To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[DopeyBadger]

Happy Christmas Eve all!
I'm still confused about all the rules, but wanted to get this in before the deadline!

5k: 19:22
10k: 44:44
Half: 1:32:23
Full: 3:20:02
Rank: 35

The game is about guessing what I will run but mitigating risk too. The easy version:

5k - Billy will run no faster than
10k - Billy will run no slower than
HM - Billy will run around this time
M - Billy will run around this time (but hopefully not this time)

 

[DopeyBadger]

Steph
5k- 19:37
10k- 42:00
HM- 1:27:00
M- 3:12:00
Dopey Rank- 18

Gigi
5k- 19:03
10k- 43:44
HM- 1:27:09
M- 3:18:00
Dopey Rank - Pencil (which I interpret as 11)

 

[DopeyBadger]

Brian (BIL)
5k- 19:47
10k- 43:10
HM- 1:32:28
M- 3:12:06
Rank - 36

Heidi (SIL)
5k- 18:00
10k- 42:00
HM- 1:29:00
M- 3:15:00
Rank- 39

 

[mrsg00fy]

Predictions:

5k. 18:48
10k 44:10
Half 1:37:10
Full 3:11:10

Dopey rank 30

 

[opusone]

Merry Christmas!

Prediction Contest Update: now 28 players...

 

[DopeyBadger]

9 Days to Go (Merry Christmas! )



Date - Day - Scheduled Workout (Intervals within desired pace)

12/18/17 - M - MBW
12/19/17 - T - 2 mile WU + 8 x 800m @ CV w/ 45 second RI + 2 mile CD (6/8)
12/20/17 - W - 7 miles @ 7:54-8:28 min/mile
12/21/17 - R - 3 mile WU + 9 miles M Tempo + 3 mile CD (9/9)
12/22/17 - F - 7 miles @ 7:54-8:28 min/mile ***Only did 4.6 miles***
12/23/17 - Sat - 11 miles @ 7:54-8:28 min/mile ***Only did 10.5 miles***
12/24/17 - Sun - 12 miles @ 7:35 min/mile ***Only did 11.2 miles*** (6/7)
12/25/17 - M - MBW

Total (training) mileage = 56.8 miles
Number of SOS intervals within pace = 21/24 (88%)

Monday

Normal medicine ball workout. Left hamstring near the knee feels weird. Kind of sore, and a bit "clicky". Not really sure why since I didn't run on Monday, and didn't really notice any issues after Sunday's Max Long Run.

Tuesday

The hamstring still felt off. I wasn't sure whether the run was going to be accomplishable. It was the last CV (critical velocity) run and essentially the last fast run between now and Dopey.

2 mile WU + 8 x 800m @ CV w/ 45 second RI + 2 mile CD

WC of 31, 8 mph wind, and night.

Critical Velocity Pace = 6:23 min/mile
Critical Velocity window = +/- 5 seconds (6:18-6:28; 3:07.5 - 3:13.5)

The WU was fine, but the hamstring was noticeable. I went in with the mindset that I would shut it down at a moment's notice. Eventually, it was time to start hitting the paces.

CV = 3:13.5, 3:09.4, 3:10.9, 3:13.0, 3:11.0, 3:07.4, 3:08.6, 3:10.5

Other than the hamstring feeling like it was going to pop (never bad enough that I needed to actually stop), the workout was fairly easy. The first interval was a bit slow at the 0.25 mile mark, but I was able to sneak it in. Most every interval was way too fast to start and then I had to pull back to get it within window. The 6th and 7th intervals were just too far gone by the time I noticed to get them in window. It was nice to have a faster run feel relatively easy and yet feel as if I wasn't at 100%. Should help build the confidence that if my leg continues to feel this way, I should be ok.

Wednesday

Heat Acclimation Training begins today. The WC was 22, but I dressed as if it were 0. I wore my columbia heat tights, under armour waffle tights, columbia thermal long sleeve, jacket, heavy gloves and thermal columbia hat. I was sweating buckets so it certainly worked. Hopefully this will help me better prepare for the unpredictable Florida weather!

Average pace was 8:17 with a 136 HR.

Thursday

14 days to go!

3 mile WU + 9 miles M Tempo + 3 mile CD

WC of 25, minimal wind, mostly cloudy and sunny at the end. I took off work to do this run in the morning/mid-day.

Heat Acclimation Training run #2. Dressed as if it were 5-10 degrees. My legs got nice and toasty during those marathon miles.

Marathon Tempo pace = 6:58 min/mile
Marathon Tempo window = +/- 10 seconds

Another day where I wasn't sure what my body would give me. On Monday, I noticed my left hamstring was sore. Couldn't really say why other than it seemed like it stiffened up on me overnight. On Tuesday, it felt like more of the same. The Tuesday run felt a little awkward to start and on a few occasions during the CV pacing it felt on the verge of being bad. Not bad enough to stop, but bad enough to take notice. On Wednesday, it was more of the same with the hamstring still sore. During the Wednesday run, on a few occasions the hamstring would suddenly pop. Again not bad, but disconcerting. I've had this happen before during/after the Dopey 2015 5k. That time I equated it to pushing the pace a touch too hard and because I wasn't able to run in the 3/4 days prior to the event. But this time isn't really the same, so I'm not sure the cause this time around. Regardless, with that other experience I was still able to do quite well in the proceeding 10k, HM, and M. So time will tell how it reacts this time. That's all to say that I entered this run fully intending on shutting it down at the sign of trouble.

M Tempo = 7:02, 7:00, 6:53, 6:56, 6:52, 7:04, 6:53, 6:52, 6:49

Things were a but awkward to start. I was hopeful that things would calm down as the warm-up proceeded. Thankfully things did and today seemed better than yesterday even though today was much quicker overall. Overall the run felt appropriate given it's placement in the training plan. If anything it was a bigger success than normal since I was intentionally overdressed. My legs weren't happy about being so hot, but I told them to deal with it.

Final average pace was 6:56 min/mile, GAP of 6:52, average HR of 147 (historical 148-152).

TRIMP was 212 with a predicted 233.

That just leaves a single Max M Tempo next week Wednesday. Otherwise it's easy street between now and the 5k! Almost time for that victory lap!

Friday

Friday was the beginning of the Christmas Dopey Challenge. 4 Christmases over 4 days, but only 2 houses (SIL and ours) instead of 4 houses. Not sure they were in a crescendo of distance either.

Time was limited on Friday. I was able to leave a few minutes early from work and rush home. I asked Steph about 10 times exactly what time she wanted me in the car to head to Xmas #1. Goal time 5:40pm. So I was out the door as quick as possible and was going to try and squeeze in as much of a run as I could.

WC of 28, 4 mph wind, night. I kept a constant eye on the time and right when I thought I hit my limit I headed home. So I was able to get in 4.6 miles instead of 7. Average pace was 8:19 with a 130 HR. Way overdressed as per usual with HAT. All in all a success. So I ran through the house (maybe a few extra tenths of running in there?) and was able to get in the car at 5:41:10pm. Almost there! But all things considered on all the moving pieces it was a decent attempt on my part.

Saturday

An early morning run because Steph had to leave for work at 7:30am. So I had a 90 min run scheduled and left the house at 6:00am. Given the timing (and that my 11 mile route is actually 11.2) I knew it was going to be cutting it close again. So, I cut the run short at 10.5 miles to ensure I made it home before 7:30am and so Steph could leave for work on time.

WC of 9, 8mph wind, before sunrise. Average pace was a 7:50 with a HR of 133. I really should have checked the weather before leaving because I was not expecting it to be that cold. I still accomplished HAT, but probably not to the full extent.

That afternoon/evening we had Xmas #2!

Sunday

11 days to go!

Heat Acclimation Training Run #5

WC of 17, no wind, and a surprise active snowfall!

Long Run Pace = 7:35 min/mile
Long Run window = +/- 10 seconds

Long Run = 7:26, 7:33, 7:33, 7:35, 7:37, 7:45, 7:46, 7:57, 8:04, 8:20

Last long run! Have to be so thankful that up till now in training the weather has been pretty agreeable. This morning I woke up to check the weather and surprise! it was going to snow this morning. Because of other commitments throughout the day (Xmas #3 and having to go to work for about 2 hours), there was no moving this run. If I had any indication before bed last night, then I certainly wouldn't have slept for 10.5 hours and instead completed the run before the snow fall began. But alas, got to run in the conditions I'm given! So off I went.

The snow accumulation on the road was minimal in the beginning. So maintaining pace wasn't an issue. But the snow kept falling and it kept accumulating. It's not a ton, but it's enough to make a difference in stride, power, efficiency, etc. So around mile 8, I decided that trying to maintain the pace window anymore was not going to be wise. So back to pure effort at that point.

Obviously would have enjoyed my last long run to be in ok conditions, but I work with what I get. All the metrics are still where I expected them to be. So just gearing up for the last week of training and then it's time for that victory lap!

After the run and work was Xmas #3!

Christmas!

Another busy day was on tap. Thankfully, it didn't involve running so that was one less thing to worry about. Santa visited our house and dropped off a plethora of Hot Wheels tracks and accessories. I'd venture to guess G and I will be quite busy designing our own custom tracks.

After Santa visited, we had Xmas #4! Then, after that I had to go into work for another 2 hours. Was able to make it home that night with enough time to enjoy dinner and then head to bed. The whirlwind of Xmas parties was finally over.

G in an Elf Hat!



Steph with the Elf Hat playing ring toss onto it.



What I got for Xmas (running related): 2 pairs Kinvara 8 for Dopey, Punk Rock BOA shorts, Gore Magnitude 2.0 singlet, UA beanie, UA singlet, and 3 pairs of Triumph ISO 3.



The Punk Rock shorts are pretty cool (from mom)! I think they'll go nice with the UA Grey top that Steph surprised me with.



My sister got this Gore Magnitude 2.0 singlet for me. It's feather-light (like 70 grams) and has glued seams (no chafing). It's a real professional quality singlet. I'm excited to give it a go during Dopey weekend. Haven't decided if this will be my HM or M top yet. Still got some time to decide.



Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday season!

 

[michigandergirl]

I applaud you for going out to run in those super cold conditions. The actual temp here this morning was -3 with a WC of -16, along with the 7 inches of snow we got yesterday, I have a new appreciation for my treadmill!!

Love those punk rock shorts.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I applaud you for going out to run in those super cold conditions. The actual temp here this morning was -3 with a WC of -16, along with the 7 inches of snow we got yesterday, I have a new appreciation for my treadmill!!

Yea.... see those temps are just setting in here as well. I'm all like, "Hey Steph wouldn't a treadmill be kind of cool..."

Today = -8 WC
Wednesday (Max M Tempo of 15 miles) = -15 WC
Thursday = 6 WC with 2 in snow
Friday = 2 WC
Saturday = -24 WC (= off?)
Sunday = -15 WC
Monday = -7 WC
Tuesday = -8 WC (before flight?)

So the warmest run from here on will be 6F WC with 2 inches of snow. Bring on Florida!

Love those punk rock shorts.

Thanks!

 

[Anisum]

I'm a bit fan of the punk rock shorts as well.

 

[DopeyBadger]

2018 Walt Disney World Dopey Challenge Prediction Contest - My Guess!

Thanks to @opusone and his penalties he's thrown a little bit of a strategy element into the prediction contest. So without further ado, my guesses and reasoning.

First off, I always look to the past to be my guide on the future. It's not completely predictive of course (looking at you Lakefront 2017), but it can give a general idea of what I've done under similar circumstances.

I first started with my Garmin distance. Disney races are wide roads and hard to hit tangents unless you're being super diligent. So, I looked at my past year's data to see how I stacked up with the pure race distance.



The 5k was 3.17 miles, 10k 6.26 miles, HM 13.20 miles, and M 26.4 miles.

Next, it was all about breaking down those past performances based on what training was like prior:



Leading into Dopey 2016, my training paces were the above. I compared my training fitness paces to my actual race day paces. Going into the Dopey 2016 training plan, I had assessed my 5k at a 7:13 min/mile. On race day I ran a 6:53 min/mile. So a 4.6% faster than training fitness would suggest pace. On down the line, you see a 4.5% better 10k, a virtually even HM, and a 8.8% slower Marathon. That Marathon pace is very close to my long run fitness pace at that time.



In Dopey 2017, these were my training paces. I compared my training paces to my actual results. In 2017, I was darn near even on the 5k/10k based on the training fitness assessment. The 5k was suppose to be 6:39 and it was 6:38. The 10k was suppose to be 6:55 and it was 6:56. The one caveat with the 5k/10k in Dopey 2017 was I was not toeing the line and it certainly impacted the final time. How much is impossible to say, because maybe it allowed me to start slow and finish fast. But there was certainly time left out there on the course. Irregardless, I plan to toe the line this year, but who knows what race day will bring. The marathon is kind of useless from this year, unless the HM is cancelled again. But I essentially ran my M Tempo pace (7:33) in the marathon (7:36) without the HM present.

After looking at both of these through the lens of "training fitness pacing", I also tried to evaluate what I believed to be my "current fitness pacing" was entering the race. During 2016 Dopey training, I ran a HM about 5 weeks before race day. My training fitness HM was a 7:52, but on race day in December I ran a 7:32. So there were indications that I was indeed faster entering Dopey 2016, then my original training paces would have suggested.



Instead, this suggested my 5k was to be 6:56, 10k 7:13, HM 7:32, and M around 7:52. On race day it was 6:53, 7:11, 7:49, and 8:55. So about 1% faster for 5k/10k, 4% slower for HM, and 13% slower for M (EB pace).

These three scenarios gave me something to work with. Take the different calculated paces, with the average distance in each race, and calculate a range. Then use @opusone 's penalties to guide my guesses based on mitigating risk.

Based on the last couple of weeks training, I feel comfortable saying my "current fitness pacing" is somewhere around here.



That EA, EB, LR, 10k and Daniels T (6:25) are all roughly where things felt right. The M Tempo I certainly touched a few times recently in training. The 5k pace of 5:59 seems crazy nuts, because that 6:08 pacing felt pretty tough a few weeks ago. That 5k pace is probably the only one that didn't feel right.



So I went through and plugged in the paces into the different races. TF= Training Fitness (and thus my original training plan paces) and CF = Current Fitness (as based on how I feel at the moment). I used those past historical scenarios from Dopey 2016 and Dopey 2017 to try and make some guessing windows. First I did just straight up TF. Took the pace and multiplied by the distance by Garmin. The orange "M Pace" is comparing my Nov 2014 marathon to my Dopey 2015 marathon (only 2.5% difference). This is probably the least likely of the uses of the calculations. The next grouping was straight up Current Fitness. Then the green boxes are using the TF 2016 Dopey model (based on training paces going into cycle for Dopey 2016 and training vs results). Lastly, the red model was using my CF (as estimated by my 1:38HM prior to Dopey 2016) and comparing to results of that weekend.



In summary, it comes out with this. If I use the green model (TF Dopey 2016) I get some of the faster end predictions of 18:33 5k, 38:12 10k, 1:27 HM and 3:20 M. The red model is more in the middle slower end with 18:47 5k, 38:39 10k, 1:29 HM, and 3:22 M. Then the TF model (just using my current training fitness pacing) is usually the slower end of the spectrum (this would be the Dopey 2017 model) with a 5k at 19:27, 40:00 10k, 1:28 HM, and 3:15 M.



I took the fast end and slow end of the prediction models to try and come up with a reasonable window. Since there are penalties, then I need to take that into account. So the 5k penalty is zero points if I guess to slow. The fastest predicted 5k is a 18:33 (based on TF of Dopey 2016). That's a 5:51 min/mile for 3.17 miles. My lifetime mile PR is 6:01 from April Bunny Head Time Trial. I've certainly set fastest mile PRs all together in races before (I think Dopey 2016 5k was a case). So it's not impossible, but that seems fast for me. If this were a pure guess as close to time game, then I'd probably be closer to 19:00-19:30 as my guess. But since there's a risk to guessing too slow, I'm going to say 18:25. It gives me a little wiggle room on the bottom. It's pretty far from the likeliest time (19:00-19:30), but the safer choice since three of four models say sub-19 is possible.

Next was the 10k. The opposite game here. Don't guess too fast. Which means I need to be on the slower side of the spectrum. Again, three of four models say a sub-40. That would be a 6:23 min/mile. That at least seems reasonable to me. But is a PR in a 10k race of 3.5 minutes (43:25) really my floor? That seems far too bullish to me. If I guess too fast, then zero points. If this were a pure guess, then I'd probably go 39-40 min. But with the penalty in mind, I'm going with 41:15.

Next was the HM. All four time slots have it being between 1:26 to 1:29. It's a game of +/- 3 min. So I view this time as more of a window, then a guess. What's the likeliest 6 min window for the HM? There's nothing to suggest that a HM CF is possible (1:26) from past data. So it would seem the real max is 1:27:35. So, let's go with 1:27. Then, a +3 min would be 1:30 as a possible guess time. The opposite side of that is 1:33. I ran a 1:33 during the 1st half of Lakefront 2017 and I wasn't really feeling hit. So I find that to be a good floor projection. So, I think I'll go with 1:30:00 as my HM guess (gives me 1:27 to 1:33 to score points).

Lastly, the marathon. The big enchilada! The real mega point scoring round. Since these scores are multiplied by race distance, then the marathon is super important to the final result. It's 2x more important than the HM, 4.2x more important than the 10k, and 8.4x more important than the 5k. It really really matters for the final score! But of course @opusone really wants to screw with our minds. Any guess within 1 minute of the actual time score zero points. So, you want to be the closest not close guess. The two likeliest models are really really close to each other. A 3:20:26 and 3:22:53. Seems like the marathon is going to be right around a 3:20-3:22. This would be a bit of a bummer because I would fall just short of the Sextuple PR Dopey Challenge (marathon PR of 3:14). But we shall see if I can beat the model! As for a guess, I guess I don't want to be right on 3:20 or 3:22. So really nothing within 3:19-3:23 is a safe guess. Since the slower side is more likely than the faster side (when predicting marathon performance), I'll go with a 3:18:10. Puts me outside the window of 3:19-3:23, but still allows me to reach for the possible marathon PR at 3:14 (so 3:13-3:15 would end up with zero points).

As for the Dopey Rank, hard to say. There were about 20% more bibs this year than last (~8000 vs ~9500), but my bib # seems to suggest there weren't that many extra fast people (more so more people with lower bibs were added vs last year). So I'd say the Dopey rank near the top will be unaffected. Based on the last three years a Dopey time of ~5:45 (19 min, 40 min, 1:27, 3:19) was 28th, 14th, and 26th. Since the likeliness of the Dopey Rank tiebreaker being relevant, I'll go with 25th.

So officially, those are my guesses:

5k- 18:25
10k - 41:15
HM - 1:30:00
M - 3:18:10
Dopey Rank - 25th

Now the fun part, actually getting to race!

 

[DopeyBadger]

I'm a bit fan of the punk rock shorts as well.

Thanks! They have a matching top. I was actually expecting the singlet and not the shorts. I like them though. I think BOA may be one of my new go-tos for running singlets/shorts because they fit my style (sometimes). They fit really nice as well.

 

[KSellers88]

Well now I feel like a sissy for complaining about running in 30-40 degree weather.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Well now I feel like a sissy for complaining about running in 30-40 degree weather.

It's all relative right! I don't have those South summer heat+humidity like you do. But yea, 30-40 temps sound like singlet and shorts weather to me.

 

[evre13]

Predictions:

5k - 19:17
10k - 40:25
Half - 1:34:13
Full - 3:17:02
Dopey Rank - 35

Good luck!

 

[kski907]

Merry Belated Christmas. Looks like Santa was good to you. Love the shorts. Also love the Dopey christmas challenge reference. We used to have multiple gatherings too when we lived closer to family. Sounds like you still got some solid running in. I like all the analysis that went into your predictions. I wish my brain worked that way, I just usually pick the horse with the coolest name. Best wishes for the new year and look forward to hearing about your race success.

 

[KSellers88]

It's all relative right! I don't have those South summer heat+humidity like you do. But yea, 30-40 temps sound like singlet and shorts weather to me.

LOL! I'd much rather have that heat and humidity. This is me in 30-40 degree weather!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Merry Belated Christmas.

Merry Belated Christmas to you as well!

Looks like Santa was good to you. Love the shorts.

The people around me know what I like I guess. Sounds like the shorts are a big hit!

Also love the Dopey christmas challenge reference.

At some moments, I felt like the run was easier than the christmas version.

Sounds like you still got some solid running in.

Thanks! I'm happy with what I could get accomplished given the shortened time availability.

I like all the analysis that went into your predictions. I wish my brain worked that way, I just usually pick the horse with the coolest name.

Thanks! It's part of the fun for me. Trying to pre-predict results and use my science/data skills in my personal life. There's something to be said for gut instinct and random guessing as well. Plenty of successful strategies. You can see thus far in the three contests, I've yet to finish first. So someone out there's got some ideas of their own too.

Best wishes for the new year and look forward to hearing about your race success.

Thanks and excited to hear about yours as well!

LOL! I'd much rather have that heat and humidity. This is me in 30-40 degree weather!

LOL! And in those temps I'd look like this:

Heck, even last year's marathon with 25F WC:



Still rocking the shorts!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Bradley (work)
5k- 19:40
10k- 43:18
HM- 1:27:55
M- 3:05:50
Rank-?

 

[opusone]

Prediction Contest Update: 31 players so far... today is the last day to enter!

 

[DopeyBadger]

First day on the 10-day forecast is up!



T+D of 88 for the 5k with a light wind (8 mph). Not too shabby!