Timing DVC Purchase

[MouseOfCards]

We've rented points from other DVC members in the past resulting in great vacations. Now, as we plan another Disney trip, we're kicking ourselves for not looking at purchasing DVC earlier (would probably have made up the purchase cost by now). And adding to the disappointment, seems like DVC pricing just keeps going up!

This is probably a question for long-time owners, but if there is a downturn (or recession) in the economy, will DVC selling prices go down as well (like the stock market)? Is there a likely drop in the future?

Thanks for your insights!

 

[DVC Mike]

We've rented points from other DVC members in the past resulting in great vacations. Now, as we plan another Disney trip, we're kicking ourselves for not looking at purchasing DVC earlier (would probably have made up the purchase cost by now). And adding to the disappointment, seems like DVC pricing just keeps going up!

This is probably a question for long-time owners, but if there is a downturn (or recession) in the economy, will DVC selling prices go down as well (like the stock market)? Is there a likely drop in the future?

Thanks for your insights!

DVC Direct Prices don't go down, but Disney may offer increased incentives. Resale prices fluctuate, and seem to be high right now. A recession would likely result in lower resale prices, but who can predict when the next one will be?

 

[drusba]

Despite economic downturns or collapses like the Great Recession, Disney has always managed to raise and never lower prices since DVC started in the early 1990s, although during the Great Recession we saw some increases in incentives that effectively lowered asking price more than usual. The resale market is more attune to economic downturns and practically collapsed in 2009, and prices significantly decreased and remained quite low till about 2012 when they started to rise a little again and they have actually gone up quite a bit just in the last year and a half or so.

 

[disneynutz]

I would spend many hours learning all about the DVC and then buy resale if your education and cost study points you in that direction. Cost won't go down much as long as people are buying and Disney keeps raising prices. Direct sales are over 100,000 points per month so people are buying.

Bill

 

[com_op_2000]

The current end-of-life contacts scheduled for 2042 should have there resale prices start going down @2035, if there is not a recession before hand. That is the point at which the number of years left on the contact will not support the current prices to recover the initial cost.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

It is very difficult to predict what prices would do in a major recession. You would expect traffic to the theme parks to slow down, and this traffic drives direct sales. But purchase of DVC is a luxury, and you have to be fairly affluent to think about pre-paying for luxury accommodations for the next 30-50 years.

So what happens to the affluent in a recession? They still have money, but they don't want to spend it conspicuously. If their neighbor is out of work, they don't necessarily want to buy a new car or add on to their house or install a pool. It is like rubbing your neighbor's nose in your affluence. So the affluent look for ways to spend money that is not so visible at home. Travel (and things like DVC) are a great way to do this. You can have an affluent lifestyle without being conspicuous at home. So the demand for Disney overall may go down, but the demand for Disney DVC and Luxury resorts may actually go up.

Or not.

 

[kamik86]

Hope there isn't a dip in the near future... I have a few rentals out right now but want to sell after that. DVC was a good product and great for us for a time but life threw us a curve ball that has drastically changed our future vacation plans to not include disney nearly as much as we originally thought it would.