Tikiman's latest report on Poly DVC

[dizfan]

The Poly hotel side could have rejected the plans for the larger Poly DVC. However, the reasoning of VGF selling so fast does not make sense to me.

If VGF is selling that fast, raise the price. Disney is a for profit company and has a responsibility to shareholders.

If VGF still sells that fast at a higher price, build larger Poly DVC in two phases. Not all rooms have to be completed when sales would start. (AKV and SSR were not all completed when sales started)

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

Could Disney be scaling back the project because credit is still tight or they anticipate higher interest rates or a weaker economy to affect sales?

I would think Disney would have staff or consultants that would be able to project future economic conditions better than the average Joe.

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

DVC has been burned by this bad economy before.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

this seems logical to me. From these boards, I thought VGF was selling well. Does anyone know if that is the case? Not just existing owners but from new owners as well? Since it is a small resort, they will need something else to offer new buyers in the not so distant future.

I wonder. When BLT was selling there seemed to consistently be more posts from new owners than I've noticed with VGF. All observational though at this time and it would probably be another month or two to fully clear out those who were waiting. Or maybe they are buying but don't know of or are not finding the DIS.

 

[Sammie]

The original rumor is now a new scaled-back rumor, eh?

Until I see both some plans and related construction taking place, it's all just rumored possibilities.

I still think a Poly DVC is inevitable.

I am with Mike, nothing is official until DVC makes an annoucement.

 

[wdrl]

As of July 23, 2013, DVD has recorded sales on almost 2,000 deeds and over 10% of the points for the Villas at Disney's Grand Floridian Resort. However, only Disney knows whether these sales amounts are good, bad, or right on target with projections.

As dizfan mentioned above, DVD will probably drag out VGF's marketing period by hiking its base price two or three times over the next year. But I believe VGF will be considered "sold out" for marketing purposes in about a year. Disney's Animal Kingdom Villas, which still has about 640,000 points to sell, should also reach "sold out" status by next year.

 

[jerseyduke]

The Tahiti idea makes some sense.

My GF and I checked into Tahiti, Room 3001, on 12/2/12 staying to 12/12/12. We went to the front desk on 12/6 and asked them to move us to another resort.

I had stayed at the POLY about 10 times (love it),

It was gross. The room was filthy. They offered to move us to another room, but we questioned how good that would be since there was what appeared to be bodily excretions (snot or mucus) on the inside of the elevator doors every day of our stay.

I guess it was built in 1985, and not cleaned since.

 

[DebbieB]

DVC has been burned by this bad economy before.

When? They seem to keep selling with ever increasing prices.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I still think they will build another "Kidani village" at Animal Kingdom. I know I'm in the minority but it has always been my belief that the road to nowhere at Kidani is to eventually lead to yet another AK Villa. We shall see.

(In re: to AK points being sold out this year.)

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

When? They seem to keep selling with ever increasing prices.

There are some reasons for that. Notably, this bad economy has not effected the well to do as much as the poor and lower middle class. They chose to sell the products more slowly at a higher price. To some degree, that is a marketing decision influenced by economics and demographics.

I cannot give the specifics but it seemed like Disney had quite a bit of inventory in the Fall of 2008. I'm thinking Aulani had just come on line, and BLT was in full sales. I do recall that Disney had problems when "easy" credit dried up for the buyers. I don't recall exactly what happened, but there was something that happened that had major effects on the DVC bottom line. Does anyone recall what I'm talking about?

 

[SpaceMountain77]

I am so surprised that more of you have not considered the bigger picture.

When I first read the Tikiman’s Facebook post a few days ago, I immediately wondered if the plans for the Polynesian were scaled back in favor of a fourth monorail resort.

Over the years, I have amassed quite the collection of official and unofficial Imagineering books. Shoreline engineering, around Bay Lake and the Seven Seas Lagoon is frequently mentioned. Moreover, within those texts, you will also find discussion of failed attempts to build on the land marked for the Mediterranean/Venetian resort because of sinkholes and shoreline stabilization issues.

The addition of Bay Lake Tower and the Villas at the Grand Floridian to Bay Lake and the Seven Seas Lagoon, respectively, demonstrates Disney’s ability to successfully alter the natural shoreline system in order to stabilize it.

Last year, around the time sight balloons were spotted at the Polynesian, sight balloons were also spotted on the site of the Mediterranean/Venetian.

My friends, the stars are aligning:

1) Disney has mastered shoreline engineering
2) The Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian are selling well
3) The planned DVC resort at Disney’s Polynesian is rumored to be scaled back
4) Sight balloons were used on the site of the Mediterranean/Venetian

If the planned DVC resort for the Polynesian is scaled back, then the fourth monorail resort is finally coming and it will be a deluxe/DVC hybrid, like Disney’s BoardWalk Villas. Now, the question is, will the resort mirror Fantasyland or Liberty Square.

 

[nabi]

I think I'm missing something.... what/where is the Mediterranean/Venetian? Is this suggesting a whole new resort all together, rather than adding a DVC to an existing resort?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I immediately wondered if the plans for the Polynesian were scaled back in favor of a fourth monorail resort.

It crossed my mind. But I think what's more likely is a DHS location first with all the energy and $$$$'s that it appears will be pumped into that park.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

I think I'm missing something.... what/where is the Mediterranean/Venetian? Is this suggesting a whole new resort all together, rather than adding a DVC to an existing resort?

The original plans for WDW, dating back to the late 1960s and early 1970s, called for 5 Magic Kingdom area resorts. If you run a Google images search, you will find vintage postcards from proposed resorts.

After leaving the Magic Kingdom, the monorail was to have 4 resort stops (in order of route): Tempo Bay (which became the Contemporary), Mediterranean, Polynesian Village and Asian. A second monorail beam was to be constructed along the eastern side of the Magic Kingdom, in the northwest area of Bay Lake, leading to a Persian resort.

The Mediterranean and Persian resorts were never developed. The site for the Asian resort was developed, but it later became home to Disney's Grand Floridian Beach Resort in the 1980s.

With the success of the Grand Floridian Beach Resort, Eisner wanted to move forward with a Venetian-themed resort, on the site marked for the Mediterranean, but shoreline engineering has often been cited for its failed development.

For over 40 years, this prime site on the monorail beam has remained undeveloped. Disney now has the technology to develop this land and I suspect that we will eventually see a Bavarian or medieval village resort on this site, adding a Fantasyland-themed resort to the Magic Kingdom area, and finishing the mirroring of the Magic Kingdom and Magic Kingdom area resorts.

 

[dizfan]

There are some reasons for that. Notably, this bad economy has not effected the well to do as much as the poor and lower middle class. They chose to sell the products more slowly at a higher price. To some degree, that is a marketing decision influenced by economics and demographics.

I cannot give the specifics but it seemed like Disney had quite a bit of inventory in the Fall of 2008. I'm thinking Aulani had just come on line, and BLT was in full sales. I do recall that Disney had problems when "easy" credit dried up for the buyers. I don't recall exactly what happened, but there was something that happened that had major effects on the DVC bottom line. Does anyone recall what I'm talking about?

BLT sales started fall 2008. Fall 2008, people were literally pulling money out of banks for fear of 1929 style bank runs. They opened Kidani, BLT, THV, and VGC in 2009. Basically, they added over 10 million points at the same time they were starting to receive a ton f points back from foreclosures.

Things were so bad that Disney had to do there own financing. The company hey used to use would no longer (or maybe could no longer) provide financing.

Aulani was another example of bad timing, but completely unpredictable. Shortly after the sales center opened in Japan, the tsunami hit and devastated the Japan economy.

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

BLT sales started fall 2008. Fall 2008, people were literally pulling money out of banks for fear of 1929 style bank runs. They opened Kidani, BLT, THV, and VGC in 2009. Basically, they added over 10 million points at the same time they were starting to receive a ton f points back from foreclosures.

Things were so bad that Disney had to do there own financing. The company hey used to use would no longer (or maybe could no longer) provide financing.

Aulani was another example of bad timing, but completely unpredictable. Shortly after the sales center opened in Japan, the tsunami hit and devastated the Japan economy.

That was the negative effective from the credit crunch I was trying to think of.

So yes, DVC (and I'm sure many other big corporations) were kind of caught with their pants down. They made huge capitol outlays just prior to a high finance bank catastrophe. I don't profess to be an expert in economics (although I have taught college economics principles for 13 years), but I do know that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the financial markets.

If I were a betting person, I would say the finance people are saying steady as she goes, keep it small, build incrementally. Do your best to sell it as you build it.

Is GFV the first brand new DVC resort announced since 2009?

 

[cwdefouw]

I still think they will build another "Kidani village" at Animal Kingdom. I know I'm in the minority but it has always been my belief that the road to nowhere at Kidani is to eventually lead to yet another AK Villa. We shall see.

(In re: to AK points being sold out this year.)

Off topic, but that "Road to Nowhere" is not really a road to nowhere, it leads to the animal barn behind Kidani Village and then on to the animal barn between Kidani and Jambo and eventually into the Sunset Savannah. They are really right up against the property line in that area. I am not sure how they could build another Kidani and all of the associated infrastructure in that location. Not to mention that it would likely have to be a separate time share because of the length of time between the existing buildings going into the condo and when any new construction would open.

 

[LSchrow]

The original plans for WDW, dating back to the late 1960s and early 1970s, called for 5 Magic Kingdom area resorts. If you run a Google images search, you will find vintage postcards from proposed resorts.

After leaving the Magic Kingdom, the monorail was to have 4 resort stops (in order of route): Tempo Bay (which became the Contemporary), Mediterranean, Polynesian Village and Asian. A second monorail beam was to be constructed along the eastern side of the Magic Kingdom, in the northwest area of Bay Lake, leading to a Persian resort.

The Mediterranean and Persian resorts were never developed. The site for the Asian resort was developed, but it later became home to Disney's Grand Floridian Beach Resort in the 1980s.

With the success of the Grand Floridian Beach Resort, Eisner wanted to move forward with a Venetian-themed resort, on the site marked for the Mediterranean, but shoreline engineering has often been cited for its failed development.

For over 40 years, this prime site on the monorail beam has remained undeveloped. Disney now has the technology to develop this land and I suspect that we will eventually see a Bavarian or medieval village resort on this site, adding a Fantasyland-themed resort to the Magic Kingdom area, and finishing the mirroring of the Magic Kingdom and Magic Kingdom area resorts.

i vaguely remember some of these ideas/rumors that were around - thanks for the great post

 

[cbnsoul]

Tim just posted this on DVCnews. The rumors look to (hopefully!) be true!

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/resorts/other--proposed-resorts/2347-new-permits-suggest-poly-work-imminent

My only fear, likely unwarranted, is that this is merely an addition to Poly the resort rather than a Poly DVC.

 

[jerseyduke]

Based on VGF time frames, I guess I got two years to save for a fixed week (if they offer it)