Thoughts on adding on direct after inital resale purchase?

Your math seems good to me. The one extra factor to consider is that larger contracts tend to go cheaper per point.
This past summer I paid $121 for 160 points at BLT, then $185 for 25 more ($24,000 total). Had I bought 200 at $115, it would have cost me $23000.
Yes, I could have had 15 extra points for $1000 less, assuming I could have found a contract like that, but I would have to pay more in MFs for them, and I would be missing out on the perks that I am already enjoying.
I have loved the resale + direct add on combo. If I find that I am ever running low on points, I can use my discounted AP to get a discount on resort hotel rooms, or can use my AP to get free parking as a stay at a resort off property. It opens up a lot more options for me.

The problem is that they have started to indiscriminately alter the perks.

For instance: with rising costs driving down attendance in Florida parks...they gave a great AP discount for 2018. The logic is that won't happen with Star Wars next year...

I was sure of that 4 weeks ago...then I saw the recent movie and I'm only 80% sure.

I think that future demand could all but eliminated dvc perks...it's a captive audience and parks are about to Become their primary profit center. If they don't have to lure you there...they will not.
 
BLT is/was $185 per point direct. So the direct cost is about 25*185= $4,625. If you could have saved 2,500-3,000 than direct your extra 25 point (185 total resale) $4,625-$2,500= $2,125. So you at the most would have spent $2,125 on that contract with 25 more points than the one you bought. $2,125/25 points= $85 per point. That is a nice price per point and most likely won’t be that low for 10 or so years. So your rate on return is much longer for buying direct. My math could be wrong, it’s not the first time, nor the last. Current prices for BLT are around $130 per point. $130*25= $3,250. Direct for 25 is $4,625. $4,625-$3,250=$1,375. So return rate is less at current prices.

Your math seems good to me. The one extra factor to consider is that larger contracts tend to go cheaper per point.
This past summer I paid $121 for 160 points at BLT, then $185 for 25 more ($24,000 total). Had I bought 200 at $115, it would have cost me $23000.
Yes, I could have had 15 extra points for $1000 less, assuming I could have found a contract like that, but I would have to pay more in MFs for them, and I would be missing out on the perks that I am already enjoying.
...

We bought earlier, paid $106pp for 160 points. So assuming closing costs for resale are approximately constant, we paid $21585 for 185 points. At the time we were buying, 200 point contracts could be had for $100 per point. So then another way of looking at this was, Would I rather have 185 points with direct perks, or 215 points without perks? I’m not sure I would go for direct perks, actually, as compared with 30 more points to use every year. At least With the points, they’re not at risk of being taken away each year.

At the same time, I did figure that for our family of 3.5, it would take 3-4 years of APs to recoup the cost of the 25 direct points, which also seems like a no brained because we are most likely going to get APs and TiW based on how we vacation.

So, still a wash, IMO. 30 points a year is 1-2 more nights a year depending on where and when you stay.
 
One other possible perk that we might use/value in the future, that I didn’t consider until we were owners and had gone on a Disney Cruise, is the option of going on a member’s cruise. Not by using our points (25 direct doesn’t pay for much!) but paying cash and then spending some time at WDW before or after.
 
We bought earlier, paid $106pp for 160 points. So assuming closing costs for resale are approximately constant, we paid $21585 for 185 points. At the time we were buying, 200 point contracts could be had for $100 per point. So then another way of looking at this was, Would I rather have 185 points with direct perks, or 215 points without perks? I’m not sure I would go for direct perks, actually, as compared with 30 more points to use every year. At least With the points, they’re not at risk of being taken away each year.

At the same time, I did figure that for our family of 3.5, it would take 3-4 years of APs to recoup the cost of the 25 direct points, which also seems like a no brained because we are most likely going to get APs and TiW based on how we vacation.

So, still a wash, IMO. 30 points a year is 1-2 more nights a year depending on where and when you stay.

One other possible perk that we might use/value in the future, that I didn’t consider until we were owners and had gone on a Disney Cruise, is the option of going on a member’s cruise. Not by using our points (25 direct doesn’t pay for much!) but paying cash and then spending some time at WDW before or after.

So it sounds like my best option would have been to build a time machine and go back about 4 months in time in order to save $2000, plus I would have then gotten to retake my awesome summer Disney trip!

I know what you mean about there just being some extra potential built in value to being a direct DVC member. Yes, I could have stayed at Disney an extra night or two every year or so, but now I get to plan trips around DVC only extra hours events, I get to plan to go to the waterparks next year because I got the Platinum Plus pass for cheap, and as dumb as it is, I am looking forward to seeing a 'DVC Member' magnet on my door when I take a Disney cruise this spring. It just makes the membership feel a little more complete. I no longer have to wonder how much I would have used the extra benefits, because I know I have the option to take advantage of them whenever I want to.
 

So it sounds like my best option would have been to build a time machine and go back about 4 months in time in order to save $2000, plus I would have then gotten to retake my awesome summer Disney trip!

I know what you mean about there just being some extra potential built in value to being a direct DVC member. Yes, I could have stayed at Disney an extra night or two every year or so, but now I get to plan trips around DVC only extra hours events, I get to plan to go to the waterparks next year because I got the Platinum Plus pass for cheap, and as dumb as it is, I am looking forward to seeing a 'DVC Member' magnet on my door when I take a Disney cruise this spring. It just makes the membership feel a little more complete. I no longer have to wonder how much I would have used the extra benefits, because I know I have the option to take advantage of them whenever I want to.

Funny, because the hypothetical benefits, if not taken, aren't actually worth it *to me*, so I am left wondering whether I would have used 215 points better or perks... Moonlight Magic or other events aren't really worth a ton to us since for the foreseeable future we're traveling during school vacation times, so we aren't likely to use the member events benefits. And we stayed 6 days last August on either end of the cruise (where yes we had DVC magnets, but we actually joined a fish extender group that was more fun), and even with PP+ we didn't visit a single water park! Not to mention that the water parks were $25 to enter, so getting the PP+ over the gold may not have been a *huge* benefit, but they sure did a good job selling it.

The reason why I mentioned the member cruise was because that is a benefit that we are pretty sure we will use at least once, and it makes sense as DVC members because it's usually just less than a week, so you can add on days at WDW before or after. We didn't think we'd like the Disney cruise as much as we did, and we can foresee doing at least 1-2 more in the next 5-10 years.
 















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