You are completely accurate - it depends on your family's preferences! Deciding whether or not to do it is a really tough decision!
I have the free DDP promo for my trip in Feb. After looking carefully at all of the menus, I determined we would definitely not pay out of pocket for a dining plan in the future. If I could have switched to the room-only discount promo, I would have. There weren't any standard rooms available at our resort (CSR).
If your family does not typically order dessert at lunch & dinner, and if you typically drink mostly water at your meals, it is likely not worth buying into. Are you big snack eaters in between meals? If you don't foresee each person in your party getting a snack per day, that is another possible reason to not purchase the dining plan.
You really do need to look at each menu & the prices and add in taxes to see if you might come out ahead, or at least break even. I know there are menus & prices listed on AllEars, but I find the lists at easyWDW.com to be MUCH more accurate and updated, since he visits WDW almost daily. And, you will see pictures, which is helpful!
I know if I weren't on the DDP I would not even consider ordering some of the steaks and more expensive TS meal options which would minimize expenses...so if you want to let your hair down and have the "freedom" to order anything without thinking twice about it, maybe you want to purchase it.
I think with the increase in prices for 2012 it will be very hard for me to justify paying for any dining plan. I will say it's still a good deal if you can get the free dining promo. It's a very good deal with free dining if you have multiple people in the same room especially 3 or more. There can be some better deals for deluxe resort room discounts that may exceed free dining promos, but most often free dining is the deal to have. I've only paid for the regular DP once and when we did prices were more reasonable and I would say more worth it (appetizers were included at the time).
Our eating habits just don't include dessert normally; so, the DP gets less valuable for us. For one my hubby is diabetic. I know there are some alternative desserts for him with TS meals, but they are usually very cheap desserts on the dining plan and they don't taste that great anyway. Most of the time we give his dessert away or don't get one at all. In addition, he's vegan (trying to help the diabetes this way); so, the dining plan is not that great for choices in this regard. You are usually limited to a few vegan choices at each place when you are vegan. My mom, who travels with us, eats very small meals (she would like kid meals better) and so that's against us on the DP, too. I think I get my money's worth, but then I find myself going for the most expensive places and meals on both TS and CS to make up for the other two in my party. I really don't get to experience the variety that Disney has to offer for meals that way; because, we keep going back to the same places over and over again and getting the same meals over and over again.
If you are willing to do lunch for a TS meal the DP is less attractive.
If you are okay with tap water for your drinks, the plan is less attractive, as well. If you don't normally do dessert, the DP is less attractive, too. If you don't use all your snack credits then the plans become less valuable. These points have all been made by other posters.
In the end it really gets down to the math. I review the menus all the time. One bonus with the dining plan is you don't pay sales taxes. I have found that the Fastasmic and the Candlelight Processional (Xmas only) packages can help make the TS dining plans more worth it. With these special packages you get an appetizer; so, it makes the dining plan credits more valuable in a way on the regular TS DP. You get preferred seating for the shows, too.
Also, new in 2012 is having to hold your reservation for TS for a lot of restaurants with your credit card. If you are a no show that day everyone gets charged with a cancellation fee.
I think what I have realized through the years is that the DPs are not customized enough and one size needs to basically fit all in each category of plans. This may or may not work for everyone. This all becomes very much an individual decision. It's very much a gray area for all of us. There's no real good answer to this question.
I think my two, biggest drawbacks about the plans is the time factor involved with TS meals and the extra cost to tip. For the time factor, you have to be rigid about getting there for your time slot and then you have to wait at least 15 minutes or longer to get seated normally. I find the waits for Cape May much longer than normal. Then add the time to enjoy the meal which is much longer than doing CS. For gratuity, I'm not against tipping and we are generous, but it has to be added to the cost of TS meals.
With a 4 night stay I rather have more park time than eating time. This makes the plans less attractive to me.
There's nothing wrong with the DPs but if you are looking at it from a cost prospective than you really need to do the math for your group.
