Thoughts on Aul dues, will they increase like VB/HHI

[VGCgroupie]

Stemming from a discussion on another thread I wanted to start a new thread to get others opinions on Aulani dues. Im strongly considering an Aul-s purchase and decided to dive into history of dues. But I am new to DVC and thought I’d get opinions on if Aulani will increase dues drastically like HHI and VB since it’s a beach resort or since its not prime to hurricanes the beach doesn’t make a big impact on dues.

Comparing it to BLT which I’m also considering this is what I found.

- BLT has increased 4.367% per year
(206.81% over the life thus far)
- Aulani-S has increased 4.180% per year
(170.3% over the life thus far)
- BLT has 2 years more data on AUL.


Appreciate any thoughts and opinions. Also please let me know if you don’t think my math in not accurate

 

[Anthony1971]

Dues will go up at all resorts period. To try to gauge if one resort will exceed another is a gamble at best. The best advice is the buy in is the cheaper over dues over time that means saving or paying X now is irrelevant later. Ask yourself if this is where you will travel for the next 20 years. Please keep a realistic cost to travel and food in mind….. If you plan on other resorts and other destinations then buying at an outlying Disney resort may not be right for you. There are options…..
The dues are supposed to take into account normal maintenance over time. Aulani has used any concession it may have received when built so the dues should rise at a consistent percent each year. If there is a hurricane, the beach is washed away or water levels rise or a fire or ?? Something that could cause an extraordinary event will likely be reflected in a dues increase.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Stemming from a discussion on another thread I wanted to start a new thread to get others opinions on Aulani dues. Im strongly considering an Aul-s purchase and decided to dive into history of dues. But I am new to DVC and thought I’d get opinions on if Aulani will increase dues drastically like HHI and VB since it’s a beach resort or since its not prime to hurricanes the beach doesn’t make a big impact on dues.

Comparing it to BLT which I’m also considering this is what I found.

- BLT has increased 6.68% per year (106.81% over the life).
- Aulani has increased 5.02% per year (70.30% over the life).
- BLT has 2 years more data on AUL.
- Aul needs only 3.4% more of an increase hike over BLT to be matched.

Appreciate any thoughts and opinions. Also please let me know if you don’t think my math in not accurate

I’d buy where you want to have the home resort booking window and think you will travel to more often.

I also would suggest running the numbers compared to getting some very cheap unsubsidized points. There were a couple screaming deals that popped up earlier in the year (#Team250ptAULS), but in general I find the that sellers will price away most of the value of the subsidy unless you hold the contract for a VERY long time.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I’d buy where you want to have the home resort booking window and think you will travel to more often.

I also would suggest running the numbers compared to getting some very cheap unsubsidized points. There were a couple screaming deals that popped up earlier in the year (#Team250ptAULS), but in general I find the that sellers will price away most of the value of the subsidy unless you hold the contract for a VERY long time.

I saw those. The fact that they were loaded was super sweet.

 

[Cybertruck]

@CastAStone had a good summary of things to consider as a starting point. Maybe when I retired next year I could build a worksheet* on all the annual reports points, revenues and expenses. SSR and OKW have larger labor costs but AUL has a high cost of living so labor dollars expenses are higher.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/i...the-site-i-look-at-most.3949748/post-65607791

(*My Honey Do List continues to grow as I get closer to retirement )

 

[Cybertruck]

@VGCgroupie I feel foolish now I just read the post where you quoted this to start of a new thread

 

[VGCgroupie]

I’d buy where you want to have the home resort booking window and think you will travel to more often.

I also would suggest running the numbers compared to getting some very cheap unsubsidized points. There were a couple screaming deals that popped up earlier in the year (#Team250ptAULS), but in general I find the that sellers will price away most of the value of the subsidy unless you hold the contract for a VERY long time.

I did the math VS a low price non sub and there is no comparison. It's so shocking that Im pretty sure I did my math wrong and I have to have my husband check it for me. Stay tuned..

 

[AstroBlasters]

I did the math VS a low price non sub and there is no comparison. It's so shocking that Im pretty sure I did my math wrong and I have to have my husband check it for me. Stay tuned..

Are you adding the lost value of the interest earned on the lower purchase price of the unsubsidized?

 

[VGCgroupie]

Are you adding the lost value of the interest earned on the lower purchase price of the unsubsidized?

No. That’s pretty involved since there is so many factors at play and will vary person to person. Some don’t pay taxes on gains some do, some lose money in investments some don’t. Some make 5% some make can make more. I’m looking at it as an apples to apples money sitting in a checking account standpoint which I know is not the most financially responsible way to look at it. it’s just a quick way of showing how dues makes a large impact on overall cost of a contract.

Over the life of the contact at 100 points subsided at $120pp is the same as paying $28pp non subsidized. Of course big financial up front cost vs very low up front financial cost. But the numbers are still shocking none the less. I hope Aulani never sees $28pp in the near future if so all of DVC would likely be in trouble at that point imo.

 

[CastAStone]

@CastAStone had a good summary of things to consider as a starting point. Maybe when I retired next year I could build a worksheet* on all the annual reports points, revenues and expenses. SSR and OKW have larger labor costs but AUL has a high cost of living so labor dollars expenses are higher.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/i...the-site-i-look-at-most.3949748/post-65607791

(*My Honey Do List continues to grow as I get closer to retirement )

For Aulani add “ocean” “ocean” and “ocean”, mixed with climate change risk. I wouldn’t want to own Aulani personally. But I am excited to stay there next year on my SSR points.

 

[CastAStone]

Stemming from a discussion on another thread I wanted to start a new thread to get others opinions on Aulani dues. Im strongly considering an Aul-s purchase and decided to dive into history of dues. But I am new to DVC and thought I’d get opinions on if Aulani will increase dues drastically like HHI and VB since it’s a beach resort or since its not prime to hurricanes the beach doesn’t make a big impact on dues.

Comparing it to BLT which I’m also considering this is what I found.

- BLT has increased 6.68% per year (106.81% over the life).
- Aulani has increased 5.02% per year (70.30% over the life).
- BLT has 2 years more data on AUL.
- Aul needs only 3.4% more of an increase hike over BLT to be matched.

Appreciate any thoughts and opinions. Also please let me know if you don’t think my math in not accurate

Hurricane Iniki repair costs for the Grand Hyatt Kauai were $30M in 1993. That’s $66M in todays dollars, but the way construction costs have gone over the last 30 years it would probably cost $200M today.

And it was closed for a year. That’s my thoughts on dues. Lots of risk.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1993-04-18-tr-24281-story.html

 

[VGCgroupie]

For Aulani add “ocean” “ocean” and “ocean”, mixed with climate change risk. I wouldn’t want to own Aulani personally. But I am excited to stay there next year on my SSR points.

I’m staying next month at Aulani on my CCV points.

I’m looking for the best bang for my buck in the DVC world for SAP not due to my love for Aulani.

Question for you. My calculations above are not compounded for due increases per year do the calculations need to be compounded to be accurate? Hopefully I am making sense I am not a finance/math pro.

 

[CastAStone]

I’m staying next month at Aulani on my CCV points.

I’m looking for the best bang for my buck in the DVC world for SAP not due to my love for Aulani.

Question for you. My calculations above are not compounded for due increases per year do the calculations need to be compounded to be accurate? Hopefully I am making sense I am not a finance/math pro.

I really like @skier_pete ’s dues tables for historical analysis and compound growth rates, at https://www.dvchelp.com/page/maintenance-fees-current-and-historical

It’s interesting because you can kind of see what the drivers are. The WDW resorts had much larger increases for several years after they agreed with the union to stop paying their workers like garbage in 2018. Aulani hasn’t had that.

I haven’t done the math myself but his increase numbers are lower than yours for both resorts.

I would also caution just on forecasting dues increases in general, and especially using history to do that. Look at OKW - small increases through 2002, then big increases through 2006, then small again through 2016, then big ever since. Why? I dunno.

I think of it this way: there’s no real reason to think that Aulani’s dues will increase too much more than a resort in central Florida if nothing goes wrong. There’s already presumably a huge budget for everyday ocean wear and tear. But the downside risk at Aulani is so, so, so much greater. You could get a special assessment for several times one year’s dues. You could see the resort close for a year or forever in the case of a catastrophic event. I get that there’s a price where SAP might make sense and people have definitely done that, but I think it’s too risky.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I really like @skier_pete ’s dues tables for historical analysis and compound growth rates, at https://www.dvchelp.com/page/maintenance-fees-current-and-historical

It’s interesting because you can kind of see what the drivers are. The WDW resorts had much larger increases for several years after they agreed with the union to stop paying their workers like garbage in 2018. Aulani hasn’t had that.

I haven’t done the math myself but his increase numbers are lower than yours for both resorts.

I would also caution just on forecasting dues increases in general, and especially using history to do that. Look at OKW - small increases through 2002, then big increases through 2006, then small again through 2016, then big ever since. Why? I dunno.

I think of it this way: there’s no real reason to think that Aulani’s dues will increase too much more than a resort in central Florida if nothing goes wrong. There’s already presumably a huge budget for everyday ocean wear and tear. But the downside risk at Aulani is so, so, so much greater. You could get a special assessment for several times one year’s dues. You could see the resort close for a year or forever in the case of a catastrophic event. I get that there’s a price where SAP might make sense and people have definitely done that, but I think it’s too risky.

Well this site is pretty amazing thank you for it! It would’ve saved me a ton of time. I seen the dollar figures on DVC news website but then took that to get my percentages. Pete’s breakdown is similiar to my compounded %. I’m going to update the main post to reflect the compounded numbers.

Everyone says “buy where you want to stay”. I want to stay everywhere. Ha!

 

[VGCgroupie]

Decided to decline the sellers counter on an Aulani contract until I can research more. Since I’m still torn between BLT and AUL-S purely for SAP (also renting points to cover other vacations) it’s probably not in my best interest to buy when I’m not 100% all in on the choice.

Please keep the opinions coming, I’m needing/wanting to learn more.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Bumping up to see if anyone else has an opinion to chime in with.

 

[DVChris]

One additional item to consider is that when selling an Aulani contract, you will be subject to HARPTA which is a Withholding Tax on Sales of Hawaii Real Property by Nonresident Persons on any gain on the sale. The current rate is 7.25%. You can file a tax return in Hawaii to try to get it back. I would only buy Aulani if you wanted to stay during the busier months and needed the 7-11 months window.

 

[VGCgroupie]

One additional item to consider is that when selling an Aulani contract, you will be subject to HARPTA which is a Withholding Tax on Sales of Hawaii Real Property by Nonresident Persons on any gain on the sale. The current rate is 7.25%. You can file a tax return in Hawaii to try to get it back. I would only buy Aulani if you wanted to stay during the busier months and needed the 7-11 months window.

Thanks! This is very helpful, I had seen HARPTA in mentioned in passing but I had never paid much attention and forgot all about it.

 

[ehh]

Bumping up to see if anyone else has an opinion to chime in with.

I have some numerical stuff to contribute, I guess...

5yr CAGR of AUL peaked at 5.05% for 2020 dues. Overall range has been 3.46% - 5.05%. Overall, this can be considered the middle of the road for rate of dues increases.

For comparison:

• VGC's lowest ever 5yr CAGR was 4.89% for the 2019 dues...other years have had a 5yr CAGR at 5.09% or higher.
• BLT's lowest ever 5yr CAGR was 3.47% (in 2024). Other years have had 4.63% - 6.29%.
• VGF's highest ever 5yr CAGR is 3.64% (in 2023). Other years have had 2.52% - 3.58%.
• Since 2019, SSR's lowest 5yr CAGR was 4.91% (in 2024). Other years since 2019 have had a 5yr CAGR at 5.44% or higher.
• Since 2019, OKW's lowest 5yr CAGR was 5.46% (in 2019). Other years since 2019 have had a 5yr CAGR between 6.07% and 6.82%.
• Since 2018, HHI's 5yr CAGRs have ranged from 5.08% - 7.91%.
• Since 2021, VB's 5yr CAGRs have ranged from 5.79% - 8.55%, but from 2012-2020 they were 2.64% - 4.81%.

I think this last point shows that big dues increases can come out of nowhere and stick around for years--and I'm inclined to agree with this thread that the risk is unusually high for beach resorts for non-forecastable increases. So much so that I think this thread talked me out of AUL points...

 

[VGCgroupie]

I have some numerical stuff to contribute, I guess...

5yr CAGR of AUL peaked at 5.05% for 2020 dues. Overall range has been 3.46% - 5.05%. Overall, this can be considered the middle of the road for rate of dues increases.

For comparison:

• VGC's lowest ever 5yr CAGR was 4.89% for the 2019 dues...other years have had a 5yr CAGR at 5.09% or higher.
• BLT's lowest ever 5yr CAGR was 3.47% (in 2024). Other years have had 4.63% - 6.29%.
• VGF's highest ever 5yr CAGR is 3.64% (in 2023). Other years have had 2.52% - 3.58%.
• Since 2019, SSR's lowest 5yr CAGR was 4.91% (in 2024). Other years since 2019 have had a 5yr CAGR at 5.44% or higher.
• Since 2019, OKW's lowest 5yr CAGR was 5.46% (in 2019). Other years since 2019 have had a 5yr CAGR between 6.07% and 6.82%.
• Since 2018, HHI's 5yr CAGRs have ranged from 5.08% - 7.91%.
• Since 2021, VB's 5yr CAGRs have ranged from 5.79% - 8.55%, but from 2012-2020 they were 2.64% - 4.81%.

I think this last point shows that big dues increases can come out of nowhere and stick around for years--and I'm inclined to agree with this thread that the risk is unusually high for beach resorts for non-forecastable increases. So much so that I think this thread talked me out of AUL points...

Love this info. Thank you!