind
Overall, still holding steady at T+D around 130, super cloudy, and a chance of rain. C'mon cold front! Maybe I should get out there with a fan and blow the air around to get the cold front here earlier...
Time to start getting a feeling as to where the weather will be. Historically for DoLittle we're looking at this:
And the current forecast is:
Start at 7am and end at 9am
9/13/19 - T+D of 112-119 (adj of 1%), 53% cloudy, 19% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/14/19 - T+D of 127-132 (adj of 2%), 81% cloudy, 33% chance of rain, 11mph SW wind
9/16/19 - T+D of 128-131 (adj of 2%), 82% cloudy, 37% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 126-129 (adj of 2%), 93% cloudy, 43% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 132-134 (adj of 2.5%), 93% cloudy, 41% chance of rain, 7mph SW wind
Overall, still holding steady at T+D around 130, super cloudy, and a chance of rain. C'mon cold front! Maybe I should get out there with a fan and blow the air around to get the cold front here earlier...
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,345
2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest - Race #3 (DoLittle HM)
Just a reminder that guesses need to be submitted by Friday morning. See link above for details.
Yet to submit
@TeeterTots
@roxymama
@flav
@DisMatt0483
@QueenFernando
@PkbaughAR
@ZellyB
Just a reminder that guesses need to be submitted by Friday morning. See link above for details.
Yet to submit
@TeeterTots
@roxymama
@flav
@DisMatt0483
@QueenFernando
@PkbaughAR
@ZellyB
QueenFernando
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Aug 11, 2016
- Messages
- 194
1:38:42. I too need to err on the slower side to balance back to 0 overall.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,345
2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest - Race #3 (DoLittle HM)
My Guess!
So the methodology on this one was to go back in a way to the drawing board and re-evaluate my methods for making predictions. Most recently it seems that I personally have far faster goals than what occurs in reality. Being off by minutes on the 5k and by a good chunk on the mile test. So I decided to review old data to see if I could again re-evaluate my pace goal choices.
I started with the Garmin VO2max value. When I used that in relation to a T+D adjustment I saw that a PR in those conditions would be like a 20:39 5k time. When I ran the actual race it was a 20:40. So the times lined up. There is something to be said for going out in the beginning of the race WAY too fast for the 5k and that's likely a contributing factor to the overall time.
But when the T+D was in the 130s (like this race will be) I found that the delta between my Garmin VO2max and Race VDOT was around 8-9 (2019 Brat Fest 5k, 2018 Madison Mini HM, and 2017 Hot2Trot 10k). But the best case scenarios have typically been in the 6s. So something between a delta of 6-9 is reasonable. My current Garmin VO2max is a 56. So that means a VDOT of 47-50 is a reasonable range. One caveat that may or may not matter is that the Garmin VO2max value is almost exclusively built on non-Next% shoes. So it remains to be seen what impact those shoes may or may not have.
I then also went back and re-evaluated my average HR during races using my current watch.
To my surprise, my average HR in races has been trending lower with this watch that it did with my old setup. So while I thought a HR of 152 was marathon and HR of 155-156 was HM, it would appear based on actual results that my HR is somewhat lower. My average HR for a HM is 152 and M is 148. I punched in my resting HR and max HR into Daniels calculations and found that his ranges mostly agree with my recent data. So I've shifted my HR expectations down such that M HR is now around 148. For 5k/10k evaluation I used the max in races rather than the average which lines up well with Daniels.
I then evaluated the DoLittle HM course.
Using MapMyRun I was able to roughly ascertain the elevation gain of each mile.
I then used that information and figured out what the Strava GAP would be for each mile based on the gain/loss within that mile. Such that it should create an evenly effort-paced run more-so than an evenly paced run. So as an example, mile 2 is predicted to have a gain of 67 feet. Per evaluations of prior runs on Strava, a 67 foot gain in a mile is roughly a +22 second on grade adjusted pacing. So if the goal pace was a 7:00 min/mile, then in reality mile 2 should be a 7:22 goal when taking the hill into account. As you can see, you gain far less from a downhill than you lose from an uphill (+38 ft is +15sec, but -37 ft is only -4 sec).
I then determined that the total elevation gain per MMR should be around 289 feet or 22 feet per mile. Based on several recent runs of 28-40 ft per mile, I estimate that the final average pace should be about +4 seconds from a flat road (so ideal pace of 7:00 means 7:04 is likely based on hills).
I then combined the VO2max data, HR data, and elevation data to create a goal pace range for each mile.
The VDOT of 50 would yield a HM of 1:31:37 and VDOT of 47 would yield a 1:36:36. I adjusted the goal paces down by 4 seconds to account for the hills, but then my Garmin VO2max is based on training on hills so I think it's a justified move. Then each individual mile is based on the predicted GAP and the elevation gains from each subsequent mile. So mile 1 is suppose to be a +15 per GAP, and thus the equivalent effort to a 6:55 mile is a 7:10 mile. The result is an undulated pace but what should be an equal effort throughout. I'll print off the range from delta 6 to delta 9 and attempt to be between those mile times for each mile. The three red miles are the changes in elevation (0-3.4 is uphill, 3.4-6.55 is downhill, 6.55-9.7 is uphill, and 9.7 to finish is downhill). Once I reach the GPS mile 9.7 is when the gloves come off and I ran as fast as possible to the finish line.
I then added a section below that postulates the "Next% Effect". If the shoes generate a HM for my height, weight, and pace to be about a 12 sec/mile gain, then the range of performance for delta 6-9 shifts from 1:31:37-1:36:36 to 1:29:07-1:34:06. The overlap occurs between 1:31:37-1:34:06. If the shoes allow me to run faster, then I'll wait to see that effect in the last 3.4 mile downhill. A gain of 12 seconds per mile during that time frame would yield a roughly 40 second gain in performance. So a 1:31:04 at best.
For my guess, I'm going to err on the slower side of the delta range and use the 8 value. So that would be a 1:35:02 HM. I'll say the shoes gain me 40 seconds in the last 3.4 miles for a time of 1:34:22. My current "cumulative time off" is -59 seconds (so I've so far guessed 59 seconds too fast). So 1:34:22 + 59 seconds is a final guess of 1:35:21.
Now let's go break 90 min!
I know one thing I'm going to do is watch Goku vs Jiren on the car ride to the race. Just going to channel my inner autonomous ultra instinct. We're almost to the series finale on Adult Swim!
My Guess!
So the methodology on this one was to go back in a way to the drawing board and re-evaluate my methods for making predictions. Most recently it seems that I personally have far faster goals than what occurs in reality. Being off by minutes on the 5k and by a good chunk on the mile test. So I decided to review old data to see if I could again re-evaluate my pace goal choices.
I started with the Garmin VO2max value. When I used that in relation to a T+D adjustment I saw that a PR in those conditions would be like a 20:39 5k time. When I ran the actual race it was a 20:40. So the times lined up. There is something to be said for going out in the beginning of the race WAY too fast for the 5k and that's likely a contributing factor to the overall time.
But when the T+D was in the 130s (like this race will be) I found that the delta between my Garmin VO2max and Race VDOT was around 8-9 (2019 Brat Fest 5k, 2018 Madison Mini HM, and 2017 Hot2Trot 10k). But the best case scenarios have typically been in the 6s. So something between a delta of 6-9 is reasonable. My current Garmin VO2max is a 56. So that means a VDOT of 47-50 is a reasonable range. One caveat that may or may not matter is that the Garmin VO2max value is almost exclusively built on non-Next% shoes. So it remains to be seen what impact those shoes may or may not have.
I then also went back and re-evaluated my average HR during races using my current watch.
To my surprise, my average HR in races has been trending lower with this watch that it did with my old setup. So while I thought a HR of 152 was marathon and HR of 155-156 was HM, it would appear based on actual results that my HR is somewhat lower. My average HR for a HM is 152 and M is 148. I punched in my resting HR and max HR into Daniels calculations and found that his ranges mostly agree with my recent data. So I've shifted my HR expectations down such that M HR is now around 148. For 5k/10k evaluation I used the max in races rather than the average which lines up well with Daniels.
I then evaluated the DoLittle HM course.
Using MapMyRun I was able to roughly ascertain the elevation gain of each mile.
I then used that information and figured out what the Strava GAP would be for each mile based on the gain/loss within that mile. Such that it should create an evenly effort-paced run more-so than an evenly paced run. So as an example, mile 2 is predicted to have a gain of 67 feet. Per evaluations of prior runs on Strava, a 67 foot gain in a mile is roughly a +22 second on grade adjusted pacing. So if the goal pace was a 7:00 min/mile, then in reality mile 2 should be a 7:22 goal when taking the hill into account. As you can see, you gain far less from a downhill than you lose from an uphill (+38 ft is +15sec, but -37 ft is only -4 sec).
I then determined that the total elevation gain per MMR should be around 289 feet or 22 feet per mile. Based on several recent runs of 28-40 ft per mile, I estimate that the final average pace should be about +4 seconds from a flat road (so ideal pace of 7:00 means 7:04 is likely based on hills).
I then combined the VO2max data, HR data, and elevation data to create a goal pace range for each mile.
The VDOT of 50 would yield a HM of 1:31:37 and VDOT of 47 would yield a 1:36:36. I adjusted the goal paces down by 4 seconds to account for the hills, but then my Garmin VO2max is based on training on hills so I think it's a justified move. Then each individual mile is based on the predicted GAP and the elevation gains from each subsequent mile. So mile 1 is suppose to be a +15 per GAP, and thus the equivalent effort to a 6:55 mile is a 7:10 mile. The result is an undulated pace but what should be an equal effort throughout. I'll print off the range from delta 6 to delta 9 and attempt to be between those mile times for each mile. The three red miles are the changes in elevation (0-3.4 is uphill, 3.4-6.55 is downhill, 6.55-9.7 is uphill, and 9.7 to finish is downhill). Once I reach the GPS mile 9.7 is when the gloves come off and I ran as fast as possible to the finish line.
I then added a section below that postulates the "Next% Effect". If the shoes generate a HM for my height, weight, and pace to be about a 12 sec/mile gain, then the range of performance for delta 6-9 shifts from 1:31:37-1:36:36 to 1:29:07-1:34:06. The overlap occurs between 1:31:37-1:34:06. If the shoes allow me to run faster, then I'll wait to see that effect in the last 3.4 mile downhill. A gain of 12 seconds per mile during that time frame would yield a roughly 40 second gain in performance. So a 1:31:04 at best.
For my guess, I'm going to err on the slower side of the delta range and use the 8 value. So that would be a 1:35:02 HM. I'll say the shoes gain me 40 seconds in the last 3.4 miles for a time of 1:34:22. My current "cumulative time off" is -59 seconds (so I've so far guessed 59 seconds too fast). So 1:34:22 + 59 seconds is a final guess of 1:35:21.
Now let's go break 90 min!
I know one thing I'm going to do is watch Goku vs Jiren on the car ride to the race. Just going to channel my inner autonomous ultra instinct. We're almost to the series finale on Adult Swim!
Sleepless Knight
Jedi Knight Seeking His Jedi Princess
- Joined
- May 15, 2008
- Messages
- 4,964
And thus make my Back to the Future inspired guess accurate! I like this plan.Now let's go break 90 min!
TeeterTots
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2014
- Messages
- 1,644
Omg how did I go all summer without seeing one notification!!!
My guess 1:36:11
My guess 1:36:11
flav
Loving My Ears
- Joined
- Oct 12, 2014
- Messages
- 2,309
1:35:50 basically your prediction plus my cumulative mistakes
ETA: We played prediction game when I was pregnant and my cousin said he was betting for the date the doctor had predicted since it was the highest probability... He won. So the expert best guess is my guess.
ETA: We played prediction game when I was pregnant and my cousin said he was betting for the date the doctor had predicted since it was the highest probability... He won. So the expert best guess is my guess.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,345
Well I guess that means it has been a good summer!
Smart play. Although who knows in the end.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,345
DoLittle HM Weather Report: 4 Days to go!
Time to start getting a feeling as to where the weather will be. Historically for DoLittle we're looking at this:
And the current forecast is:
Start at 7am and end at 9am
9/13/19 - T+D of 112-119 (adj of 1%), 53% cloudy, 19% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/14/19 - T+D of 127-132 (adj of 2%), 81% cloudy, 33% chance of rain, 11mph SW wind
9/16/19 - T+D of 128-131 (adj of 2%), 82% cloudy, 37% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 126-129 (adj of 2%), 93% cloudy, 43% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/18/19 - T+D of 132-134 (adj of 2.5%), 93% cloudy, 41% chance of rain, 7mph SW wind
9/19/19 - T+D of 134-136 (adj of 2.5%), 95% cloudy, 45% chance of rain, 9mph SW wind
You can really see the dew point is trying to drop before Sunday morning. It's just right on the tipping point. There's still hope.
Time to start getting a feeling as to where the weather will be. Historically for DoLittle we're looking at this:
And the current forecast is:
Start at 7am and end at 9am
9/13/19 - T+D of 112-119 (adj of 1%), 53% cloudy, 19% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/14/19 - T+D of 127-132 (adj of 2%), 81% cloudy, 33% chance of rain, 11mph SW wind
9/16/19 - T+D of 128-131 (adj of 2%), 82% cloudy, 37% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 126-129 (adj of 2%), 93% cloudy, 43% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/18/19 - T+D of 132-134 (adj of 2.5%), 93% cloudy, 41% chance of rain, 7mph SW wind
9/19/19 - T+D of 134-136 (adj of 2.5%), 95% cloudy, 45% chance of rain, 9mph SW wind
You can really see the dew point is trying to drop before Sunday morning. It's just right on the tipping point. There's still hope.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,345
DoLittle HM Weather Report: 3 Days to go!
Time to start getting a feeling as to where the weather will be. Historically for DoLittle we're looking at this:
And the current forecast is:
Start at 7am and end at 9am
9/13/19 - T+D of 112-119 (adj of 1%), 53% cloudy, 19% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/14/19 - T+D of 127-132 (adj of 2%), 81% cloudy, 33% chance of rain, 11mph SW wind
9/16/19 - T+D of 128-131 (adj of 2%), 82% cloudy, 37% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 126-129 (adj of 2%), 93% cloudy, 43% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/18/19 - T+D of 132-134 (adj of 2.5%), 93% cloudy, 41% chance of rain, 7mph SW wind
9/19/19 - T+D of 134-136 (adj of 2.5%), 95% cloudy, 45% chance of rain, 9mph SW wind
9/20/19 - T+D of 133-133 (adj of 2.5%), 97% cloudy, 52% chance of rain, 10mph SW wind
I'd say it's been pretty consistent the last few days. Cloudy, 50/50 chance of rain, and a T+D in the low 130s with the dew point dropping after the race is over.
Time to start getting a feeling as to where the weather will be. Historically for DoLittle we're looking at this:
And the current forecast is:
Start at 7am and end at 9am
9/13/19 - T+D of 112-119 (adj of 1%), 53% cloudy, 19% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/14/19 - T+D of 127-132 (adj of 2%), 81% cloudy, 33% chance of rain, 11mph SW wind
9/16/19 - T+D of 128-131 (adj of 2%), 82% cloudy, 37% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 126-129 (adj of 2%), 93% cloudy, 43% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/18/19 - T+D of 132-134 (adj of 2.5%), 93% cloudy, 41% chance of rain, 7mph SW wind
9/19/19 - T+D of 134-136 (adj of 2.5%), 95% cloudy, 45% chance of rain, 9mph SW wind
9/20/19 - T+D of 133-133 (adj of 2.5%), 97% cloudy, 52% chance of rain, 10mph SW wind
I'd say it's been pretty consistent the last few days. Cloudy, 50/50 chance of rain, and a T+D in the low 130s with the dew point dropping after the race is over.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,345
2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest - Race #3 (DoLittle HM)
My Guess
Final guesses
1:28:00 - Steph
1:28:48 - @Sleepless Knight
1:29:39 - @DerTobi75
1:30:55 - @canglim52
1:31:24 - @mrsg00fy
1:32:10 - @disneygpa
1:32:42 - @MissLiss279
1:33:07 - @surfde22
1:33:38 - @Chaitali
1:34:00 - @cburnett11
1:35:21 - Me
1:35:44 - @michigandergirl
1:35:50 - @flav
1:35:55 - @JAMIESMITH
1:36:01 - @bovie
1:36:11 - @TeeterTots
1:36:15 - @Jules76126
1:37:10 - @SheHulk
1:37:13 - @KSellers88
1:37:23 - @FFigawi
1:37:27 - @SarahDisney
1:37:31 - @TheHamm
1:37:59 - @roxymama
1:38:01 - @lhermiston
1:38:42 - @QueenFernando
1:39:47 - @steph0808
1:42:00 - Gigi
Looks like the three members of the Blaser family are covering the high-medium-low of the range. This is quite the spread, so the game looks like it's about to get even more interesting.
As far as strategy, I mostly already covered it. I've made my pace band which I'll attach to my RoadID wristband.
The goal being to be between the range on each of the miles. I'm hoping this takes some of the mental sting away from having an exact pace to hit. Instead, I've got a 23 second range to hit that's already been pre-adjusted based on elevation changes.
With the chance of rain still lingering, I'll warm-up in a different pair of shoes likely. Bring an extra pair of socks, clothes, body glide, etc. Wear a rain jacket just before the race and maybe garbage bags on the shoes. As long as it is not a complete deluge, I'm wearing the Next%. If I ruin them, so be it. I'll buy another pair because that's what their purpose is. There are 185 HM runners and 79 marathon runners. So not a huge race, but there are usually a handful of people running in the same pace range as me. I plan to watch for the other runners as they come back on the back portion before I have and make note of the total time. Then make note of when I hit the turnaround to ascertain about how far ahead the other runners are. Hopefully I can Pac-Man some runners on the back half as designed.
Excited to see how this plays out! Time to go for the victory lap of completing Phase 1 of the TrainerRoad High Volume Ironman training plan!
My Guess
Final guesses
1:28:00 - Steph
1:28:48 - @Sleepless Knight
1:29:39 - @DerTobi75
1:30:55 - @canglim52
1:31:24 - @mrsg00fy
1:32:10 - @disneygpa
1:32:42 - @MissLiss279
1:33:07 - @surfde22
1:33:38 - @Chaitali
1:34:00 - @cburnett11
1:35:21 - Me
1:35:44 - @michigandergirl
1:35:50 - @flav
1:35:55 - @JAMIESMITH
1:36:01 - @bovie
1:36:11 - @TeeterTots
1:36:15 - @Jules76126
1:37:10 - @SheHulk
1:37:13 - @KSellers88
1:37:23 - @FFigawi
1:37:27 - @SarahDisney
1:37:31 - @TheHamm
1:37:59 - @roxymama
1:38:01 - @lhermiston
1:38:42 - @QueenFernando
1:39:47 - @steph0808
1:42:00 - Gigi
Looks like the three members of the Blaser family are covering the high-medium-low of the range. This is quite the spread, so the game looks like it's about to get even more interesting.
As far as strategy, I mostly already covered it. I've made my pace band which I'll attach to my RoadID wristband.
The goal being to be between the range on each of the miles. I'm hoping this takes some of the mental sting away from having an exact pace to hit. Instead, I've got a 23 second range to hit that's already been pre-adjusted based on elevation changes.
With the chance of rain still lingering, I'll warm-up in a different pair of shoes likely. Bring an extra pair of socks, clothes, body glide, etc. Wear a rain jacket just before the race and maybe garbage bags on the shoes. As long as it is not a complete deluge, I'm wearing the Next%. If I ruin them, so be it. I'll buy another pair because that's what their purpose is. There are 185 HM runners and 79 marathon runners. So not a huge race, but there are usually a handful of people running in the same pace range as me. I plan to watch for the other runners as they come back on the back portion before I have and make note of the total time. Then make note of when I hit the turnaround to ascertain about how far ahead the other runners are. Hopefully I can Pac-Man some runners on the back half as designed.
Excited to see how this plays out! Time to go for the victory lap of completing Phase 1 of the TrainerRoad High Volume Ironman training plan!
SarahDisney
So ... Yeah
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2014
- Messages
- 9,322
Time zones are stupid. I keep thinking you should be long done, but then I remember that it's earlier in Wisconsin.
Although ... you may be done by now (or just finishing up). Hope the race went well!
Although ... you may be done by now (or just finishing up). Hope the race went well!
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,345
1:34:57! 6th OA, 3rd AG, 2nd fastest Official HM. Recap to come.
lhermiston
Beer-powered running machine
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2013
- Messages
- 2,792
Great job, Billy!
FFigawi
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2009
- Messages
- 6,657
Congrats! Great result, plus it gets me some of the points I need to make up, if I understand the game correctly.
OldSlowGoofyGuy
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2013
- Messages
- 1,402
Congrats! Looks like the hard work is paying off!
avondale
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Oct 24, 2017
- Messages
- 1,974
Wow! Congrats! That is quite the finish!
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