To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[ZellyB]

You will crush this!

2:59:39

 

[BikeFan]

I'll go with a prediction of 2:59:00! Good luck! Someone more famous than me once said about the marathon, "Don't be a hero in the first half or a wimp in the last half!" or something like that. Sound advice, for sure.

It looks like there's going to be a 3:00 pacer (or at least they're looking for one). I've used pacers in the past, with mixed results. Having company definitely helps the miles go by faster, but I've also followed pacers who went out too fast, and cooked myself in the process (my own fault for sticking with them too long), so be careful with that.

Can't wait to see how it goes!

 

[DopeyBadger]

It looks like there's going to be a 3:00 pacer (or at least they're looking for one). I've used pacers in the past, with mixed results. Having company definitely helps the miles go by faster, but I've also followed pacers who went out too fast, and cooked myself in the process (my own fault for sticking with them too long), so be careful with that.

Yea, unfortunately I know I can't go with the pacer. They're splits have been spot on the last two years, but they do about a 6:48 min/mile (by Garmin pace). I know that would cause me to crash and burn too soon. So I'm going for what fitness dictates for the first 12 miles and then we'll see from there. If all goes according to plan, then I should mesh with the 3:00 pacer around mile 20-21.

 

[canglim52]

3:02:52!!

 

[mrsg00fy]

I estimate 2:59:50. I do think you will hit the sub three you have been seeking. I didn't go lower than this only because you have indicated that the less than three is somewhat of a stretch and I feel that you are very analytical and realistic with regard to your current fitness. It has been inspiring to watch this phase of your journey and I'm excited to see you hit this goal.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I estimate 2:59:50. I do think you will hit the sub three you have been seeking. I didn't go lower than this only because you have indicated that the less than three is somewhat of a stretch and I feel that you are very analytical and realistic with regard to your current fitness.

It will take a lot of luck and near ideal conditions to pull it off. But I'm closer to getting it then I've ever been. I've alway said this will be my first attempt, but all I can ask is for me to do my best.

 

[dancingtodisney]

Thanks! Probably one of my proudest training runs of this cycle given the struggles on the other two attempts. Nice gif!

How far out are you from the double hamstring tear? I'd venture to guess with such a short time frame that you should stick to the easy/endurance side of training. Means most, if not almost all, training should be about 45-90 seconds slower if continuous runner and 120 seconds slower if run/walker than your current fitness HM Tempo pace is. Anything more than 30 minutes is a good run. There are a couple golden zones of endurance training at 60-90 minutes and 120-150 minutes. I always recommend not going over 150 minutes in training and especially if you're just coming back into a training routine. Always best to be healthy on race day than overtrained and injured. Let me know if you're looking for something more specific.

It's about 3 months now, I had physio on Tuesday and she said it's heeled well, still a little bit tight so she needled it.

I guess I'll have a better idea of my current fitness after the Disneyland Paris half. I ran a 5k with Dad yesterday in about 39mins but that was with a long extended walk break at the end as still a bit tender from needling. Will ask him what our pace was like before that.

I don't think I need too much specifics for the 5weeks as it'll be all about building endurance as you say. Would be interested in some help on developing a more detailed plan after Wine and Dine as I'd like to work towards a half marathon PR in 2018 (current PR is approx 2hrs 19) if you had the time.

Thanks again for your help!

My guess for your time is 3:02:53

 

[DopeyBadger]

It's about 3 months now, I had physio on Tuesday and she said it's heeled well, still a little bit tight so she needled it.

I guess I'll have a better idea of my current fitness after the Disneyland Paris half. I ran a 5k with Dad yesterday in about 39mins but that was with a long extended walk break at the end as still a bit tender from needling. Will ask him what our pace was like before that.

I don't think I need too much specifics for the 5weeks as it'll be all about building endurance as you say. Would be interested in some help on developing a more detailed plan after Wine and Dine as I'd like to work towards a half marathon PR in 2018 (current PR is approx 2hrs 19) if you had the time.

Thanks again for your help!

My guess for your time is 3:02:53

Sounds good. If you give me a good current fitness estimate I can give you a general idea as to where the bulk of your pacing should be. Then I can certainly help you come up with something more specific after wine and dine.

 

[roxymama]

Fun fact #16: Much like horses are processed to make glue, unicorns are processed to make super glue.

(people coming on here just to make a race prediction are gonna think I'm real weird...but I guess that's nothing new)

Fun fact #15 (a day early, I'll be out and about tomorrow): Last year's Lakefront marathon had 43 people finish sub-3 hours. 39 were men. Thadeus Peterson finished in 2:59:46 in 43rd place and Joe Ketarkus in 3:00:26 in 44th. Find the Thad and beat the Thad (but also watch out for Joe!)

 

[disneydaydreamer33]

Woohoo race prediciton contest! My guess is 3:00:03 You are going to rock this marathon!!!

 

[michigandergirl]

My prediction is 3:00:26 - You are awesome no matter what!!!

 

[JClimacus]

I'll go with 2:58:30. Initially I was thinking about a slower time around 3:05 based on the fact that a 20 minute PR is a huge ask in a marathon... but you've shown similar large gains in the past, you're young, and you do not appear to have plateaued at all. Plus your meticulous preparation for the race. Lakefront looks like a decent course as well (I checked!). I think it would take a lot of cajones to bet against you in these circumstances and I'm not going to. In any case I'll be thinking of you during my own race and I wish you the best of luck. Let's look forward to 2 more BQ's for DISers come Oct. 1!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Let's look forward to 2 more BQ's for DISers come Oct. 1!

Let's do it! I'm pulling for you! Got a few other BQs to happen in the subsequent weeks as well. Sounds like a potential DIS party at Boston 2019.

 

[garneska]

Yes I hope I am in for the party in Boston 2019. I think there are a few of us.

I did have a minor mishap this morning. I fell. The sad part is my friend fell last week during our 14 miler. I fell today just tripped up on uneven pavement. Thankfully it appears to be road rash on my knee. It's a little sore but I think it will be fine tomorrow. The really sad part is falling just seems to be my SOP. Seriously it was 3 years ago I had my big fall. The amount of soft tissue damage to my elbow, shoulder, wrist and ankle was not good. Plus I ended up with a blood clot. Very happy this time is just some road rash. The shower was not so much fun. It's my easy week so only 6 miles tomorrow. I should be fine. Not giving up my BQ dream yet!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Yes I hope I am in for the party in Boston 2019. I think there are a few of us.

I did have a minor mishap this morning. I fell. The sad part is my friend fell last week during our 14 miler. I fell today just tripped up on uneven pavement. Thankfully it appears to be road rash on my knee. It's a little sore but I think it will be fine tomorrow. The really sad part is falling just seems to be my SOP. Seriously it was 3 years ago I had my big fall. The amount of soft tissue damage to my elbow, shoulder, wrist and ankle was not good. Plus I ended up with a blood clot. Very happy this time is just some road rash. The shower was not so much fun. It's my easy week so only 6 miles tomorrow. I should be fine. Not giving up my BQ dream yet!

Take care of yourself. Glad to hear it sounds like it's minor in the grand scheme. We're reserving your spot on the DIS Boston 2019 list. You and my wife sound similar since she's come home more times than she'd like to admit when the sidewalk gremlin gets her.

 

[pixarmom]

Yes I hope I am in for the party in Boston 2019. I think there are a few of us.

I did have a minor mishap this morning. I fell. The sad part is my friend fell last week during our 14 miler. I fell today just tripped up on uneven pavement. Thankfully it appears to be road rash on my knee. It's a little sore but I think it will be fine tomorrow. The really sad part is falling just seems to be my SOP. Seriously it was 3 years ago I had my big fall. The amount of soft tissue damage to my elbow, shoulder, wrist and ankle was not good. Plus I ended up with a blood clot. Very happy this time is just some road rash. The shower was not so much fun. It's my easy week so only 6 miles tomorrow. I should be fine. Not giving up my BQ dream yet!

Ugh - that happened to me a few weeks ago - just the fall and the major loss of skin on knees (not the blood clot - yikes!) It hurt terribly for at least 10 days and I couldn't go without band-aids for over a week. Shower was the worst. When I finally tried to let the wounds breathe, my entire family was completely grossed out. Now it's been over a month and it's pale pink circles under my knees. Feeling pretty tough, though!

Hope you feel better soon!

 

[garneska]

Yep. Be tough be cute. Now it's not so cute but I have been through worse and between tough weather to deal with (and I did and no wimping out) and the fall, I feel bad a$$.

 

[pixarmom]

Let's do it! I'm pulling for you! Got a few other BQs to happen in the subsequent weeks as well. Sounds like a potential DIS party at Boston 2019.

I go up an age group next year, so my BQ time for 2019 is less crazy.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I go up an age group next year, so my BQ time for 2019 is less crazy.

That means you've got October 2017 through September 2018 to nail that BQ race. You can do it!

PS - This is the historical weather for DoLittle and Milwaukee Lakefront. DoLittle is one week prior but a huge difference in T+D in just a span of a week. So while the temps are high right now, I'm fine holding out hope for historical patterns. Less than a T+D of 100 is ideal. Today was in the 150s.

 

[pixarmom]

That means you've got October 2017 through September 2018 to nail that BQ race. You can do it!

PS - This is the historical weather for DoLittle and Milwaukee Lakefront. DoLittle is one week prior but a huge difference in T+D in just a span of a week. So while the temps are high right now, I'm fine holding out hope for historical patterns. Less than a T+D of 100 is ideal. Today was in the 150s.

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Great info!! 2011 and 2012 Lakefront look very nice! I'd appreciate a repeat of that, but won't hold out too much hope! Interesting to see the difference in just one week between DoLittle and Lakefront.